Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

801 PM...44 DEGREES.

Man, what a disappointment. How can you explain this. Yeah, protection sucks but still. Feel bad for the guy.

 

We can start to put the first storm..and I cant believe Im sitting here at halftime with people upstairs looking at models..brutal half..but the first storm trend to the north is pretty much close to a lock.

Lower Hudson Valley: 2 to 4

NW NJ 2 to 4

Rest of NNJ 4 TO 8

NYC 3 TO 6 because of mixing issues to start and warmer temps

Central NJ 6 TO 10 with some isolated areas over 12 where the banding sets up.

CMAN and south central PA to just west of phili 5 to 8.

South Jersey mixing issues: 2 to 4 and traces as you get closer to the coast.

Now, this storm will be VERY impressive because its a short duration storm. There will be a 4 hour period where it comes down VERY VERY hard so this will be a tough traveling storm. It looks like right now the hard snows come in at the end of morning rush hour and will be well over by evening rush hour.

Will post maps later.

Will talk about middle of the week storm but the weekend storm? Still huge potential.

 

Tough call..i think going home might be a bit easier because its over by then CBG.

Now if you go by the American short range model, it shows 6 to 12 STATEWIDE.

This storm has not stopped gaining strength and its a fast mover. I think the reason is believe it or not, it entered USA soil only hours ago so the best input just started.

This leads me to believe..in fact..going out on a limb but the Wednesday storm will over perform in a big way too. That is the trend of the winter so far. Closer means more.

Will start reviewing model evening outputs now.

Tomorrow is a tough call for everyone because at some point and hopefully its late rush hour..but at some point is going to snow as hard as its done all winter long. The hardest part of the storm will only last 3 to 4 hours..but it will be very intense.

I think because NWS has downplayed this storm and lets face it...I was concentrating on the other 2 storms too..this storm has slipped through the cracks a bit and I expect Winter Storm Warnings for the entire state by tomorrow A.M.

That will surprise many Im sure. Up in Lower Hudson Valley is a real tough call but still think 3 to 6 can happen even though no legit model is showing more than 1 to 3.

 

NWS FORECAST FOR THE WEEK. Wow?

A chance of rain and snow before 3am, then snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. North wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Monday Snow, mainly before 3pm. High near 30. North wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 20. North wind around 6 mph.

Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 38. Light and variable wind.

Tuesday Night Snow likely before 2am, then snow and sleet. Low around 29. Calm wind becoming northeast around 6 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Wednesday Rain and snow before 11am, then rain likely between 11am and 3pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 3pm. High near 36. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 18.

Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 31.

Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 13.

Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 31.

Friday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

 

CMAN...BUD...if these latest short range models are right...you are going to get your biggest snows in years from THIS storm.

CMAN..cancel your appointment now...sit back..and enjoy. You are getting close to a foot. The latest models have you over a foot. Lets stay conservative and go 10 to 12.

 

Now remember I mentioned the short range models were a bit too far north...and here is a correction. It also shows..well..you can look at the numbers. This storm is a shocker to say the least.

 

This storm is IDENTICAL to the last storm that failed to give the Lower Hudson Valley big numbers..but dont worry guys to the north...you guys are on deck for the next one, promise.

 

Exactly. They just caught this trend now? Nuts.

The only thing that could drive down CMANS number is temps..and a much lower snow ratio. If temps do not get close to freezing and stay in the mid 30s. That might lower totals some.

 

Here is Mount Holly who handles these areas with accum predictions numbers. Now those to the north are handled by Upton..but you get the point.

Quite honestly, these numbers..especially for central N.J. are embarrassing. I do not understand these numbers for a second...and its almost like the guys in charge there tonight are trying to be smarter than ALL the models.



With less than 5 hours before snow breaks out, lets see how they do..and watch them scramble tomorrow to fix this.

 

Ok guys..be on in morning but looks like a buzz saw tomorrow. Like I said, its not a long storm but a huge hit and run. I think, to date, the snowfall rates will be the highest with this storm compared to the rest this winter for much of N.J.

There will be some getting close to...or a bit over a foot of snow in less than 7 hours.

See ya on the morning and be careful if you have to go to work.

 

checked one last time and right now here is what the models short range are calling for..and I totally agree.

CMAN country and around: 8 to 12
Central Jersey: 8-14
North Jersey: 6-10 higher amounts along I80
NYC: 7 to 11 would be higher but higher temps have a brief start as rain
Lower Hudson Valley: 3 to 6 Higher amounts closer to Jersey border..lower amounts up higher into the Valley.
Central and south Conn: 4 to 8
Mass: 1 to 2 to the south only...NW mass nothing.

Again, quick storm..areas in Central N.J to Phili and near CMAN may have periods of over 2 inches an hour for several hours.

EDIT: Latest Euro has even the Lower Hudson Valley in the near warning range which means even the Lower Hudson Vally could be in the 4 to 8 range.