If it aint rain DPF..its more than that. It will not be just rain..would start as snow and maybe transition...just do not see that happening up there..or down here.
hey jay, are you all in on this happening thursday? i'm hearing some hedging and waffling on what may happen
Jay, What areas are looking at 18-24? I own a trucking company based in Edison, NJ and I use your forecast to make business decision often when it comes to weather. Cant say enough how much I appreciate the work you put in and updates you provide for everyone on this board. If you could give a brief idea of what Edison, NJ, Denver, PA and Boston, MA are looking at in terms snow totals that would be helpful.
by me?...geez..hope not FJF....this will be one of the biggest snowstorms for the east coast ever. If the models are correct..there really is nothing much more to say about this one...it will dump more snow in more states than any storm I can remember. Thats why I was never buying this mixing thing..not this storm...too strong.
Thanks a lot FM..really happy I can help you but with this storm..heres the question...where does that line setup. Right now it looks like D.C. to Central Jersey..but hey...at this point..its all nonsense now. Here is what I mean. Thats why Im not trying to be vague with you guys tonight...just that, I mean, holy crap. This doesnt include the south..it continues...so..prepare everyone for over 18 is my opinion. Sorry I can not nail that down..but like the blizzard of 96..you will get pockets of over 30...and you will get areas of 10 to 12 and that is not going to play out until, in your case, its too late.
FM, Looking at Denver, PA location, I would think that would be the least. If fact, its pretty safe to say. You never know, but that has the best chance of the 12s compared to the bigger numbers.
this just posted for Denver, PA. ...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... .A STRONG STORM WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE STORM TRACK AND EVENTUAL NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVY SNOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF HARRISBURG COULD PICK UP MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. PAZ064>066-111745- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0003.140213T0600Z-140214T0300Z/ ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER 232 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...LANCASTER...YORK AND ADAMS COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY ON THURSDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. * TIMING...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
brook, Understand, im just going by models overnight. Woke up early here. Here is the deal. If the models are correct, you will not be getting out until Saturday I believe. I just cant see how that happens. They will not even begin working on airport runways full time until Thursday night. Imagine the long jam after that. Some airports will be closed over 24 hours...IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT. Only the GFS says less than 12...and they had no snow for anyone really 2 days ago and now they have over 2 feet for New England and over a foot for D.C. Get out Wednesday bud.
Just checked the Lunar Cycle, full moon on Friday. Amazing how these record breakers find the lunar cycle. Beach erosion..ok...Im not the scary guy kind....but this storm. I have mentioned the Blizzard of 96 a few times because of course, its length...but this storm...full moon...coast hugger..winds over 30...Snow storm in perhaps double digit states...this COULD BE the one of the big ones ever.
not snow totals but precip totals: I mean...come on. Even Im getting too told for a storm like this. You you have got to be kidding me..thats over an inch of precip for 19 states? 19 states? Of those 19 states, only Florida I believe will not have a winter storm warning. From Alabama north.
Start time midnight Wednesday or around...end time late Thursday evening..but some models have it hanging around until Friday Morning. Will post maps during the day and update with any changes but guys, Im sure there will be minor adjustments...but swings 30 miles west or east mean not much at this point if you asked me. The only areas I could fathom any mixing at all would be Cape may N.J on north to around A.C....and Eastern and Central L.I....and that would be short lived...not sure that is even the case. So will be in an out today..enjoy...snow haters..sorry, I feel your pain on this one...and I have no idea where anyone plans to put all of this snow IF IT HAPPENS...and it..ummm...will happen. GG...feel free to throw any maps in there...if you throw the NAM in there be careful..tends to be a bit high...see you guys later..and prepare.
Jay local guys still talking 3 to 6 and mixing / high temps mid 30 s,,,,,this from John Elliot ch 2,,,,,,also says that the euro gives the city around 4 or 5 inches but north and west 8 or 9,,,,,,he says the GFS says less,,,,,,,,,,Lee Goldberg said similar stuff last nite on ch7,,,,,, I post this stuff because I know u never will,,,,,you rarely bad mouth these other weather guys when they are wrong. They have the same info as you, they know about trends and all this other weather stuff but,,,,,,,,,also. Ch2 says this storm begins " Thursday at 4 a m and is done by late Thursday nite , if I read you correctly jay you said it starts Wednesday after midnight am I correct about that ? Be safe all and keep em coming Jay,,,thanks again
not you jay, you been pretty steady, locals have been all over the map though. so figure on 18" and work from there? when do you see the roads getting bad?
I'm in minimum post hell, I can't see images. Jay, Boston weather guys are saying not a big deal(although some have alluded to that changing quickly. Is this storm over 12" for us or is it lower with mixing rain?
I just read MARSHALLS POST about Boston and then this one..and Im scratching my head. Dont know what models they are looking at...no...I DO KNOW..they are following the GFS...thats the only thing I can see. Its like following Warrior or Little Richard into battle...so I guess they go Little Richard. Truly, anyone that is not seeing the potential for over 12? I dont know what to say. Starting time could be 4am CBG...but it could be midnight bud.
I absolutely hate snow, but if I got a pocket of 30" of snow, I would be thrilled. Just because on top of the foot we have, I would have never seen that before.
Jay I hear you and have the upmost faith in you! Your batting average is ridiculous compared to these tv weather guys,,,,,keep us posted and if anyone is watching the local weather guys you can see what I posted,,,,," mixing" " rain" " 3 to " 6 ",,,,,,no one is saying big snow except Jay !
