Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

DREW: Would be shocked if you have school tomorrow.

WW: Underground lines...brilliant..brilliant. How smart is that. Good luck with the storm and give us tonight whats going on. You are on the border and would like to know if thats how it worked out...mix all night long.

 

Greg, this storm will come in hot and heavy. The snow will fall from the first 5minutes and right now, I would think by 5am it will be coming down hard. I will check that later this evening to see if its still on target but at 5am, the changeover should have not yet happened.

 

DF..dont get me started on the naming of storms. To me, its the blizzard of 96..the superstorm of 93..old school. I will never refer to the storms by name..only by date..lol.

Boston is on the fringe of numbers of 6..or 12 because of the changeover to sleet. Once that happens, if you have 6...its 6. Even heavy sleet will only weigh down whats there. Thats the problem with the places set for big numbers. I still think Boston and for sure west of Boston ends up with 8 or 9 minimum...easily...before any changeover.

 

CMAN..you are the last guy Im going to warn..lol....wouldnt surprise me if you set the alarm and just have it running at 3am...just because it sounds good outside.

 

I mean..look at the size of this thing..this is a monster loaded with precip. Huge storm.

LINK: http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/weather-radar?play=1

EDIT: Also look at the gulf of Mexico just feeding this thing..incredible storm.

 

Here is to answer all questions about when the most snow would fall. Here is my forecast for North Jersey:

Tonight Snow, mainly after midnight. Low around 26. Calm wind becoming northeast 5 to 7 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Wednesday Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before noon, then freezing rain and sleet likely between noon and 3pm, then a chance of snow and freezing rain after 3pm. High near 31. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of around a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Notice what is says for overnight tonight...3 to 7 inches..which means most snow will fall before 7am AT LEAST. Snow may continue after that.

FM: Tough one bud...I hate these because some of these will bust so bad. The difference between 3 inches and 9 inches is the difference between it turning to sleet at 6am or 9am..and thats the truth.

But..here goes.

North Jersey...north of I80 and West of 287 6-9 and then sleet
NYC and you..western L.I. wow..very tough: 2-5 and then sleet..freezing rain..and perhaps even rain at the end.
CMAN: 3-6..then heavy sleet..freezing rain.
Lower Hudson Valley 7-11..then even sleet before it ends.
Conn: Western Conn/5-9 then sleet. Eastern Conn/3-6 then sleet and freezing rain.
Mass west of Boston: 8-12 maybe even higher..east of Boston: 4-8 sleet/freeziing rain..but it should be closer to 8.

Again, some of these will bust badly. Main reason just isnt changeover fast..but the snow is coming in so fast that many areas that changeover might get a huge amount before..and then just light sleet at the end.

Tonight..after seeing the line progress will have a much better idea..but thats it for now.

 

That would be a great guess FJF...great guess. I keep using the NJ/PA border but yes...I 84 would be a great spot. Now as you get closer to the Tapp...the line goes a bit north if you know what I mean.

Oh and your welcome FJF...anytime bud.

 

ding ding ding ding...Jonnny wins the prize. Was waiting for someone to freak out about that.

YES..as of today..the storm for Sunday is not a record breaking blizzard..but normal 3 to 6 event.

And right now, Im not buying it for a second. Now, it could still be a decent snow storm but Im not buying its gone. Have seen the models lose storms like this before.

Heres what I think Jon, if the storm that hits us overnight tonight is just 50 miles north, how the hell could the models know whats going to happen 6 days from now? If the input we give these models cant be correct for this storm, you cant get the correct setup for Sunday/Monday.

I think the models will understand whats going on for that time period by tomorrow night..after they crap out this storm.

But yes, good observation buddy, its gone right now.

 

Right after the Ranger game, I will be on live and in color until at least 1am CBG...I have nothing tomorrow...so feel free to join me live. We can check out the radar and see whats going on south that will help us up here to know what should happen here.

Figure around 10pm, will be on tonite for autographs...and pushing some of these guests to sign up.

I have to tell you...I never EVER check to see whos in here but last storm I was about to answer a good question and I looked down to see if that person was in here and there were like 20 guests? HUH? That cant be right..are there ever any people checking this out? If so, you guys are all losers unless you sign up to TGG...losers....I say that in a loving way...if any guests are really out there, sign up to the site.

 

and talking about the Sunday/Monday storm...you guys know by now I try to ignore smaller storms. Now something weird all week and I have paid NO attention to it...but all week long Saturday has been showing a small nothing disturbance and then the big one.

Well, before I checked the ensembles for both dates and the werid thing is, a few ensembels for Saturday had a huge storm? Thought that was very weird and wondering if them models might now be confused by the 2 systems.

Regardless, still think the big one will come...but is it Saturday?