Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

I am Brook..but not a constant. I do no weather stuff there because quite honestly..and this may sound a bit selfish, my phone goes crazy around storm time from friends and family. I like to hide in here. I have no idea why my phone goes crazy but Im guessing they know Im following this stuff more than they are.

I have several, people?, lets call them that request info a week or two in advanced and several that request info the night before.

Its the reason I do not do this stuff through social media. I dont need anyone crying that their storm did not get them out of work..off of school..uninvited to their inlaws house etc..lol.

I may in the near future do a website for it but it would not be through facebook. Reason being is if Im wrong...I truly do not care to hear it or am bothered by it. I do it because I really love snowstorms..hurricanes etc. I do not do it to be right.

Hope that makes sense and again...the reason I hide in here. You guys have never been critical when the the weather doesnt go your way and I feel bad lets say when CMAN doesnt get his storm not because Im wrong...but I know CMAN loves storms. Again, hope that make sense!

 

Ok...the reason I asked CBG if he posted pics was because of this pic posted above. Apparently, this pic or a pic like it..went viral. Im sure it was not from my post here..doubt it. Regardless, wow...did it cause a buzz.

As you can see, I went out of my way to say this was NOT one storm but an entire week of storms. I mean..explained it to death.

Someone out there took this pic from the model websites stating Worst storm ever..for next weekend. True story. This is one of the reasons I DESPISE aspects of Social media. You had news agency's chasing down weather people about the storm of the century for next weekend.

So any pics I post here, Im sure if anyone wants to pull them..make sure you pull the whole story. Thanks.

 

and todays Euro run, it trended even further south..which for snow lovers north is a great thing.

It puts Lower Hudson Valley in basically a full snow storm. NNJ pretty much the same west of 287..and east of 287....big snows before bad ice.

So the trend continues. Again, i think the solution that will be closest to spot on is Sunday night..right after the Superbowl..the GFS comes out at 1030 and the Euro at 1am.

Next weekend storm still way on too.

 

Thanks for understanding brook...you getting home safe that night is cooler than me predicting 12 inches and we get 12.1...lol..follow?

Beware Wednesday morning rush bud...you may want to think about taking that one off. Lets see tomorrow night.

 

just got home guys and have models open and viewing as I type this...Monday storm has come further north AGAIN and the Canadian model shows 3 to as much as 8 for central NJ...3 for up north.

Let me view real quick and see whats up.

 

Here is the Canadian output for the MONDAY storm...I think its a bit high..but you get the drift of who is inline for the better snows:

 

CMAN! This one is for you bud!

 

Ok...will have a write up in a few minutes but here is the model run for GFS for Saturday...FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY STORM. Huge numbers...7 days out:



cut off precip graph Blues are generally 2-6...pinks are 8-13 yellows are 14-24 ranges etc.

Those numbers do not mean much this far out. What you have to take from this is that this is the first POTENTIAL REAL DEAL MILLER A storm of the year. This is a slow mover..it dumps snow from N.C to Maine.

This has the biggest POTENTIAL of the year.

 

Ok...quick review tells me that the Monday storm could bring anywhere from 6-12 inches for central jersey...4-8 inches from NYC east...3-6 for north jersey and 2 to 4 for Lower Hudson Valley.

Wednesday storm starts Tuesday night and is still a huge HUGE question mark. Whether areas get a huge ice storm or 10 inches of snow will be a mere 20 miles away. Im not going to even speculate right now but north of I80 has a better chance. The Lower Hudson Valley has the best chance.

NYC could get an ice storm..could get 4 to 8..or could start as snow for a few inches and pour rain.

There is no agreement and no use guessing. Again, as I have stated the last 72 hours, we can start either nailing it down or guessing with better info tomorrow night after the Superbowl.

Then the next weekend storm which is a true noreaster. Blizzard for some. The fly in the ointment of that storm is whether or not it makes it all the way up the coast or gets to VA and starts leaking east leaving the highest amounts down south and over eastern L.I.

I do not think that will be the case and will continue with this being the best chance of a MAJOR snow storm. One that could be double digits for 4 or 5 states...at least.

Tomorrow night..after the game...we will start nailing things down.

 

Ok CBG...thanks bud. Just wanted to make sure if we share information we share it correctly..lol. Like I said, that one map went viral and not from here Im sure...but it did go viral and actually was mentioned in some newspapers with article headlines like...Snowmaggedon a hoax? LOL.

Funny thing is that the viral snow map may in fact be accurate when all is said and done.

 

Know Im all over the place here with maps but this is for the Wednesday storm. Tuesday night Wednesday storm.

These numbers do not include icing. You can see the numbers are high again...this will be quite the week is all I can say right now..exhausted..lets digest all of this tomorrow.

 

Thanks for the reminder Marsh..forgot about you. Will do when I do them today..and please tell your facebook friends I said hello...lol.

 

Still not sure how north the storm gets tomorrow FJF. As you can see from the maps I posted...from the models, its amazing concerning tomorrows storm how much north it has come..and yet its such a narrow bullseye for big numbers.

Central Jersey continues to show through the roof numbers with some models projecting close to a foot for certain locations.

 

Here is something to think about for this weekends storm but it has to do with every storm we have had this year.

If you have noticed on every model map we have looked at..even the storms in December, the precip range generally goes West to East..a bit southwest to northeast but generally left to right.

Thats because every storm has been so progressive. No storm has moved slowly through the area. They have generally come from the midwest to south central U.S. and then to the northeast.

The reason thats so important is that as we begin to study maps for this weekend, you will se precip maps more south to north..or a true southwest to northeast. Meaning the storm will be coming from the deeper south and then due northeast.

There lies your Noreaster...winds from the Northeast...movement more northeast etc.

The reason this storm has the real potential for big numbers over many states.

Ok...again, tomorrows storm seems to have edged north and while the NWS for North Jersey still snows only 1 to 3...the models are putting out more like 3 to 6 except extreme NW Jersey. As you go south of I80..the numbers start to increase until you get to around Trenton..where the numbers are near 10 on many models.

Then we still have the mess of a storm for Tuesday night Wednesday that could bring a lot of snow for at least Lower Hudson Valley.

Now up to the north....Marshall land, this first storm brings nothing..and second storm seems to setup a fight around the Mass tpk. To the south of it, it brings an major ice situation with snow/sleet/freezing rain. To the north it stays mainly snow and cold be a decent amount. Im trying to stay away from amounts all week until tonight but generally speaking its an easy 6 plus storm for those north.

Because that line has been moving all over the place, your area in general will bounce around. Regardless, most of Mass will have a headline storm. Out towards the Cape, a transition to rain is most likely...but again...not until this first storm is modeled tonight will ALL areas begin to fall into place. The Cape could get rain...could get 8.

Lower Hudson Valley could get 12...could get 4 and heavy icing. etc.