Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Right now DW, Scranton is in a prime spot for some really good snows. The start time has been moved up but not sure about that. Newest models say between 7/8 AM so that would be a problem for you bud.

I think, without alarming you..hate doing that, you need to really keep an eye on this. The good news is that the heavier precip, as of now..and Im going to keep repeating that, picks up late afternoon. So Iim guessing you get out there ok. Tell me more about the gameplan. Is the plan to comeback Saturday night? If thats the plan, I can tell you with a decent amount of confidence, thats a problem. Tell me your timing.

 

If you mean a foot FJF, RIGHT NOW,there is no model support for that. Now if they mean that if this and that come together, the answer is most definite, that could happen. I really appreciate you giving me that info FJF. It helps me to see what they are thinking.

This has many different potentials..so lets just spell out the most obvious.

1. The storm that starts all of this remains strong as it heads towards buffalo and the great lakes and the secondary that gets going is not a strong storm.
3-6 from westerm MD all the way north.

2. The secondary forms strong and close to the coast and gives PA/NY state but not NYC central and western MASS etc 6-12 and areas not mentioned and closer to the coast 3-6 with mixing issues after about 6 hours of s now.

3. Secondary forms a bit east where its positioned now and without boring the hell out of you Northern Jet meets up with southern jet..phasing and bombing off the coast of Delaware and you have a full blown snowstorm with everyone getting over 8..some areas much more than that..and perhaps mixing issues for NYC east.

Quite honestly, Iim not leaning in any direction right now but if you go purely by model support, I would go with number 2.

Can number 3 happen as the weather channel and accuweather have mentioned? No doubt about it. Unlike the first 2 storms this year, there are many great players involved. Getting a bomb of a snowstorm is a bit of threading the needle. Anyone that says they are positive right now is not forecasting but wishcasting.

REALLY looking forward to the EURO tonite because the GFS model that just came out started to go with option 3 but did not finish the job.

I will be up for the 1am Euro.

 

Hope I answered all the questions so far cbg!!...Will check out the EURO tonight at 1am bud.

 

Now the GFS model that came out about a half hour ago gives the Hudson Valley and areas north a ton of snow. here is the model run for snow. Yes, over a foot for HV.

I just think that if the numbers get to that point, its just a matter of time they leak south. GFS says number 3 option but with a * and the * is not for people south of the NY border. Still gives NW NJ a decent thump though.

Again, EURO is the key tonight. By tomorrow night, all the players will be in the USA and the models will really zero in.

EDIT: OPPS...LINK!: http://i.imgur.com/B01oj5c.png

 

Here is a great model to give you timing. Hit the animate button and at 60 hours from now the snow starts. Did the math

Starts at hour 60

Ends at hour 80. So if this is accurate, storm starts at around 1230 Saturday and ends at around 830 Sunday morning.

More importantly, the model gives by color how heavy the snow is falling. So the heavy snow starts at hour 66 and the heavy snow ends at hour 78. Now the grinch in that for north jersey central is there could be icing mixed in.

Bottom line is, if you go by this model the heavy snow falls for 12 hours. Guys and girls..thats very impressive. Now areas north, like CBG and FJF would get all snow and lots of it. I would bore the hell out of you with all things I notice but what sticks out right away is the storm slows down while it gathers strength off the south jersey coast..dropping a bunch of snow north and west of the center.

Tons of things to iron out but if the EURO starts to support this type of setup, things are getting very interesting.

LINK: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Hit the animate button to the left. Hit the stop button when the precip starts falling in your area..check what hour it is (above the ZOOM tab it says hour) Then instead of starting it up again, hit the + botton next to where it says "5 day loop" There are several plus buttons so hit that one.

Everytime you hit that button, the model advances one hour..so you can then jugde how long the storm is.

Now, is the model dead on? Probably not but you can get the idea of problems you might have getting heavy snow...mixing (pink colors) rain (green)

Liight blue=light snow
blue=moderate snow
dark blue=1 " an hour snow
very dark blue= 2+ inches an hour.

So enjoy!!
Still waiting on the euro. Any questions using that map..just ask.

If you want the first time you use it, just hit animate and let it run all the way through so you can see the whole storm progress..then just hit animate again to start over. The model runs over 100 hours out.

Oh..this is the CMC model..canadian model..solid model.

 

and the Euro comes in juiced up...develops south..snow for most throughout...pretty much an 6-12 event..and leaves a lot on the table...meaning for where it develops..and where the cold air is..all the ingredients..the numbers should have been higher. Models tend to get placement...temps...all that stuff adds up to where the players are..but then gets the amount of precip off. I think that might be the case..and I have to say, with all systems entering the US tomorrow morning, this could be a very very good storm.

Dont see the bomb yet..but it could happen.

See ya in the morning.

 

Thanks CBG..but as I have said many times..its the models and the time. A bit of experience too remembering what has failed and what has done well. I like to put that in there because in the back of my head, I always think there may be a jackass or two that think Im trying to come off as a genius or always right with this stuff.

As I have said, anyone can do it if you put in the work...lol.

Ok, heres the dealarino. The latest Euro has just come out and amazingly, there is a huge agreement with most of the models.

Long story short..and you know me..that will NOT happen, Storm comes in Saturday morning and the primary storm throws snow for almost everyone north of extreme south jersey. The snow, sometime in the afternoon, will pick up and get a heavier as evening approaches and the secondary storm forms near Delaware but not off the coast. Important later on.

The storm moves slowly from the eventually the coast of DE. to just east of tip of Long Island. The reason that is so important is that because it is so close to the coast and temps in the Atlantic are still not at true winter temps, areas close to NYC and east and south will turn to sleet/freeziing rain and the just rain.

