Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

I hear Lonnie Quinn is still going with 5-9 for NYC. God bless him..and Im not being sarcastic. He is sticking with his prediction no matter what and if it happens...that would be a coup. Now I heard that 3rd party.

I mean..anything can still happens when a storm is south of you..but if this were a presidential election with a dem against a rep...and the dem needed 4 electoral votes to win and California and NY were still not in...I would think he might win.

It aint over for the big snows...but its going to have to change a lot in the next 4 hours with the coast.

Back end snow is a different story...some will be surprised with what they get from that.

 

Thanks CBG...appreciate that.

And I hate to say there is still one more on the table...but lets get past this first. I really dont want anymore but the 11th and 12th is low confidence but the 18th looks really weird too.

 

Great cman. The real killer was we knew the cold air would be a problem..but as I mentioned what was expected was the heavy snow to come down hard..which brings the cold air down..did that in VA..but never really got kickin hard for you..at least not long enough..Im guessing as soon as it lightened up..it turned to rain.

 

This takes a few seconds to load but its mother nature at its best. I mean..wow...you cant say it wasnt a huge storm..check it out off the coast of MD.

LINK:http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/reg/index.php?type=usa-wv-48

 

Another great loop link. Here you see the first part of the storm that hits CMAN..and then it starts to fall apart...and rebuilds off the coast..great picture of a transfer of power from one storm to another
LINK:http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/nexrad.php?type=AKQ-N0Q-1-200

 

Good move on the stabil. Seems like some precip is breaking through around the Island and certain parts of the city. Certain parts of Eastern NJ. The next 2 to 4 hours will tell the tale of how far the first batch gets through.

Checking some stuff now.

 

Here is the local radar..starting to fill in new jersey but having a rough time getting into NY state.

I would think north jersey EAST of 287 if you have not started to get some lighter stuff..you should very very soon.

Anything that comes down will be extremely exaggerated because of the winds..because they are howling here.

OOOOOPPPPPSSSS...EDIT..EDIT..EDIT...BETTER LINK http://www.wunderground.com/radar/r...ford,+NJ&showstorms=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0

Just check out the precip to the east really trying to come west into our area..does it make it...like the little train that could...or couldnt.

Just keep this puppy open...it refreshes every 10 minutes or so...and its honest....only stuff that hits the ground. Problem is what is rain or snow..let me see if that link has that.

 

Here is what Im talking about. If you add everything up until Friday..you get 4-8..see how deceiving that is? 1 here..1 there..1-3 here...1-2 there...and you get an average of 6. Cant take credit for being right about that if it happens.

Tonight Rain and snow likely before midnight, then snow. Low around 32. Breezy, with a north wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Thursday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Breezy, with a north wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Thursday Night Snow. Low around 30. North wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Friday Snow before noon, then a chance of rain and snow. High near 40. North wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

 

Ok...at least its really start to fill in now. So north jersey will get snow tonite..in fact everyone will probably get snow. Wonder when the shore turns over because they could get a nice little hit if it does.

 

To understand how absurd..how absurd..how bad some of the American models have become..and how embarrassing it is to have this model..the NAM as the, at one time, number 1 short range model...this is what the NAM just put out for the remainder of the storm..not yesterday..but a half hour ago:



So what used to happen is you would take the high model...this model and the low model and take the mean and give you a decent idea of the totals.

Now the reason the NAM put these numbers out is because there is a part 2 to this storm that every model shows tomorrow..and its increasingly obvious that we will probably get more snow tomorrow evening and night then tonight...but this is how unfun and bizarre it has become.

This is no lie..no bullshit. This is what has happened to the models the past 2 years. Now if we just went by models we would need no analysis but with this kind of crap..where do you go...lol.

 

On a positive note, the breakdown has begun and some of the heavier stuff is starting tom make it into NJ. Seems like L.I. is getting heavier stuff too.

LINK:http://www.wunderground.com/radar/r...ford,+NJ&showstorms=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0

You can see around Sandy Hook to NYC a line of heavier green starting to breakdown and go west..will this reach me, brook, CBG? Will keep watching spread out.

 

Have to tell you....tomorrow night will be very very interesting with the trough that will setup from north jersey to mass. Again, its called a norlun trough and I have learned a lot about it the past 48 hours. Usually dumps 2-4....3-5...but the most trusted models show it dumping much more than that.

CBG...you might be very surprised as will Murrell..sorry bud. I know you are done. Even brook and me.

Friday morning will be a tough commute if...IF it sets up south enough for us.