I grew up down the Shore and I have seen multiple FB posts from friends and family talking about the thunder and lightning. Pretty wild....
Yeah CBG...like I said..will wait until midnight because I have seen these things change on the dime...I have jumped the gun and said things that should have happened will not..and then they did. BUT..Im really believing that the models saw the temps..saw this pouring you referenced and said SNOW. Now, believe it or not..this thing has about 6 or 7 hours left in it..so it will snow..but Im having a hard time thinking another 6 to 12 for Lower Hudson Valley and up by you..and 6 by me..or 5 or 6 nyc. Again, remember last storm when I woke up at 4am and said holy crap..its a blizzard out there..so lets see where we are at midnight. Regardless, tomorrow morning with all of this sleet and freezing rain is going to be a disaster area for many.
Just went outside and it's pouring outside .Delayed opening for school tomorrow. No classes on Friday's, so it won't be that bad
I was outside checking the snow on the roof when I could've sworn there was an explosion. Turns out it was a flash of lightning. It's been a looooooong time since I nearly shit myself from a thunderstorm.
Forget about all the mumbo jumbo but just concentrate on what I bold..and you will understand why I wouldnt jump the gun for no snow. NWS still says 6 to 10 for sussex county...passaic county...orange county..and up by you cbg. AND AS MID LEVEL TEMPS COLLAPSE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW AND BACKING OR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO NW...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW NOW OVER ERN PA SHOULD PIVOT ACROSS OVERNIGHT. BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM THESE BANDS SHOULD BE OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND NEARBY SECTIONS OF PASSAIC/ROCKLAND/PUTNAM COUNTIES...WHERE HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3 INCHES AND AN ADDITIONAL 6-10 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION NOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FARTHER EAST...NWP MODELS DO NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT QPF...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND FRONTOGENESIS/POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION TO ITS REAR MOVING DIRECTLY ACROSS OVERNIGHT...THINK AT LEAST 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW STILL IN THE CARDS FOR NYC METRO AND WESTERN CT/LONG ISLAND. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS LIKELY AFT MIDNIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA
ha...its something in the summer where you would just keep walking..and when you are outside in the winter...its shock and awe..so unexpected...good info AM.
Was in the models GQ...Morris county? I just dont think so now..maybe 3 to 6 but lets see..it could be more..lets see how this pivots through..we will know by midnight.
ok good. I'm going to feel the shoveling. I don't know if I have enough left to do another 3 cars under a foot of heavy wet snow.
Turned to snow here in Wayne..im guessing its snowing now in Morris County...radar to the south is filling in again so expect heavy bursts of snow..this will continue to pivot east and north.
GFS model just spit out a snowstorm for New England for Saturday/Saturday night...Euro is a bit weaker but showing a storm For us down here it would mean 2 to 4..but up there? Marshall? Could get a foot..IF THE MODEL CHANGE IS CORRECT.
LOL..im losing it guys..I have about 7 windows open right now and I just was searching for the GFS button on my little toy here and was pissed...Im scrolling up and down...and it lasted about 7 seconds..and realized I was in the BS forum. Losing it.
Ok...bad news...and im kind of hoping this doesnt play out but trends..trends trends...If this storm on Saturday trends a few more ticks to the WEST...phili on north could get now 4 to 6 AT LEAST..and areas Conn a bit more then up to MASS where a major snowstorm could occur. This was not seen to be anything but a quick hitter..but this winter...you cant close your eyes for a second. I dont think our area could handle another storm...I really dont believe it could. Now does this continue to trend? Are we sitting here at this time tomorrow night talking about a 6 to 12 event? Right now its less than 50 percent...but this winter? Wouldnt be shocked.
Jay, I've been reading the thread throughout the whole storm and I appreciate the work that you have done. What do you predict for Westchester over the last six or so hours of the storm?
San, I am having a real problem with this second batch. If you go by the NWS forecast for your area, they are not budging off another 6 inches of snow...but looking at the radar..I mean..have seen this before where it dries up and fills back in. I would cut it back to 3 to 6...but i really thought by midnight that would become more clear but right now, it has not. 3 to 6 I would think..and thanks for the words..happy to help out and I enjoy it.
Im hearing reports out in PA of heavy snow...as this storm continues to pivot..I dont know..but still at least 3 to 6 is a good bet for many..with higher amounts in a few areas. If you look at the radar and some areas slowing down you would say no...but its going to happen I believe.
