Hey FJF, I like to go back and reread things to make sure I covered everything and see that I missed this part...sorry. Just get up early and try to make it before the snow comes in..my guess now..and it could be off so check tomorrow night..would be to try to get home no later than 9 or 10. EDIT: Oh..and check out this map I posted for you...you are in a prime spot.
it's funny, all the schools canceled tuesday for the dusting. now everyone is down playing this one. what are we looking like for timing? i hope to be back in the hudson valley around 1:30 p.m. saturday. but i will adjust if it looks like i should be off the road earlier. edit just saw your post jay, looks like we are skipping breakfast,try to make it home ealier
Here is the write up from the pros...the National Weather Service HPC..and some of it is tough reading to the untrained eye but Im going to bold a few parts: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. COLD AIR DAMMING WILL KEEP COLD AIR EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO NORTH CAROLINA. DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION...AND COASTAL FRONT...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY MORNING. COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START FOR ALL SNOW. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW AS THE STORM REDEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. ALL MODELS ARE TRACKING THE LOW JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK...40/70. FLOW WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND NO UPPER CLOSED LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. PLENTY OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCORPORATED INTO THE SYSTEM. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AT THE START...SATURDAY INTO THE EVENING. AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO A TRANSITION TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST IS LIKELY AND FARTHER INLAND WILL BE A TRANSITION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...TAKING LONGER FOR THE TRANSITION INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VARY WITH THE MODELS AND LEANED TOWARD THE WPC AND RFC GUIDANCE. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LEAST ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY NEW YORK WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...RANGING FROM AROUND 2 INCHES TO 6 INCHES. PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING TRANSITION WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SNOW AND ICE TOTALS. STILL DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OF A 6 INCH SNOWFALL INLAND AND WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME...AND LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY EVENT AT THIS TIME. Ok...like any business that runs around the clock, there are shifts..and some shifts have different thinking than other shifts. This shift is very conservative and almost to the point of being dangerous if the storm were not still a few days away. The first bolded part they say most of the heaviest precip will occur in the beginning and middle of the storm..then they contradict themselves and say areas like the lower hudson valley will have mixing issues. While their fears of mixing issues for NYC, L.I and even most of North Jersey much later on are accurate...there is no model support..none..that states areas like the lower hudson valley will have anything but snow almost until the storm is close to over. They then go on to state 2 to 6 inches..ok..no big deal except the third bolded area states that because of the 2 to 6 inches...this will probably not be a storm to issue a winter storm watch for areas in the hudson valley or any parts of NJ...correct? How much do you want to bet that those areas have a winter storm warning tomorrow at some time? I would bet the house. Areas north of NJ into NY State will at least have the potential for more than 6 inches of snow. Lets see if that plays out that way tomorrow. Now if my area gets a winter storm warning..then they are completely wrong because Im a decent bit south of NY State. We shall see.
Yeah FJF..I would. Originally, the models showed the storm coming in slowly...starting out as light snow I think I wrote for 3 or 4 days. Now today it looks to come in with more a bang...so getting back to your area with anything with a A.M. after it would be ideal bud.
And this is from your local NWS in Hopewell Junction..they seem to think the snow should fly...but not issuing warnings yet: THIS ALL SAID...WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF A MODERATE SNOWFALL EVENT (4-8 INCHES) INCH AT THIS TIME WITH OF COURSE THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS CHANGE. IT LOOKS LIKE A GENERIC SNOWSTORM FOR MOST IF NOT OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ANY MINOR WIND ISSUES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. THERE IS VERY LITTLE IF ANY THREAT OF POWER OUTAGES SINCE WE ARE LOOKING AT MAINLY A DRY SNOW. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SLIPPERY ROADS. AGAIN...NO WINTER STORM WATCHES WERE ISSUED AT THIS TIM
thanks jay. TWC just upped to predicting a solid 3" you will be playing with house money the rest of the winter after nailing down that white christmas predicting a couple weeks ago. kudos sir
Man FJF...there is a big problem with that one...there will be 2 warm days coming up next weekend that could melt away some of this. I need a storm the week of Christmas...still believe we get one that week. Expect TWC to up yours another 2 or 3 by morning.
