Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

lol...yeah...we are just the only ones hanging out in this thread lately..lol...might get a inch or two today with the way the radar is filling in.

 

lol..thanks type...again...I do a lot of searching. ALOT. And Im a model buff. But ty anyway.

The Monday Tuesday storm for those in the Poconos and as you go north but away from the coast FOR NOW is looking like a pretty major snow storm. I really think that some models who have a warm bias are doing there thing again. This is a really tough time of the year for the models because they are in the mood for spring..but spring is still far away (calendar close but not temp wise)

What the frig does all of that mean? Brad...SE Conn is going to be a tough call but if you by by a blend of the models....starts off as snow...perhaps anywhere from 2-5 before a transition to sleet/freezing rain..and then heavy rain....gusty winds. 30-50.

NYC and close by metro 1-2 before a transition to rain...but my gut tells me a quick burst of snow and then sleet for a couple hours...then heavy rain.

North Jersey...same as Brad. CBG? Going to be very interesting for you...very. Sorry bud...i know you do not want this one but if tonites Euro trends even colder..you could easily get over 7 and then a bit of an ice storm.

Lets hope the models trend a bit more north and warmer with the Euro in about a half hour. Will post what I see.

Bottom line is the same as I mentioned 3 days ago..someone in the western Mass or North West Conn area will get a foot. This is a very powerful storm.

 

euro model was a bit warmer so thats good news...still front end snow. Still areas well north and west of I 95 from the PA/NY border north..some are getting a lot of snow

And the gfs and the euro just put out a huge snow storm for EVERYBODY on around the 23rd.

Interpret that as a huge storm for now...the storm will probably happen...lets see if they keep snow in future runs.

 

Ty CBG...lol.

Man..parts of VT and NH and ME. are going to get over a foot..and some near 2 feet of snow out of this storm.

Again..rain snow lines suck big time...very very hard to gauge especially in March. Where does it set up. Does it setup just north of the pa/ny border? Does central and northern pa get a dumping before the ice? Northern NJ...especially north west NJ?

Very very tough call because all of the models trended a degree or 3 colder with the storm..and now its getting to the point where there will be a pretty significant ice storm for someone and Central NY state is going to get hammered.

The coastal areas or those within 30 miles of the coast seem to be safe with a much briefer period of snow before a changeover and those further away getting a nice dose of snow before the changeover but will need tonite to narrow that down a bit.

CBG..you are on the fringe of a major snow storm turning to sleet. My initial guess is a moderate snow and then prolonged sleet and freezing rain.

Almost everyone turns to rain south of central ny state and mass by Tuesday morning but thats pretty vague. 1am or 10 am? Will try to narrow down tonite.

 

Not much of a change..it looks like the line that will produce all frozen precip...snow, sleet, freezing rain..runs through Orange and Rockland counties. Its going to be a nowcast type of thing to see where that line sets up but the EURO has been very very consistant with this line.

Precip starts Monday afternoon and starts out as snow for pretty much everyone before the sleet line moves north starting with southeren PA and working its way up from southern NJ on north...moves quickly until you get to about I80 and then the line starts to slow down...but will continue to move north. So areas south of I80 turn over before 9pm..areas north is the question mark and although there will be a changeover, will it be around midnight or early Tuesday 9am.

Thats the big question and its guessing game now.

Now areas north..central ny state on north and west of Central conn and Mass will get a huge snowstorm out of this.

Then we turn to a week from this storm where all the models are showing the same exact thing except more cold air to work with..soooooo.....

 

Yeah..tough spot for you Brad but I think you are in a location that gets snow to sleet during the night Monday...guessing around 3-6 before the changeover..but eventually you should go to rain.

AGAIN...AND THIS IS A BIG AGAIN...models are very very consistant with a big storm but all over the place with temps. 2-4 degrees could mean a 100 miles swing as far as big snows.

Still think it will be west of you though...but you will get some snow.

 

yeah....front end snow is looking like a major burst to start off now on the short term models Murell my friend...sorry.

In fact, the latest short term models I just checked out even give NYC a quick heavy burst of snow along with north jersey right around rush hour evening on Monday.

If the timing works out crappy...and Im really leaning that way...it looks like many will have a rush hour pain in the ass tomorrow between 4 and 7 pm. Now the temps are marginal so perhaps the main highways survive well..but its all about intensity...if it comes down hard enough even at 33 to 36 degrees...it could be a real crappy rush hour home for many.

 

One thing I have noticed on almost everry model is that this thing comes in hard fast. Not your gradual increase in intensity..when it starts..within a half hour its really coming down. If thats the case...evening rush hour will suck.

 

here is a great link for future precip types during storm. Hit the animate button and if you want...hit the arrow to slow it down..then place your mouse (just place it for obs...dont click it) over your area because it moves a bit quick. You can see your area the entire storm stay as snow..blue or dark blue...or switch to pink, which is sleet, red...which is freezing rain..or green which is rain.

The darker your shade..the heavier the precip type. Notice the dark blues and where they are and thats heavy snow etc.

LINK:http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

This is one models precip type but you get the idea of how it will play out. It will also show you how difficult it is to see where that lines sets up because its constatantly moving northeast..but areas to the west of the movement will get a heavy snow storm. Many will get a real big thumping of front end snow before the change over to sleet..and then the big question...does it change to rain for your area. Even people getting over 8 inches of snow will get a turnover..but it will probably be later in the storm.

 

And lastly for this evening...the NWS for north jersey. A joke. Its impossible to get less than an inch monday afternoon and monday night even with a switch over.

Again, this will come in fast..and while north jersey might not get 6 inches..they are not getting less than an inch.

From the NWS current:

Monday A chance of snow before 3pm, then snow and sleet likely. Increasing clouds, with a high near 33. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Monday Night Snow before 10pm, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet between 10pm and 1am, then rain after 1am. Low around 31. East wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.2 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Tuesday A chance of light rain, mainly between 9am and 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Northeast wind 6 to 11 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Snow fall rates on untreated areas and non highway roads will give many in north jersey over 3 at least by Monday evening.