Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Excellent point cman..and no..no idea other than blocking patterns etc...what you have with this storm is what is called a miller B.

Noreasters are classified as Miller A's and B's

Without boring you...A miller A storm forms in the south and turns up the coast as a single storm...it usually rides the coast and goes over what the geeks call the benchmark...40/70 mark out over the ocean (longitude/latitude) 40 north/70 west on map..when storms hit that mark or close to it..that is a signal for a major noreaster up and down the coast.

Bottom line is its a single storm.

A miller B..which this storm is..is a storm that starts out in the south and heads up to the ohio valley/great lakes region...as it gets to about Kentucky or around...a secondary low forms usually off the coast from NC to Jersey. Those storms like this one are very tricky because where they actually form IS HUGE. A bit more east over the ocean and the rain snow line follows suit...closer to the coast.

This storm is supposed to track just east of i 95...which is the reason for rain in NJ (which will start as snow) and snow in PA.

Now...Im still really up in the air with this storm because some models have trended with this storm basically riding the coast...a colder solution for lets say northwester NJ...more snow.

Boring...but thats it in a nutshell. Give me a cut and dry MILLER A storm anytime..much easier forecast.

Now there are a few models that do not transfer the storm to the coast but ride this as a single low from Kentucky to i 95..and then right up I95.

Very possible. Just that the lastet models have trended East with this storm and the further East it trends...the more snow as you get closer to the coast.

Most forecasts have the heavy snow/mix sleet rain line north of 287..north of rt80 then West of the Hudson Valley.

Not really buying that right now..but tonite around 1am..after I do my Santa thing...I will check to see if tonites models go further east..if they do..watch out.

Again..a little snow tonite to put everyone in the mood...potential Wednesday...big storm Saturday...big storm New Years day.

MERRY CHRISTMAS GUYS!! AND GIRLS!!! AND jonnnnY!!!!

 

Thanks CBG..AND TO ALL A VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS!!

Yeah..little snow tonite Jon...not much..but a quick update on the next 7 days.

The storm for Wednesday is a tough call..yes there will be a very large storm but who gets what. Right now it looks like NYC metro is on the rain side with a chance to start off as snow..but the more east you go the less likely.

West of 287 and north of 80..at that intersection..not north of 80 closer to the city..can get some snow..but will probably change over to sleet/rain.

NJ/PA border could start out as snow but end up with a pretty big ice storm...again..the border part north of 80.

Central/northern PA on west...running up to central ny state...western New England..away form the coast gets the money...over a foot.

Now..all eyes turn to this weekend where there is a real shot for most if not all at a major snow storm. MAJOR snow storm..easily over a foot for many. Thats the storm will be following the next couple days but this could be a huge storm with blizzard conditions for many.

Then another big storm the middle of next week...and then a few more over the next 3 weeks. Very busy time.

 

Hah...yes...a ton of vampire...Im not big on sleep.

CBG...this is a weird storm to call but heres what I will say...mix mix mix. Its such a close call that here in Wayne? We might get a front thump of about 2-4 inches before a changeover..but does it change quickly through the cycle of...snow...sleet...freezing rain...rain? Or does it get stuck for awhile in between? Somewhere in OUR parts of NNJ it will get stuck and you will end up with a pretty bad ice storm.

The more west you go...the more snow.

Cman will probably see a quick changeover to ice/ then rain because this is not a west to east changeover but more a south to north. Although his area is further west..its much more south.

Now...there are some in the industry that believe this storm will dump 6-12 inches in parts of NW Jersey...and quite honestly..after looking at the models just now...I can see that happening too.

This is your typical NOW CAST..meaning...when the storm kicks in..you watch the rain/snow/sleet/freezing rain line..and just follow its movement and where it gets stuck.

Thats what I will be doing all afternoon and evening tomorrow. Will be online all evening!

 

Now that storm on the models is a possible near miss out to sea..ON SOME MODELS..so we might get away with it..but the earlier Saturday the better..still believe something will happen along the coast.

NOW FOR THE BAD NEWS. Just checked the latest models with THIS storm and man oh man...Im not sure the local weather guys have this one right. I really believe they are downplaying the strength of the precip..which means they are getting the temps wrong. Very strong storms tend to make their own cold air.

In a nutshell? I believe by Wednesday night..when the storm starts to wind down..yeah..it might be rain...but before then many..MANY will get a huge dump of front end snow in North Jersey lower NY state and Northern Eastern PA.

Would not surprise me if people who are being told 2-4 end up with 6-12 inches of snow. That would be Western Passaic County...Warren County...Western Morris..or perhaps those counties in their entirety. And if wrong about that..it will be because those areas change over to sleet and stay there for hours..which would keep amounts lower..but a real ice mess. Just not buying these areas changing over to rain after a couple of hours.

Will be on tomorrow to see if that plays out.

 

Hey cbg...I will say this. Many areas north of rt 80..or even west of i95..the forecasters are going to have egg on their face. This storm is going to fool many and leave some that thought 1-4 inches of front end snow with closer than a foot of snow. I just listened to WCBS weather and the woman said possibly 2-4 inches in north jersey...nope..that aint happening. Places in North Jersey will get close to a foot.

Again..its more of a north south thing.

 

I really believe you will be at around 6-8 AT LEAST before the sleet changeover...and honestly...I think on the high side. This quick changeover is not going to happen.

Will have more updates around 5 or before...but this is going to bust real high on media predictions.

 

In fact..checking radar...the real heavy snow is only about an hour away..and that push could dump around 5 inches in less than 3 hours.

 

Yeah Drew..brooklyn would be tough to get mostly snow...i think the sleet will stick around for a couple hours before you get freezing rain and then quickly rain. Tough spot.