GFS brought the Monday storm a tad north. CMC has a huge storm and this model has been the best 5 to 8 days out. Euro is in between with a 3 to 5 event and over a foot for the jersey shore. Cold front is crawling through here so the times of overnight will probably be right. Thought these passing showers would be the drop in temps but still an hour away..still standing at 46 here and low is 24 tonight. EDIT: Oh..FJF..I didnt check the middle of the week storm yet..but if you go long term EURO/GFS and CMC they all have one Sunday night/ Monday...one Wedensday..and one umm...sorry...Saturday/Sunday.
ah, cmc. never checked that one, looking now, and yea i see that for monday could be an issue. st patty's day and snow on the roads = bad mix man, bad mix. hit the freezing mark now, wind is blowing pretty good and some kind of frozen water is falling lightly. gonna be a slick ride in tomorrow.
A faint drizzle at the moment, but the wind is picking up, and the temp dropped noticeably. A storm's definitely coming!
Maybe not precip RP..maybe...on and off light..but the winds? Holy crapola. Just checked a 12 hour map and if its correct...the winds tonight will wake many out of their beds. Warm up the car tomorrow...gonna freeze the asses off of us.
CMC Canadian model has been spot on in this time frame...and sucks within 24 hours. Hard to understand but if says storm 5 days out....I listen big time FJF. Yeah..friggin winds...we are getting some sleet coming down now..light..very light..but cold? Its coming.
alright last update the porch is covered in a bit of ice and snow, winds are whipping at 29mph temp down to 25 with a wind chill of 14. thats a 7 degree drop in 2hours. radar shows clear so thats a plus. safe commute in the A.M. everyone
great update FJF..wow..now that is a temp drop. Here was 56..now 32..brief light snow but now just flurries. That aint the story...wind chill is 22..and it will end up near zero by sunrise.
Have to keep an eye out for Sunday night Monday..is it a storm for D.C./Philly/Central and South Jersey? Or is it for them and all the way up the coast. Now on this one...think its all the way up the coast. GFS is the only more southern track but NAM just came in north..so will GFS.
Waiting for the EURO but looking a bit south..just a tad from us. Sets up south jersey and philly for heavier snows. Im talking like 6 to 12 as you go south..and 3 to 5 up here. Last storm we mentioned that the models would do better once the players hit land but all and all they did pretty well with being north from 6 or 7 days out if my memory serves me. Canadian went south too. Now, wouldnt surprise me if EURO goes north. Its like a yoyo. EURO coming out now.
Jay My 4:25 PM flight from memphis to Newark today has been cancelled due to weather. They are flying me to Houston first and then from Houston to Newark. That said, what type of weather issue do we have for tonight that they cancelled my flight? I checked weather channel and other than brutal cold, I didn't see a reason for this cancellation.
has to be wind Brook...has to be. That should subside in the next few hours here. Still, Newark is running flights. The only thing I can think of is your plane connection coming from a bad spot? The Houston move is buying time move to let the winds subside...which they will. I cant believe they are delaying flights because of it but it has to be.
BROOK....FROM THEIR WEBSITE..ITS WIND: Ground Delay Program - This airport has issued a Ground Delay Program affecting flights arriving between 1:23 PM Mar 13 and 7:59 PM Mar 13 due to WEATHER / WIND. Flights are being delayed an average of 32 minutes.
Now I think we have talked about ensembles..the word ensembles. Each model has ensembles. Its shows the model run and then averages out what all the different runs show. Now the model run itself is what most look at but the real weather dudes look at their ensembles because it has different inputs and then averages them out. So while the run will show one thing, the ensembles generally show something close..but different. Reason im puking all of that is because if you go by the ensemble runs for both the GFS and the EURO..this storm on Monday is something to seriously track...big time. Much potential with this storm and each average run shows it farther north. Really needs to be watched from Northern VA to Boston.
