Amazing..not much of a change for many. The winds will kick up a bit more so this will have a better feel like a real storm but not much has changed other than my confidence that people in the Hudson Valley are the big big winners here...or losers if you hate snow. Will keep checking during the day but NWS numbers are finally agreeable up top. Those in the Hudson Valley could be more like 8-12. NOW GG...mixing issues for NYC and very close to the west and everyone to the east. So it starts as snow..and at some point changes to sleet which I think will last a bit longer than what is predicted..perhaps at least a few hours...then turns to rain. BC..again, they are still saying changing to rain overnight but its a close call at 4am. Still, according to the experts, it happens. FJF: Hit the road early bud! Brook...you are in the 4 to 8 range...cman at least 4 to 6. CBG in the 6-10. DW ..its going to be a real tough drive back if you are leaving after 2pm bud. Real tough from Scranton I know Im forgetting some so just ask..and sorry.
Here is a great map. Check out where you live. Understand this is for snow accum..and doesnt take into account if it changes to rain. I have a few disagreements with it but still, good source to see the harder hit areas. Down south by CMAN i think is too light. LINK: http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_72HR.gif
Right now there is nothing huge on the models for a bit Brook..but heres the thing, when a big storm comes through its like the models struggle with future potentials. Things quiet down...and then very warm next weekend is possible. Then cold again.
6 to 10 works but can't help it Jay,,,,I'm greedy always want more snow :rofl: We will see what happens,,,if it forms where we all think, moves in the direction like we all think,,,,maybe it stalls like some of us ( me ) hope :up: Keep em coming Jay,,,,let us know more about start time and amounts if you have em pinned down more,,,,,,ps I like when this thread lites up lie a Xmas tree and that's about to appen :up:
Locals calling 4-6" here with mixing down on the Mason/Dixie Line (Md border). Fired up the Ariens and it's ready for duty. :up:
Well boys my work is done here..have a great strom! ENJOY. Yeah...like I would leave now. Ok...again, not much change here. Well howabout that. Winter storm warning after last night the NWS mentioned they did not think warning levels would be issued. Like I said last night, it was probably a conservative group. Yeah CMAN..fire it up. Listen, I have little doubt at some point you go over to ice..many will. But there will be (notice I start a lot of sentences with the word BUT which I know is a no no..I can hear my 6th grade English teacher yelling at me) but there will be many that go over to ice at some point..and I really believe everyone goes over to ice before it ends. Just that some might go over for only an hour. Want to see a real horrible forecast for our area? From the NWS: SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON- EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION- EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- 437 PM EST FRI DEC 13 2013 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND ICE...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY AND COASTAL SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM LATE EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...ALONG WITH UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...1/2 MILE OR LESS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ON SATURDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 30S LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES SATURDAY EVENING...AND THEN CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ICY ROADS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Notice the bolded..underlined Italic lines (lots of emphasis) 1/4 inch of ice on top of the snow..that is no joke folks and that amount of ice is forecasted for an area to big to describe. From Cman to me and brook to DW and FJF. lol...like everyone knows where that is..lower pa to north jersey to hudson valley all the way up to mass. Now some folks will get more ice than that. There will be an ice storm which the locals are not talking about because they think this rain/frozen line will be a fast mover. With these cold temps that will not be the case. Once it gets through NYC and points east of I95..it will begin to crawl northward...and will eventually catch the end of the storm. Thats why many will only get a brief period of icing at the end even far up north..but they will get it. Other than that...no real changes. I know CBG you put down 4-8 and bud..it could be higher so let see how it plays out. And I hear you...dont get me wrong..I love following all storms but I am always looking for the ones over 16". Thats where its starts for me. I want the blizzard of 96 again..and when that day comes, I will retire from this because I will not probably be alive the next time it happens....lol.
One more thing for those in the Hudson Valley. Again, not going to bore the hell out you so I will try to make this real short. You have 2 storms here. The first storm is the storm that gives CMAN much of his snow south of us. That storm will also give Hudson Valley and points due north their snow. Now the secondary forms..and the second storm robs energy from the first storm. So the major accum switches from interior to the coastal storm. Now the coast will be too warm for the snow..ok...this is even boring me. Bottom line is at some point areas north...the models are showing the border of NY State and Conn and Mass and about 20 miles on each side..will get robbed by the snow but that could be wrong...but it will happen. Hope it doesnt happen to those that want snow..but its going to happen north of us. There will be a drier slot of snow somewhere.
lol..just looked at the latest models..I dont know Hudson Valley..but some of you can get a foot of snow...at least.
Got Godzilla gassed up and ready to go! Laid down salt as well as a failsafe in case we get iced over here.
Great move cman...hit the blower and then salt bud..because when that switch over happens..its going to get icy bud. Hey..we talk about busts guys but just check this out. Forget the totals for your area..but just check out NYC and points North and West from there. See what Im talking about..every model has this. NYC with a changeover to rain but first getting 2-3..and then like 20 miles north and west getting close to a foot. Now..at some point..if that line moves a bit here and there...you can see how some would be shocked. LINK: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BbZsOUdCYAASxxS.png
np cbg..and guys the latest short term models are a few degrees warmer..just a few but I cant begin to tell for places like North Jersey..if these models are correct, you cut the numbers in half. Now, its tough to jump ship with models this close..it happens..but this cutoff line as I mentioned earlier is so close between those getting 10..and those getting 2..its just about 20 miles. Something that really needs to be watched. Up on Hudson Valley it means not much at all..but north jersey? Close call now but still sticking with it.
Half ? North jersey ? No no no Jay I am sorry that will not do,,,,,,,let its now letit snow let it snow :rofl:
lol..the only way that can happen is if you look out the window one minute and its snowing very hard...the all of a sudden you start hearing the dreaded ping ping ping of sleet. While sleet is fun..well to watch...it would mark the end of snow accum. I highly doubt it goes back to snow once that happens..and thats where the bust numbers come in. Again, cbg..while I believe everyone at some point goes over to sleet except way up north and west...I still think for the most part this will be a minimum 6 inches for everyone north of I80 and west of I95 buddy.
See you tomorrow guys..will probably not be on till after it starts unless I wake in the morning to see there is no storm..not happening!! Last minute models I just checked are still staying very very similar so all is good to go. For those that want snow..enjoy..for those that dont...pull the shades down...and for those that bust with snow totals...what can you do There will be some that will do the opposite and go higher then the number for their area. Stay safe.
