35 pick if he falls. He could fall that far given the injury. Teams hate taking a guy who is rehabbing in the 1st round. The top half of the round is full of teams terrified of a bust as it is and the bottom half is full of teams gearing for another run who want the guy they take to mean something this year as well as in the future. I think Wilson, Burks and Olave are the guys who are going to go in the top 16. Any of them could go in the top 10 but probably only one goes there.
I bet the Chiefs pounce if he's available when they pick. They don't need him to contribute this year and who better to get the most out of him than Reid.
Consensus is that Wilson and London are the top 2 WRs, you don't see London being picked before Olave and Burks?
London fits into the Shanahan offense but Olave is a better all around receiver and Burks is better downfield. London is probably the 5th best talent at WR in this draft after Williams, Olave, Wilson and Burks.
I feel like that's your opinion though, I'm just saying the consensus among analysts is that London is 1 or 2 in this draft. I think there's very little chance of Olave and Burks being taken before him. Here's a great chart @GasedAndConfused put together (worth noting this was before Burks' bad combine, so he's probably lower than this now): and there's this: The consensus among analysts would have to be off by quite a bit for Olave and Burks to be taken before London.
I don't think London is as fast as people think he is. He hasn't run a 40 for anybody. I'm guessing when he does it will be in the Treylon Burks range only Treylon Burks clearly plays faster than that if you look at his tape. He runs away from people after the catch. Watch Alabama and Mizzou tape and you see a big receiver that nobody can cover making major yards after the catch. London is more like Keyshawn, making catches in traffic and protecting the ball well but not really a breakaway threat.
I don't think anyone really thinks London is fast tbh, he's pretty quick though (was 1st or 2nd in missed tackles forced among all WRs) and may be able to beat DBs with route running+quickness+size. He's by far the tallest of the top WRs in this draft and is a good jumper and adept at high pointing balls. The difference between Burks and London's 40 times is that everyone expected Burks to be really fast and he wasn't. Nobody thinks London is fast, if he runs anything under a 4.6 it likely won't have an impact on his stock. I just keep going back to production with London. He was averaging 11 catches per game last season - I don't see how anyone could do that if they struggled to get open or beat DBs.
I don't think London is going to have trouble getting open. I think he's just kind of flat value, with too much possession and not enough game breaker in his style. Burks runs away from people down the sidelines. He'll make a contested catch and then get yards after the catch and that's what Zach Wilson needs almost to a T.
I've seen this narrative a few times now and just want to point out that I don't quite understand it. Joe Burrow sat behind Cardale Jones, JT Barrett, and Dwayne Haskins (RIP) at Ohio State for 3 years before transferring to LSU. Sometimes people just need a change of scenery for things to click. Jameson had the 5th most receiving yards (1572) in the nation this year and was tied for 2nd in TD's with 15. That's a better season than Wilson or Olave have ever had. I'd have no issues with the Jets taking him at 10, assuming they've done their homework and confirm all these reports that he's "ahead of schedule", "could be back by Week 1", etc.
The real question on these lists is who is going to come out of nowhere to be an All-Pro? This happens with regularity at WR. One of the reasons is that WR is such a tough position the first season, one-on-one on an island with a seasoned pro opposite most downs. The guys who are ready to face that matchup prosper and often they are the 2nd and 3rd round guys that everybody dismissed as not being perfect prospects. However they were ready to go.
