Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Feel the same way JWWS. I think sometimes people get confused over following storms and wanting storms. My selfish way of looking at it is this..and its selfish. If its not going to pour snow this late in the season....keep it. If the model pointed out a 24 inch storm..Im all on board. If they are pointing out 3 to 6....keep it at this point. I hear you with the piles of snow. Today should do some damage with near 60 or maybe over.

Yeah JWWS, its looking minimal but right now, we dodged a bullet. Models did trend south overnight. FJF and people on north need to keep their eyes out on this one. Once you get into the Lower Hudson Valley there are hints that this thing could trend a bit more south. Now a bit more south is the difference between 2 to 4 and over 8. Needs to be watched.

 

Wow...great one RP. Funny thing is is that this setup is familiar to March storms that can do things like what that blizzard did. Very warm temps with very cold temps on the backside. The difference in temps causes major..MAJOR instability. This is a baby compared to that storm..but has many of the same ingredients. Nice comp sir.

 

Now, there are many things being modeled that could happen..so lets just point out a few.

1. The rain snow line will be moving. It starts north and crashes south behind the eye of the storm. When that center passes you, you will know it big time. Temps in many areas will drop 25 to 35 degrees in a 3 to 6 hour timeframe.
2. Thunderstorms. The cold air beating down on the warm air will have the same makeup as a spring thunderstorm...with lightning....thunder...rain...and snow to boot.
3. Winds. Now some will look outside and say where are the winds...because the center of the storm will generally pass directly over North Jersey and NYC, things could be calm..just like when the eye of a hurricane passes over...but as soon as the center passes..winds will switch to the northwest and they will howl.
4.Temps. Like I mentioned above, a few records will be broken with temp drops over a very short period of time. Someones temps will drop 40 degrees in less then 6 hours...almost all south of the boundary...will drop near 30 degrees in that time frame. Now the boundary is generally around where temps get into the 50s.

With all that said, if you are in an area where its all rain with no changeover to snow, this will be a very windy rainy event..not much. The most turbulent areas will be 2 spots..the areas that get almost all frozen which would be 75 miles north into NY State and the areas below that switch over to frozen between lets say there..and north jersey. What time this all happens should be ironed out better by later today.

Areas in upper NY State and Vermont and NH and Maine? Some spots will get 24-30 inches of snow.

 

Yep GD..you guys are actually on the south side of the storm right now..so some rain is accurate. Plummet is accurate too. Big drops.

 

Although the chances are less then 20%, we still need to watch the models today. The last storm bust remember, it was 24 to 36 hours before the storm that the models went south by 100 miles. While most winters this one would be pretty locked in, this winter we have to keep an eye out. Just putting this out there...I wouldnt be blown away..surprised yes..but not shocked.

 

NAM just came out and was south a bit...so now Albany NY gets .3 rain..and 1.o snow..which is of course 3/10 of an inch of rain..and 10 inches of snow.

 

Spoke a bit too early. The NAM does do that to Albany..but further south stays the same..so we are getting close to an outcome here..but man..huge snow storm for those up well north with plenty getting 18-24 and some getting 24-30

 

cheating GG..now for who..lol. Be more specific...FJF will see snow falling from the sky.

 

FM...you are in L.I.? Is that right? I think you are ok..maybe a quick snow shower at the end..but yeah....very cold in just a few hours.

 

If the latest GFS could be trusted it DOVE south..I mean..north jersey gets 8 inches of snow...NOW ITS THE GFS..so hold tight.

 

Amazing in March that parts of New England will get the biggest snow storm in years. The numbers up there...wow...big numbers.

 

And possibly a few jumpers if it gets too bad[/quote]

I cant buy the GFS model output..have you seen it FJF? I mean..it brings the near foot snow down to you. Now Im watching the EURO and it has the LOW CENTER cutting through central jersey..which is south too. Waiting to see the EURO snowmap to buy any real south trend. Will post a link for the GFS and maybe you can put it up here FJF? I cant now.

LINK: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=231791

NOW..dont take this seriously yet...again..its the GFS.


EDIT...MY BAD..MY BAD..THAT IS THE PRECIP MAP..NOT THE SNOW MAP. Now it makes sense...my fault...bad error...that is not snow so still showing 2 to 4 lower hudson valley.