Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Very possible J. The actual track is almost a true benchmark for a snowstorm for all...but the problem with that is the ocean temps...a bit warm for this time of the year.

Some might ask then how do you get a snow storm on halloween? The strength of the storm. The stronger the storm..it creates its own cold air pool. Right now, this storm is a decent pressure.

Now, if the models intensify this storm even more...that could change but totally agree with you right now sir.

I will say this, all the models now have the storm 6 to 7 days out which is amazing...and will probably change. They even have the track pretty much.

This is all about 50 miles swings in the track...50 mile more out to sea and we get a snow storm...50 miles more inland and you have to into PA to see it.

 

I would think you are in a good zone cman...UNLESS!!!!

UNLESS!!...This winter..like last winter..and the winter before..will it be 3 winters in a row? winters of unless.

Have to say...the models ALL have this storm still. Jil was posting how he thought it would be a rain event for the coast...I totally agree with him...UNLESS IT GOES OUT TO SEA.

The reason i put this out there is because several smaller models went that way today and I cant help thinking how bad the models did the last few years.

Lets see what they say tonight...still think something goes for the day before Thanksgiving....unless...

 

Unless a dramatic timing change..no. Looks like it will be over by Wednesday noon.

Latest models are agreeing on storm..but the rain cut off line is pretty well north and west of i95..basically to go into pa to get good snows.

Now..with that said...the models are really REALLY going to struggle with this particular setup. Not until the major players enter USA soil with they start to zero in on track and temps..and that will be around Sunday.

So...we are still in the ball game for a snow event..or a very cold rain event..but going by todays model..cold rain.

Very early still..starts around noon tuesday..ends no later than noon Wednesday.

 

latest models did a bit of flip flop...but actaully began to agree even more.

If you go by the last 48 hours of models..there will be a storm..its a question of who gets rain..who gets snow..the latest euro put out over 2 inches of RAIN for our areaa...translate that to snow and its a ton of snow.

So...we get closer to the event and will continue to keep an eye out.

Thanks DW and GD..will try to keep you updated...but still a tuesday ending wednesday deal.

 

lol CBG!...Good post.

Brook...I bow to you my friend...lol...very funny.

Hey...the National Weather Service has just hopped on to what we have been talking about for 3 days..they are playing it safe..rightfully so..with a chance of rain or snow.

Here it is:

Link:http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...2&site=all&smap=1&searchresult=Wayne, NJ, USA

Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 21.

Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 36.

Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.

Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44.

Tuesday Night A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday Night A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thanksgiving Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 35

They have the storm coming in a bit later and leaving a bit later...now if this does turn out to be snow, the travel day and night before would be a nightmare.

Here are the chances for rain compared to snow:

Northeast nj: 25% snow

Northwest nj: 35% snow

Lower NY State CBG: 40% snow

NYC and east: 15% snow

PA and west: 50% snow

Things could change...but right now, thats what Im thinking.

And if you really want to rattle the brain, here is the actual discussion from the NWS...I love reading this stuff:

MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK
OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR SOUTH AND POSSIBLY COMING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO US TO BRING SOME PRECIP OUR WAY...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT MORE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
TELECONNECTION PARAMETERS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT A MORE PROGRESSIVE
STORM SYSTEM WITH A LACK OF DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THE 12Z
ECMWF...WHICH MANAGES TO PHASE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGIES...DOES SO A LITTLE LATE IN THE GAME FOR A FAIRLY LONG
LASTING HIGH QPF EVENT THAT IT DEPICTS OVER HERE. WITH THIS
SAID...IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN VS THE
GFS. CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT IT AT THIS TIME. PREFERENCE IS GO
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE LINES OF A WPC/12Z GFS MEAN BLEND REGARDING THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF THE STORM. THIS WOULD MEAN LOW CHANCES OF MIXED
PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPE SIMPLE THIS FAR OUT...SO GENERALLY
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...BUT FAVORING RAIN FOR THE
CITY AND COASTAL SECTIONS...AND MORE OF A MIX WELL INLAND.

So what this is basically saying is that you have to have blocking north of us for a major snowstorm. It slows the storm down allowing it to strengthen...creating its own cold pool when the cold air available this time of the year is not the greatest. The blocking also more precip to fall and the storm to move slower. When they say progressive, that means a lack of phasing.

What they try slip in there quietly is each model spits out sometimes over 10 ensembles...different model runs. When they show a consensus....they go for it.

Each model has about a third that are still spitting out snow storm...there lies the confusion.

You guys all owe me money for that explanation...or perhaps I owe you money for making you read it.

 

Barry...my memory sucks...where are you located?

We could really use the rain here badly...but snow melts too huH? Selfish but cant help it.

 

Going out tonite with my favorite girl but will post around 1am after seeing the latest model runs.