Hey Brook!! 200 pages of weather...who would have thought that was possible..congrats buddy! Ok, from what the long range models are showing..here is what we have as of right now. A cold front has passed through the area early this morning. A small disturbance...cold front with a disturbance riding along the front...will hit us over the weekend. As it stands right now, this will be a possible starter as light snow for those north of us...changing to rain. Areas well north..and im talking way up north ny state, VT..Maine...could end up getting a decent amount of snow. 5 to 10 for some. Then things quiet down before another cold front passes through the Tuesday before Thanksgiving. While this is happening...a few models have a major storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico...the key to many big noreasters. The problem with the forecast is some models have the storm riding the Appalachians which puts many on the warm side of the storm. A few models have the storm riding up the coast putting us on the west side...bringing us snow. The snow or precip would start very early Wednesday and last through at least the morning of Thanksgiving. Remember the lesson from last year. Storms rotate counter clock wise. Being on the east side of a storm brings warm air from the south and east. Being on the west side of the storm brings winds and cold air from the north and east...noreaster. It would be a huge guess right now but this has the chance to be a very big storm. It could also be a rainmaker. My guess is that the answers will come by Friday of this week as far as will there actually be a very large storm. Getting the exact track down might not happen until 3 or 4 days before so that would be Sunday. Now once this POSSIBLE storm passes, the models are also showing another storm Sunday after Thanksgiving. Cold air will not be a problem I think. So in a nutshell: small disturbance this weekend. Possible storm day before Thanksgiving ending on Thanksgiving. Possible storm 3 days later on Sunday after Thanksgiving. Will try to really keep an eye on the model trends but one problem is that the EURO model...the God of models...is being outdone so far this summer and fall by the American Model...the GFS model. And here ladies and gentleman is a site I live on to study all of the models that might burst your brain the first time you look at it...lol.....enjoy!! LINK: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ Place your mouse over the MAPS tab to see some of the stuff that gets me info.
And since we are on page 200...just wanted to send out a thanks which I do once a year to Sundayjack. A great poster...great guy...who i miss like crazy being around here so little. A while back...every time a storm would be coming, I would start a thread about a new storm. Jack decided to make a thread about weather and stuff and many of us have had a decent time with this stuff. When a storm REALLY DOES COME..its amazing how many smart posters we have on this site that know their stuff and do a better job than I do. A few weeks ago, I went back for the first time to read what I wrote about Sandy and what was amazing was the incredible contributions from beginning till end by so many great posters on this site. I ended up with a 75 foot pine tree coming through my home that knocked out power for 5 days and when I came back...you guys took over and did a job I could never dream of...warning people etc. So here is to another 200 pages of hopefully safe...fun weather. The last post on the page below is where we start talking about Sandy...wild ride it was. LINK:http://forums.theganggreen.com/showthread.php?t=62620&page=89
Love the updates :up: like em even more when this snow stuff happens ,,,,,,keep em coming jay,,,,,,,,,can't wait to hear more,,,I enjoy probabilities and phasing and what not :rofl:
I read that, one of them his grandmother. He is still teaming with Adam Scott in the big tournament that starts up soon. I think this weekend.
Ha..cbg. Right now, the current track of the thanksgiving day storm is a bit inland meaning warm for us..but again..the track means nothing without the storm..and the storm is still there. A few more days to nail this down!
quick update on todays models. Last year...well..the past 5 years at least, the European model has been the model of accuracy and put to shame the American model..the GFS. This year, for whatever reason, the Euro model has done poorly since the beginning of summer. The reason for the long winded explanation is that as of a few minutes ago, the GFS model is showing a pretty major snow storm for the mid atlantic and northeast on Thanksgiving. The Euro model shows a much smaller storm. I think the big difference is the timing. The Euro model brings the storm in Tuesday and Wednesday. The American model brings the storm in Wednesday evening ending Thanksgiving night. Without boring the hell out of you, the quick smaller storm has the model not phasing 2 jets. The American model blows the storm up in a phase in the gulf of Mexico and brings it up the coast 24 hours later. So who is right? Right now for this winter, the score is GFS 1 Euro 0. Remember a few pages back i mentioned the possible storm the Euro had and the GFS did not have it. The storm didnt happen. If the GFS is correct, those traveling the day before Thanksgiving would be ok until early evening. Thanksgiving would be a very cool day being with family and friends and being locked in the house IF...IF...IF the GFS is right. Sooooo...does the Euro model come around to the GFS or visa versa. One model will begin to agree with the other model around Friday or Saturday. Then, after this...the models are showing a possible storm around the 3rd of December...and the 7th of December.
Cool. Leaves are all down and we are ready for snow. A snow covered Thanksgivng would be lovely. Thanks for the update Jay.
I saw the quote by his mother and was like this guy is going to go out and play the rounds of his life
Hey..still a long shot but great to see it on the models now for several days. I will say this, the cold front coming through this weekend? Its middle of winter stuff. Highs on Monday and Tuesday get a bit over freezing and night time temps get into the teens for many. This is a true arctic blast. The cold air sitting in the Yukon right now is starting out minus 40 as we speak. Doesnt modify much until it enters the USA. Some northern states might see below zero temps over the weekend. Its going to get very very cold for many.
barry..do you have a link about his family? I looked quickly and couldnt find anything. This is an amazing story. I saw it real quick on the news tonight.
http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/18/sport/jason-day-typhoon-haiyan-golf/ This one from Australia http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/spo...er-typhoon-haiyan-tragedy-20131120-2xuze.html
Barry...first off thanks for that link...tough reading but incredible. All should check that out. Second...all the models have the storm but move it up 24 hours. Starts late Tuesday and ends Wednesday. Track..track..track. RIght now, North Jersey is the on the border of rain snow. Will give more details tonight.
