interesting, the snowfall map in centimeters is very different than in inches (even after converting scales):
that band of yellow is showing up on EVERY model GG..nice find bud..so safe to say central NJ..down to philly..through L.I. wow...HAMMERED. Here is a great..GREAT radar to follow and you can see live when the heavier bands are heading your way. You can see NYC is just north by 10 mile from the heaviest bands..those bands in early afternoon will begin to pivot ever so slightly north..and where that pivot ends up is plus foot snows. Those 50 miles north..a couple inches. RADAR: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/radar/site/DIX.shtml?DIX
Boston and especially east of boston gets at least that. Areas east and the cape will get clobbered DP.
Storm center beginning to transfer energy to the coastal storm..that will be the primary storm from around 2pm on..and once that gets moving..expect the wind to really kick in by nightfall. Still watching the radar and the heavy green has been sitting over a line from philly...trenton..just south of New Brunswick..and just south of NYC. That will begin to expand to the north..and even a bit west. Expect the heavy snow to be from 2 to 7pm for north jersey and NYC....NYC will actually get going a bit earlier. They will have rates at close to 2 inches an hour for a few hours. North Jersey will get some inch and hour and perhaps a bit heavier. Now, Long Island will get hammered with 2 inch an hour snows for perhaps 4 or 5 hours.
heavy snow bands right on the doorstep of Manhattan..and about half hour from the rest of boroughs. Manhattan about to get hammered.
Yes..as the primary gets going...those heavy bands will start to expand out..and pivot north and east. Keep watching the heavy band there and watch it expand over the city.
GG..watch this link..is higher resolution..watch the band south of NYC coming on board as we speak: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/radar/site/DIX.shtml?DIX
I certainly agree that it is likely that there are other things involved than just man-made causes - that's why I referred to "substantial man-made causes". And I do understand that in individual situations (storms) there are idiosyncratic effects going on. I'm talking more about how often supposedly unusual things happen - 100-year-storms showing up every year or two, storms taking unusual paths and having unusual effects (that left turn Sandy made was because of an Arctic ridge of high pressure that was probably there in part because of melting of Arctic ice, the Atlantic was unusually warm then in part because of global warming, and sea level is a foot higher in New Jersey now than it was 100 years ago), and so on. But I was specifically referring not so much to the weather, but to the forecasts themselves. As you know, Jay, forecast models are based on partial differential equations for fluid movement, derived from equations coming from fundamental physical laws. As anyone who took calculus knows, derivatives (and therefore these equations) are smooth - small changes in the arguments (temperature, humidity, components of velocity, available moisture) lead to small changes in outcomes. That's why successive runs of models (especially short-range models) are not typically going to change dramatically, but what we're seeing these days a lot more is that forecasts change dramatically from one run to the next. There are two ways that that is going to happen: either these attributes are changing much more dramatically than they used to (indicative of climate change), or the combination of those attributes we're seeing is very different from what we used to see, meaning the models are extrapolating more than they used to (also indicative of climate change). It's one thing for the models to be wrong, but to oscillate crazily in their predictions says that the fundamental understanding of things has stopped working, and that is scary. I would also point out one thing about bad predictions of amounts. Your argument is that .5 inches of precipitation is same thing, whether it's .5 inches of rain or 5 inches of snow. That's true, of course, but I would point out a caveat. I'll use figures for Trenton to illustrate my point, since effects for NYC are tempered by the effects of the ocean. Obviously colder air holds less moisture; that's one reason why the summer is sunnier (65% of daylight hours are sunny in July, while only 50% are sunny in January), yet there is 85% more precipitation in July than in February. A model that misses by .5" of rain in July is off by a margin of 10% of the average monthly total precipitation for that month, but a model that misses by 5" of snow in February is off by a margin of almost 20% of the average monthly total precipitation for that month, so in that sense it's a bigger miss. More to the point, of course, is that the effects of 5 more inches of snow are more widespread than the effects of 1/2 inch more rain.
Jay I am stuck. I will leave around 4 PM. How will it look between Englewood Cliffs and Madison at around 4 PM snow wise?
Staff..thats too much for me to digest right now..lol. I will promise. I agree with some...but a few things I would debate.. especially your points about models and grabbing information...but ..and your precip breakdown for winter summer? dont make me do that today. Brook...4pm is a problem bud..looking at the radar right now the heaviest precip entering the city as we speak and will park over the city for several hours..going to be a tough ride home. Let me take a valium after reading Staffs post.
Well that was a pleasant drive home,,,nothing like a white knuckler to get the blood flowing ! NYC is a mess,,,,,roads are all white and if you do see black or think its blacktop guess again most times it was a layer of ice,,,,,,,FDR was fine ,,GWB was bad jersey is bad,,,,,,,,,,stacked some firewood near the house and anxiously await Jay and everyone else's updates,,,,,and I know Jay won't say it but I will-----------> mad props to you buddy, take another bow you called this days ago,,,,you said days ago this could happen while these clowns on tv and radio said zilch,,,,,,So in a nutshell if you ever threaten to leave this site again I will hunt you down ,,,,,lol,,,,,,,I love this stuff and the updates keep em coming! So weather guru,,,,,hit me and us with some serious now casting ,,,,how much is it phasing ,,,where are the heavy bands but more importantly what is CBG gonna wind up with ?
Well according to that radar,,,,unless I am reading it wrong,,,those darker blues are heavy snow and hitting NwNJ / lower hudson valley / me as I type......no ?