Everyday it seems i write something that says...I cant wait to see tomorrows models because I cant wait to see tomorrows models. This is getting so close to being even bigger. So close.
Jay You are now famous man. I told about you to my elder brother who is 10 years older than me. He doesn't know English. I told him how you warned us about Sandy so we could buy supplies from Home Depot before they were sold out. He prayed for you to Allah So in case Allah is the God, you are covered. Enjoy your spot in Heaven with virgins. Me? I am not that into religion but my brother is a Muslim pilgrim so you are good in any case. Enjoy heavan. PS: I am drunk since we fucked those Italian Juventus in the ass Wednesday morning. But my brother is truly praying for you for Sandy. You are golden. Enjoy heaven.
Didnt do what I wanted CBG...but then again...did bump the numbers up to where I really believe will at least happen. Extreme north jersey gets around 8. There is a band of around 6 to 9 that runs from north jersey into mass. The band is will off the coast..lets say around 20 miles west of I95. Now there is one possible problem for your area a bit north. Sometimes when energy is transferred from one storm inland to a storm along the coast, there is a dead space in between the transfer. Not that this area receives nothing..the precip just cuts off earlier...and its something that needs to be followed during the storm. So areas west of this get big snows from the primary storm..and areas east get big snows from the secondary storm. Its showing up on some models and not on other models. When it does show up its central hudson valley. Again, those areas could get clobbered too. The second concern of course if a track too close to the coast. Right now the rain/snow line is about 10 miles west of NYC. NYC and areas east still get front end snows but the changeover happens overnight. Now move that line just 10 or 20 miles more west and areas that eventually will be projected to get 6-9 inches of snow get 3 because once it changes to sleet...it aint coming back to snow. It either stays sleet or changes to rain. Those are a few flies in the ointment. Now, its getting closer so even though I have seen dramatic changes inside 48 hours...the models are pretty close. Again...Miller B...areas will bust. The areas that will bust are the 2 options I mentioned above..and a third option of the lowest part of the snow map and where the snow on the models starts building up. CMAN is in a spot that can get 4 to 6 easily..he is also about 20 miles north of areas that might not get much snow at all. See you guys tomorrow after the 930 and 1030 updates.
While Im deeply touched Brook...deeply...I was never a big virgin fan. I would prefer once I get up there for them to be hot as hell..and have a real wild side. If Im pushing it, I will of course take the virgins bud...lol...you are too funny my friend.
Local guys are a little alover the place with amounts,,,,,,,time will tell ,,,a little more than 24 hrs away,,,,,keep em coming Jay :up:
spot on again jay, TWC upped it to 5-9. looks like it starts slow 2-4 coming during the day then another 3-5 overnight. thanks for keeping me posted jay. i will give a live update when the flakes start flying
Jay I'm going to sacrifice an alpaca to almighty RA in your honor. I've got to find me a goddamn alpaca now.
I dont know what to say. Deeply touched SS. Oh wait..sacrifice..I thought I get the alpaco for a night. lol..ty bud. And the winter storm watch for our area: ...A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... CTZ009-010-NJZ004-006-104>108-NYZ071-131730- /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0004.131214T1100Z-131215T1100Z/ SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON- EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION- EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- 423 AM EST FRI DEC 13 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY AND COASTAL SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES SATURDAY EVENING... AND THEN MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ON SNOW COVERED AND ICY ROADS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Checking updates now.
NWS forecast for our area..correct me if Im wrong but that sounds like 5-11 inches for us: Saturday Snow, mainly after 10am. High near 23. East wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Saturday Night Snow before 1am, then sleet. Low around 22. East wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 35. Northwest wind 11 to 16 mph.
Here is a stupid reminder right off the bat for our snowblower fans..cman on top. This will very likely end as sleet for an hour or two. Towards the end of the storm, I remember i mentioned this in a storm last year and it helped. Around 9pm the latest tonight, make a run with the snowblower because many will end up with sleet on snow. Some you will know that the blower can be a bitch with that..get the fresh snow up.