The fact is that we fans don't possess enough information to predict this. Much of what entails "success" are the intangibles a player possesses, and these are rarely able to be seen by fans, and frankly, are even overlooked by some professionals. A different position of course, but Mahomes is a perfect example of this. Yes, his arm talent was other worldly, and even casual fans could see that, but most who dismissed him a potential great QB just looked at the system he played in and the competition he faced and stopped there in judging him a late first rounder at best. What they overlooked was how he played, with creativity and always seeming to find ways to make plays. They also completely discounted that his father was a successful professional baseball player which provided Patrick with a role model on how to be a professional, what it takes, as well as the genes he inherited. In all the scouting reports I read about him - and I read many - I almost never heard that mentioned. And that's why I came to the conclusion I did about Wilson, because I saw many of those same intangibles and also a great arm and athleticism. His father wasn't a pro athlete but he did play Div. I football at Utah. The bottom line is that people who simply look at stats are often going to miss the mark. I confess I've relied on them because I didn't feel invested enough in a player or position to study all the film and do all the background, but even that doesn't give you the info that a GM has, and they still miss. But then brings into play the CS and system that a team uses, and whether the players taken actually fit. I think many times when you see a player who should've succeeded by all measures, but didn't, many fail because of this factor - not all, but many. And the window to succeed is so short in the NFL, that if a player struggles in his first 2-3 years he permanently labeled a "bust" and never really seems to be able to overcome that, especially QBs. We may witnessing this "labeling" with Mims, as well as Becton (and some would say Wilson too).
The QB analogy doesn't add up because at QB nobody other than the starter even gets playing time AKA the chance to prove how good they are. There are consistently 3-4 WR's who get serious playing time, and the best ones generally make it clear they're the best ones. Williams was on the same exact team as Wilson at the same exact age and Wilson blew him out of the water. That's not to say Williams hasn't improved by more since then, that's possible, but the fact is that Wilson was a lot better a mere 2 years ago. I think watching tape of each guy shows why that was - Wilson is a much more natural catcher and runs a way higher variety of routes well. Wilson catches with his hands all the time, Williams catches with his body often. Wilson does damage on the outside, deep, and in the short and intermediate middle of the field, Williams does damage almost exclusively deep.
Wilson is the best receiver in this class. If he's there at 10 the Jets have to run the card to the podium.
Sure, it's a different situation, as is every transfer, but the point still remains that Burrow like Williams did much better after a change of scenery. Williams was a lot better than Wilson this year, it doesn't matter to me what happened at OSU in terms of why he didn't see the field. He went to Bama and was arguably the best WR in CFB this year. I disagree with your assessment of Williams as I think he makes plays at every level but is by far the best deep threat in this class. Quite frankly, I think you can make a strong argument for a few of the WR's at 10 but I'll be hoping it's Williams.
This is not an apples and apples example though. Burrow sat because he was undervalued by a coaching staff that didn't prefer a more traditional passer for that scheme, at that time. Under Ryan Day as HC, I think he would have been perfect for his offense that he runs now. The QB position only has room for one starter as well. WR can have 3 to 4 on the field at a time. Jameson still struggled to get on the field because he just wasn't as good, especially for what that offense Is. He was buried on the depth chart for a reason. I absolutely think he would be a mistake with our first two picks. Also, as far as stats. You do realize that Jameson Williams played In four more games, yeah? So statistically, it would've been comparable. I'm too lazy to average the projection though.
This seems to indicate my analogy was more spot on than you or @REVISion would like to admit. You claim Burrow didn’t start because he was undervalued and if Day had been in place or they ran a different system, he might’ve thrived/been named the starter. Considering Williams put up the stats he did this year is it not conceivable that Ohio State also undervalued him in the same fashion as they did Burrow? I would find it very hard to believe that a guy who puts up 1500+ yards and 15 TD’s in the SEC would be THAT bad only 1 year prior. Also, I understand that the QB position and the WR position are different. The only reason I mentioned Burrow is for the very reason you indicated in your response. Clearly the Ohio State staff didn’t properly value Burrow while he was there. That’s why I see parallels in Burrow’s and Williams’ situations. The good news is that in a little over a week all of this speculation will be finished and we can just root for the guys we draft to succeed.
Williams is definitely in the mix for pick #10 as he’s the most explosive offensive talent in this draft. The Jets almost picked Ruggs over Becton... They went hard after Hill... They want that deep threat that softens defenses and will allow an elite route runner like Moore and even Berrios free reign across the middle. Along with solid TE play, it could be a huge upgrade to this offense + helpful to Wilson. You need to support him and have him playing well asap! In addition, Thibodeaux is looking more and more like a lock at pick#4. JMO. I think we could see the Jets package 2nd round picks to move up to round 1 to take a guy like Zion Johnson, who offers incredible versatility (guard, center or tackle if need be).
