Here is the COMBO..COMBO Monday/Wednesday storm. This storm for Wednesday has trended south with the Low Pressure which means much more snow. These numbers are tough to combine..but figure most of the snow north of New Jersey is from the second storm. Marshall..I will have one to the north later but going by eye, the storm on Wednesday dumps over a foot of snow for almost all of MASS.
Its beginning to lock in to the North..areas north of NJ are getting over a foot of snow from the Wednesday storm. A line about 80 miles wide from central PA Poconos Lower/Upper Hudson Valley, Central Western Conn, All of Mass with perhaps the coast still not confirmed..lower half of VT/NH..most of R.I. and Maine all getting between 10 and 15 inches of snow. Now areas south...CMAN in lower PA to just west of Phili...central west N.J. NNJ east of the city...most of Conn are also in that range but have entered it only in the last few model runs so cant really lock that in. On the border the last few runs are everyone else from NYC to central/western L.I. One more decent trend south would put 90 percent of the Mid Atlantic north of DE/MD in the over 8 inch zone. The good thing about this if you hate snow is that this change has removed the Ice storm danger for many...but has put them in the snow category.
Winter Storm watch issued for Monday south and east of I95 until you get south of Newark where the WSW is for almost everyone in the rest of NJ. Right now, they are saying 3 to 6 but those numbers are way too low for areas in central NJ. To the north, this has to be watched because a 50 mile shift north would bring 6 plus to NNJ...especially Northeast N.J. and NYC. Lower hudson valley still to far north to get anything over 3.
Expect school closings around 30 miles south of I80 for MONDAY. Thats for now..expect that locations north will enter the possible close picture also. The question is does it get to I80 and does it get further north of there. This storm has been on the radar all week but dwarfed by the 2 storms after it..so not followed as much and will end up being a really strong storm for those in central N.J. at least.
Winter weather advisory for North Jersey/NYC..all areas listed. Areas to the south of these locations under a Winter Storm Watch that will be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning some time this evening. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 301 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014 ...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED ON MONDAY... CTZ005-006-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078-176>179- 030415- /O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.140203T1000Z-140204T0000Z/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD- WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN- EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION- EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 301 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY. * LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND. * HAZARD TYPES...WET SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. * WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...10 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE MID 30S TONIGHT AND LOWER 30S EARLY MONDAY MORNING. * VISIBILITIES...A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. * TIMING...LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX SHOULD COMMENCE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES HEAVIER EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND END BY EARLY EVENING. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS...MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL. THE WET SNOW MAY ADD EXTRA WEIGHT TO TREE BRANCHES AND POWER LINES...POTENTIALLY CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
And finally the Tuesday night/ Wednesday storm only. MARSHALL...this has storm totals up by you too. Again, tonights sampling gets much better but you have an idea who is in the jackpot zone as of today and lets face it, this storm is only 3 days away now so its getting close to lock in time.
Enjoy the game guys and congrats to Peyton Manning on winning his second Superbowl. Sorry, cant stand the Seahawks. See ya later tonight.
good info jay, NWS just issued a hazardous weather outlook. looks like big snow tuesday wednesday with a little ice mixed in. 2' of snow by the end of the week is looking very realistic
Any chance the AC area could avoid most of this? Loving the warm weather today. T-shirt, gym shorts, flip flops.
Its possible that far south but its not possible the temps dont tumble even down there. Might have a rain/snow issue that prevents higher numbers...but tough call. Here is the the latest short range model. Now its important..very important that these 24 to 48 hour models start getting really accurate as the storm is about to start. Even this far out they tend to be a bit overdone. With that said, the northern trend continues. As of yesterday, all models had maybe a flurry for Lower Hudson Vally and maybe 1 to 3 for North Jersey. I think its safe to say that this north trend is real...Im just not sure ifs THIS real with the below outcome. I would take 2 inches off the numbers...but then again, with the trend? Tough call. MONDAY STORM: I read this map quickly and just checked out by CMAN and as far north as FJF..and I dont know..I cant see it swinging this high up north. I could be wrong but I think this model will back off in about 8 hours. or so. Lets see what where we are tonight...but this is a huge trend north. EDIT: I JUST LOOKED BACK AT LAST STORM AND I POSTED THE RUC MODEL...im going to leave it here just so you can see how models have biases...but I would throw this model out right now. It did the same thing last storm. Lets leave it here so if this somehow happens, we can store it for future..if it doesnt...we confirm the RUC model at 24 hours out is not worth it.
And now the RGEM model...a bit more realistic? Not sure..but lower numbers but still..HUGE shift north with the higher numbers.
and now for PA. Just to show CMAN we have his back baby: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 506 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014 PAZ033>036-064>066-030815- /O.UPG.KCTP.WW.Y.0007.140203T0500Z-140203T2100Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0003.140203T0500Z-140203T2100Z/ SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG... CHAMBERSBURG...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER 506 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...EXTREME SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL BETWEEN 5 AND 11 AM. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. * WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.
All depending on the weekend storm FJF..because I really believe you will be halfway home at least after Wednesday..and you might even get a head start tomorrow depending if this shift north is real..and continues. Perhaps 2 to 4.
Yeah...as of now. I think you might get a bit more than that..but AC down to Cape May has had a problem with these storms that have dropped a lot of snow in south central N.J...the heavy precip has not made it down there. I meant more the shorts GD..lol...we all lose these great temps for the rest of the week at least.
IM QUOTING MYSELF SO EVERYONE READS THE BOLDED PARAGRAPH ABOVE. VERY IMPORTANT. We leave this here to show a different mind set...but I would not go with this model right now.
yeah baby we're ready! Got the Ariens gassed and on standby! I got a job in northern Maryland tomorrow at noonish. I'm going to try and move that up or reschedule.
Do it cman....enjoy the snow buddy. OK..LET MOVE BACK TO THE GAME!! Right now a line of showers has been sitting west of the stadium and not staying together enough to drop a few showers there. I would think one of these will make it through and at some point during the game, they get into a little bit of the wet stuff. Below is the radar. I also have to give kudos to the models..remember about 2 weeks ago we are talking maybe snow AND 20S..maybe 50 degrees and it was all because of this front that is passing through the stadium as we speak and will bring snow tomorrow. Cold front comes through and the first half will be more comfortable than the second half. Not huge change but perhaps about a 10 degree drop from now until the end of the game. ENJOY!! LOCAL RADAR: http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/weather-radar?play=1
