Okay jay,,,just as I post ,,i watch ch 2 Vanessa murdarch says ,,,mix of snow and rain along the coast,,,snow north n west,,,,she says as u do we gotta keep an eye on this storm,,,,,hmmmmmmmmmm keep me coming jay :up:
Latest models keep snow still 50 miles of I95...but I was just looking at long range models and I know many have said this might be a below average winter...hmmm..something tells me this winter is going to be very above average starting in December.
Remember that absurd song..i think Im turning Japanese? Well the phrase of the day for CMAN is he is turning European...because the European model just put out a foot of snow for him. Right now, the American model keeps the storm mostly off shore..and the European model is right along the coast keeping heavy snow inland...CMAN. Now, the only way for us to get a real snow storm is if the models meet in the middle. If these models meet in the middle...Thanksgiving Eve ending early morning Thanksgiving day would have a big snow storm for many west of I95. Right now...the big snows run about 10 miles west into PA...east of that..you get a messy slush until you get east of I95 where its mostly rain. There is a stretch of 8-14" of snow that run just west of CMAN central PA thorugh nystate etc. Can the models merge? I have seen it happen many a time.
Ok then. Time to prep Big A for his maiden major storm. I'll make sure Wifey drives the Armada this week as she'll be inbound from Jersey Wednesday nite. Thanks for the heads up Jay. If this thing happens, I'll be sure to post pictures. Sadly, this pretty much shuts down any offshore activities until the spring. Good thing my freezer is full.
Excuse me professor Jay,,it's me here in the back of the classroom ,,,,CBG with my hand up , I have a question sir ? If the storm rides the coast or just a wee bit off the coast over the agua does that not mean snow for us here in NWNJ / inland ? That counterclockwise thing with the cold air stuff not to mention that phasing thing,,,,,just asking sir,,,thank you :rofl: Stay on top of it Jay
very damn proud of you cbg...very proud..you did your homework..so you get a very good answer. Yes and no...hows that? lol. If this were the middle of January, it would be a no brainer snow storm for all..but its still November so you need the storm to be well out over the ocean along with a strong high pressure to the north..to feed the cold air in. So even with not having both..no high pressure and the storm so close to the coast that the winds are from the east..not the north east..and our ocean temps are still very high. Now...some time for a change...just got home and checking models. The American model dumps a huge rainstorm on us and mixing by you..so its getting closer. Checking the Euro now. ONE THING I DID SEE...AND I HAVE BEEN CALLING FOR THIS FOR AWHILE...get your boots and blowers ready...because December will pop out a few very good snow storms. After this storm there are two more on its heels. The 4th..and the 11th.
something new popped up on the models earlier today but I didnt bite but might now..a 1...2 punch...a first storm on Tuesday night/ Wednesday..followed by a second storm Wednesday to Thursday morning? Weird..but its there. Latest shows a lot PA with an all out ice storm..snow more towards central pa. Mix NW NJ...Big snow storm central NY and Western MA..extreme western Conn. VT/ ME.
Really checking over the models...I just have to get into my head its November...too much going against this storm for this time of the year. With that said..there is soooo much going right..its just going to be a mainly rain event for many..heavy rain event which we could use. Of course...it could change...but its just on top of the coast as it comes north...and very consistent with that. So you never know...into PA..things could get really interesting. Now, here is one promise Im about 80 percent sure of...what does the mean? Promise but only eighty percent? Anyway...there are storms on the horizon...and this winter will be a doozy...so one week after this one the train gets a rolling. Will update after Jet game tomorrow to see if anything changes with this.
Day won and aust won team comp and for those interested in cricket .australia smashed england in the first test☝️
I love when jay talks in riddles ,,,,,,,promises,,,,,80 percent ,,,,yes and no,,,,,,phasing not phasing,,,,,,,,,probabilities,,,,,,,,,,,hmmmmmm this thread might be more interesting than the jet game come 2 pm Sunday,,,,,,
the models now show temps rising to the upper 50's for us during the storm..and mid 30's for central pa. What does that mean? I know you know cbg..it means the storm will over around philly..and we are to the east...warm...etc. Can you believe that? Temps will rise quickly. Starts off as a mix for a few hours. Now..this is still a huge storm. Rain amounts well over 2 inches..flooding rains. lol at the riiddles cbg. I realized after i typed it. 80% chance that there is a 100 percent chance of several snow storms before christmas. Put that in the bank..because they are coming!!
Just want to say thanks for all the great work. I've been trying to follow the storm as I'm traveling Wednesday morning, but you guys do a much better job than whatever I catch on TV and read online.
Thanks jay,,,,,,for all the info,,,,,,,,,,stay on top of this stuff as we all appreciate it :up: Some people like myself are going to deviate from original plans ,,,because travel in snow sucks but pouring rain ain't much better,,,,,,keep us posted buddy
gonna be 24 degrees here in sc tonight. Were also supposed to get a shit load of rain tues-wed. This on the heals of the NWS winter outlook calling for a mild,very dry winter for the SE
cman...every model that comes out keeps getting warmer and warmer...I can see temps in NYC now getting over 60 during the storm. Its going to be a real soaker and for you? I really believe it ends up being mostly rain. 100 miles more eastern track and its a huge difference. It just keeps moving more west with the center of the storm. You have to go to central western pa now for snows. For most, a drenching rain. We had the storm for a long time...the track was a mess. Timing is late Tuesday with drenching rain early morning Wednesday and wraps up by afternoon.
Their long range outlook is going to bust even for you...this is going to be a very active next 30-45 days.
I hope so,i would love a white Christmas here. We actually had one 2 or 3 years ago,it snowed Christmas night with 4 inch accumulation. Also,even if we get a 1/4 inch,i get to stay home because that causes a complete panic here lol
Jay Please tell us it will be freezing on Sunday when we host Dolphins. We need some cold weather and possibly snow to choke these Southern sea animals.