Now, Im telling you, this rain/snow line is a huge question mark because a swing of 30 miles either way means the difference of all snow for NYC or a changeover for places even north of I80 in north jersey.

All the models seem to agree that ares in NW NJ and north of I80 and then west of around RT23 will probably stay mostly frozen until perhaps the very very end.

Snow amounts are pretty consitant too. From areas around CMAN that run from southern interior PA through western central NJ all of north jersey in the zone I mentioned above..through the Hudson Valley..Central and Western Conn. Central and Western Mass. will be in the area of 4-8. Higher amounts are the most western areas but the extreme western areas I mentioned are also on the cutoff border where nothing falls.

My gut feeling tells me that if..IF this does stay all snow, this will have little problem hitting the higher side of the scale..with certain areas getting close to a foot. Areas that look outside and start to turn to sleet..well, whatever number you are at is where you land.

There is a lot of cold air feeding this storm for most of the time. Ice will be a problem where the rain/frozen line sets up. While that line will move from southeast to northwest eventually it will hit a wall and where that happens, could be major icing...but not like last storm..or 2 storms ago. By tomorrow this time, there is so much agreement will be able to nail it down a bit more. Again..a Miller B storm and there will be a decent amount of busts. I think the busts will become more visible by tomorrow night.

Looking forward, it gets very cold all of next week and then..a warming trend comes aboard for a few days next weekend where temps get into the 50's for many. For snow lovers you would think thats a bad thing but it actually needs to happen when you have so much cold air like we have had and will have next week.

By the temps warming up, it allows the cold air up in Canada and Alaska to like...reload..true story...before heading back down here severral days before the week of Christmas and giving us a good snow storm on Christmas Eve...huh? Well some models are really pointing towards that. Wouldnt surprise me at all because I really do believe some kind of storm will hit the area between the 23rd and the 25th.

When this storm passes, thing will quiet down a bit for about a week..nice warmup next weekend..back to the cold and the storms start brewing up again. Ocean temps should be colder..and storms that come should be snow.

 

Ha BC...well right now your spot should..IF YOU GO BY MODELS..change over to rain by then.

One second..let me check NWS for Brooklyn/Bronx.

EDIT:

This from the NWS BC:

Saturday Snow, mainly after 10am. High near 34. Northeast wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Saturday Night Rain, mainly before 4am. Low around 30. Northeast wind 11 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Sunday A chance of rain, mainly before 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

So, if you go by that, you are fine. Now the models have trended colder..slightly..every run. Right now though, you are good to go but not in the heavy snow zone. You start out by snow but turn to rain by very early Sunday morning.

Now if you see me post that NYC is now in the snow zone, ask me again..but right now you should be ok. It sounds like Im trying to convince myself here. Lol...but the models do indeed push all of this cold air out in the city but it stops there. 10 miles to your west its mostly snow..so stay tune.

 

DW..really really close call. The arrival should be fine..but the departure? Really close call. That area is going to get a lot of snow..one second..let me pull Scranton to see if they give a timing.

EDIT:

From the NWS for Scranton:

Saturday Snow, mainly after 9am. High near 28. East wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Saturday Night Snow before 11pm, then snow and sleet. Low around 23. East wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Sunday Snow, mainly before 8am. High near 31. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Unfortunately, they do not give amounts..very vague. But I read the discussion real quickly and they claim .50 liquid during the day..that would usually be around 5 inches but its more like 7 because of the cold temps.

Bottom line is, you are cutting really close with the departure..and watching all the models..you leave at 2pm there..and you will be riding the heavier precip all the way back as thats around the time it picks up there..and then here 2 hours later.

Tough call and wish I could be more positive.

 

All I can say is this FJF. If they are saying that for you area? They should have a drug test done because you are in a prime location bud. 8-10 if you ask me.

 

Thanks Brook! Wow..thats a lot of dates..but I think we can pull that off.

 

Just saw the latest NAM and GFS runs this afternoon. Would expect by tomorrow morning many in NJ/PA/NY/MASS will get getting at least a winter storm watch by tomorrow morning.

Winter storm watches are issued for areas that will receiver either 6" of snow or bad icing.

if they think it less than that, they issue Winter Weather Advisories. Rule of thumb is when an event is within 12 to 24 hours of starting...watches are either turned to Winter Storm Warnings...or dropped to Winter Weather Advisories. If you have a Winter Storm Watch..and then are dropped to a Winter Weather Advisory as it gets closer, the feeling from the NWS is that you will not get as much as they originally thought.

EDIT: Some areas to our south have less requirements for a Winter Storm Warning..I believe MD is 5..could be wrong but think so.

 

Hey DW...The NWS for Scranton area issued a Haz weather outlook for Saturday/Saturday night. This will be replaced by a Winter Storm Warning some time tomorrow...but here is there write up:

YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-
CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-
SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-
SOUTHERN WAYNE-
132 PM EST THU DEC 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO ALL OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY.
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES.

 

Haz outlook for the following counties in NJ and NY and Conn.

NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-
SOUTHERN QUEENS-
430 PM EST THU DEC 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON
SATURDAY WILL EMERGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON SUNDAY. THE LOW COULD
BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME...AND POSSIBLE A GLAZE
OF ICE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TO INLAND SECTIONS.
THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED INLAND NORTHWEST OF NEW
YORK CITY.

EDIT: This particular part of the NWS does not cover areas on Sussex/Warren/Morris..but they have the same write up.

 

Here is a map from HPC/NWS and their probabilities of areas that will get greater than 6 inches. Now..they a VERY conservative so if you are in the 60% or higher range...its looking good.

Also, this is just for 6". Many areas that are in the higher percentages of course will receive more.

LINK: http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx263/ufasuperstorm/6inch_zpsc20ff968.png