Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Ok...one thing I have not discussed with these online accuweather or weather.com long range stuff is this. And its important because tons of people check those things out to get a preview of the long range.

When sites like those give previews out, its impossible for them to have one little ole weatherman at each station..so what those sites do is break down regions..and then pull data DIRECTLY from ONE particular model and say partly sunny....snow....heavy snow...showers....etc. My theory on those sites are they are decent in the summer...rain is generally rain...showers are showers..and models tend to do a better job with warmer climate predictions then the mess of winter. Cold + water coming from the sky= oil and vinegar. Warm plus moisture and water coming from the sky= common sense.

Where the hell was I going with all of this..oh..so those sites are good to find out if there is a chance of light snow or any snow..then you have to dig deeper to see what exactly that means and how much. So...in the summer...better predictions. Now someone will pop on here and say "yeah..but one time we were having a big party in my backyard and it said sunny!! and it rained!!!" Sorry?

Ok....the reason the 5 day says snow for you GQ is that it will snow but there is not one storm on the models before Sunday now that has more than 3 inches of snow.

And Jonny, even the Sunday storm AS OF NOW does not show anything big. I posted yesterday? I think about the models showing these huge storms only to peter out as they get closer. We also had a trend this winter of showing storms and then losing them...and then they return. I believe now it safe to say that that trend is done...and the new trend is monster storms long range....in reality they end up being 1 to 3 or 2 to 4.

There are 2 major storms that showed up on the models for next week that I didnt even mention. Its the new trend...and the storm that stays on the models until at least 4 days out will be the storm...and right now...it aint there folks...so enjoy!!

Will still get cold....still a chance of 1 to 3 Wednesday...and 1 to 3 Friday night..and then maybe another storm on Monday.

 

remove the zero and we are dead on GG! lol.

 

NP CBG...just checked models and no changes again..so we might be locking in this week. The only BAD news I see is this weekends temperatures. Here we go again...very cold. This is bodering on nuts. Hopefully we will see the models start to relax the temps for the weekend because its going to be cold again.

Sooo...small event Wednesday morning....Friday morning..and the only thing on the radar with potential is now next Monday...but we have seen this movie before so lets see when and if the models lose that storm too.

 

7/8 days out but at least something to track Next Monday/Tuesday time period seems to be hinting at something big. Now..again...trends lately to lose storm but this is showing consistency. The GFS brings a big snowstorm for all on this board while the EURO brings a few inches to us down here and then this thing blows up as it heads north. Bottom line is BOTH models have a pretty big storm plus 8.

So, we have to keep an eye on that to see if its still there on Wednesday/Thursday. If it is..then we might have a problem.

 

The only change I see to my above statements is that the storm on Monday could be moved up to Sunday night. Now..still showing a decent event but it did go down a hair..so is this a trend to knock this thing down? Also, 9 days out shows another big storm? True story...huge storm...around next Thursday..and usually I would be getting ready to really track one there too..it just isnt happening once they get closer.

Now the Sunday night/ Monday storm is still there..and we are getting closer..shows a 5-10 event depending on location so its not gone. Lets see where we are tonight.

 

Fred...will check long range models tonight but we can track it as it gets closer..start to give you a...kind of...idea as we get closer to this weekend for next weekend sir.

 

AND THEN..the Euro went boom. All eyes turn to this Sunday/Monday...this may very well happen guys and girls. Checking models now.

 

Jonny is away right now right? Have to look back at when he said he was leaving on Sunday...models in pretty good agreement this far out for a significant storm. Mixing issues south of Central Jersey..but this has potential. This is the first storm in awhile that the EURO jumped on board with.

Now..we do this because we read models and post totals. Current Euro has much of PA from central east to central and north Jersey...NYC...most of L.I. Hudson Valley all of Conn...and southern Mass over 12".

 

Not yet FJF..not yet...i will not even get into the huge storm models have for the following Friday...cant be.

For now, the fly in the ointment for snow lovers would be the chance of temp issues with this with all the models except the best model which is the EURO and has this storm with plenty of cold air.

So we track...all the players will be on land or close enough by Friday/night so expect some back and forth the next 48 hours. Lets see where we are with tonight's runs. Im sure many will not see this until they get home later..so read with caution. I know many of us have had it...so its early...this could fall apart..but its about a 50/50 chance now.

Significant winter storm potential Sunday evening through Monday.