Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

lol...when i saw the dreaming of a white thanksgiving..i even gave it a horrible sing along so dont feel bad..but very funny fjf.

I will say this..the models moved the 40% to 50%...give me a minute to look at this.

 

Lee Goldberg might be right...bill evans is on drugs..I mean how can he say that? That is such a flat out lie.

The latest GFS showed a tremendous phase..and had a huge snowstorm for ny state...western conn...western ma..nh,vt and Maine.

Us too...but about 50 miles west. Cman gets the snows..but the storm phases off the Jersey coast so he doesnt get the heavy stuff..and the truth? Thats good right now.

You never want to be in the bullseye with the models...6 days out. You want to be there 2 days out..lol. One second..still checking.

 

Lol CBG..I should have clarified...not young here...and that girl is my wife of 18 years..and i married late...I was a true lover of being single but my wife made a man out of me..instead of the little boy I was until my early 30's lol.

Heres the deal..my wife does love snow..and loves...I MEAN LOVES...when Im wrong. She reminds me of it. She will say things like "yeah..the guys at work say no snow because there is no orange ring around the moon the night before" real dumb stuff because she knows how easily I snap..lol.

Ok..enought about me.

Just checked the models..and Im waiting...no..Im dying for the Euro model at 1 am..so will wait up to see it.

As mentioned earlier, Bill Evans is on drugs because the GFS model showed not only a huge snow storm for the North East..but even though it still showed rain for us here...the temps went from upper 30's to low 40's..and now mid 30's during the storm..and thats awfully close to a full snow storm for north jersey.

NYC and East will have a tough go of this even if everything works out perfectly. But there is tremendous model agreement that a decent size storm will form in the Gulf of Mexico...ride up through Georgia and exit of the South Carolina coast. From there is the key. Does it travel right along the coast and maybe a bit inland? That would be rain for many.

Does it travel just off the coast? That would be snow for everyone 30-50 miles west of I95...with a mix bag for north jersey. Or does it travel around 50-100 miles off the coast and give everyone west of I95 a wet snow storm.

Again..this is going to go back and forth until at least Sunday...will post the Euro update in about a half hour.

 

Man CBG..that Bill Evans line is really getting me riled up..lol. Could it be all rain? No doubt..but to say it didnt phase on the GFS model and show a very deep storm...I mean...thats just lazy. Its his way of explaining why it would be rain..and thats just flat out lazy.

This storm can do everything right..everything..and still be rain if it tracks onland, or too close to the coast. It needs to be a bit further out to sea (not too far of course) to keep the winds from the north east..and not the east.

If the winds come from the east...its game over for many for snow with the ocean temps still in the upper 40's and 50's. Hope that makes sense.

REMEMBER..WHAT DIRECTION DOES A STORM ROTATE? COUNTER CLOCK WISE...WHY IS THAT IMPORTANT? IF THE STORM IS TO your east..and it rotates counter clock wise...it brings in winds from the north.

If the storm is to your west...counter clock wise..it brings winds in from the south.

I keep repeating that but if you get that drilled into your head...thats about 30% of figuring out weather for yourself!

 

and the Euro model comes out..and its even colder...even NYC gets a few inches of snow..and east of I95 over 6". AGAIN..way to early but guys and gals..and jonnny...we have something to track for the first time this year.

Odds of snow went up at least 10% on all locations on page before this...too tired and lazy to post right now.

EDIT: Long range models now show the next storm after this exactly a week from this one...around December 4th with almost the exact setup....but 1 more week into winter. Very cold in between will lead to colder ocean temps for this one...getting interesting early this year.

 

Then you pass the test CBG..congrats!

I will say this. My thinking all along has been rain for many. As the models have showed a colder solution...but not cold enough for many...I just wonder if they will continue to show an even colder solution as we get closer because this storm path is dead on perfect right now.

There will be changes...and I just wonder if the changes this time will only be temps. There will be a broad 7-14" inch range that will run from southwest to northeast and where that sets up is too early still.

Another thing is timing. The models pretty much all slowed the storm down about 6 hours so the storm would start Tuesday night and be at its worst Wednesday morning...and wrap up in the afternoon.

If this turns out to be a heavy wet snow storm for some...travel would be made difficult because of snow flying around and too many cars..not that the roads would be horrible.

Again, way to early to predict but right now we are watching for two things.

1. Does the track remain the same..which is a perfect winter storm track?

2. Most importantly do the models continue to show a slightly colder solution each run...because if that continues...then 80% of us would get a heavy snow storm.

One more thing to keep in mind...there is a major..I mean major cold front coming through over the weekend..this will really cool the ground..so I might be wrong..even with a wet snow the roads could be bad.

And CBG for fantasy football...very very very cold for many areas in the USA this weekend with very very windy conditions too on Sunday.

 

It could very well happen Jon..in fact..it could still go out to sea. The danger will following storms 5..6 days out is that whatever the models show today has less than a 30% chance of happening.

In fact with this setup, we might not see consensus until Monday night.

Cmans location is a interesting one..he is very west..so you figure easy snow..and I agree with that. Because the easy snow areas are on the western fringe of the storm, he could easily end up with nothing or flurries if the storm trends another 100 miles off the coast.

So..many questions.

The storm for December 4th timeframe is still VERY much on all the models also. So the first trend of the year is middle of the week storms. We shall see.

 

Brook...you have me cracking up here...what a great try!!.

A better response from them would have been "We have followed his predictions and quite honestly, he is an avid fan of the weather and pours his heart and soul into everything he does....but he is also around 50%..which is about where everyone else is..please get back to us if he can get that average up to 75%."

Brook!!..great try bud..and lol at Barry....jaywayne..people would be like HUH???


GD..If only I could just wait until a day or two before...I would look like a hero. The problem with that is I would have about 10 or 15 people on this site screaming how they saw Bill Evans predicting a snow storm 3 days before me...and I would be forced into retirement.

OK...as far as the storm goes...as soon as I finally hit enter to this post it will probably change..but its now 72 consistent hours of not showing snow for the NJ metro area..just on the border but not close enough that right now? I have to say the major snow storm will be around 100 miles inland from northern pa through NY State...extreme western Conn...Western Mass...Western Maine...VT.

The reason that is is two fold...the phase occurs off the coast of NJ and the storm explodes about 100 miles too far north. Cold enough air does not get pulled into the storm until the last 4 to 7 hours which means we will get some snow..but not enough.

CMAN could be to far south...but again...things will change. The problem is that I really believed the changes would happen sooner. Still think the setup is there.

And Im sure now that I posted this...the models will begin to finally come around to a snow storm for everyone west of I95. Lets see tonight at 1030 for the GFS model....and 100 am for the Euro..if the trend starts..or does not.

 

Im just busting them CBG...they are good guys and do a great job..lol..but I cant help it.

Frustrating to say the least but it is what it is.

You know...following this stuff for decades the one thing I have learned is..when everything makes sense but the models don't buy it..and they stay so consistent, you just never know...but the one thing I have learned or observed I should say, when there is so much model agreement for so long of a time something drastic usually changes just before the event.

I mean, the models have generally been very consistent with a decent size storm that moves up the coast just off land and brings rain to all the big cities and snow around 75 miles from the coast. Been like that give or take for 4 days now.

But there is plenty of cold air sitting out there just waiting to be pulled down by the right phase and a strong storm.....its just not happening.

Still think at some point something will click and it will go boom. If not? Then we saw this storm a week before it happened and just couldn't get snow out of it!! lol

Still keeping an eye out for December 4th period...now that is a whole different set up to say the least with much more in our favor.

Not giving up on this one at all....