Based on my handicapping system which looks at PF & PA as opposed to W-L records, only the Rams and Saints had easier schedules than the Chiefs as of two weeks ago.
We might have been slight favorites had we beaten the Bears soundly. As is, I'd say Pick 'em to 2 point underdogs. Remember, Cincy was only a 2.5 favorite last year against a totally unproven Jets team that backed into the playoffs in every sense of the word.
and that was after the jets wailed the piss out of them in the last week. they were still underdogs the following week.
It's too early to say where we're going to play. jacksonville still has a chance to win the division, and so do the ravens. we could end up with with the 5th seed if we win and pittsburgh loses... going to indy or jacksonville. indy and KC could also flip flop the 3rd and 4th seeds (since indy won the head to head) if indy wins and KC loses. it'll be an interesting week.
It may not be impressive but KC will kick our ass for sure if we play like idiots as we did against the Bears. We have no business looking down our noses at the Chiefs. They can certainly beat us.
KC is way too good of a team to look past them. they have a great running game, a legitimate number 1 receiver and a solid defense. I can't wait for the Thomas Jones vs through Jets stories to begin.
The Line The Sagarin Ratings do a very good job at predicting the Vegas spread. There's usually only one or two games a week which differ from his projection by more than 2-3 points, and often times those have injury issues at play (Rodgers not playing for instance). You can find em by googling "Sagarin NFL ratings" - his ratings are used in the BCS computers as well. Anyways, he has us projected to be a pickem at KC. He thinks we're about 3 points better than KC on a neutral field, and home field is worth about 3 points, give or take. Given how the teams have looked of late, the Chiefs might end up being a 1 point favorite, but I'll guess right now that the line will be pick-em.
I put home field advantage as slightly less than 3 points, but that's where the "give or take" comes into play. I used the Sagarin Ratings to make my picks one time. I was frustrated in 2005 against the spread making picks based on hunches and bias and what not. I believe it was Week 14 or 15 in 2005 when I opted to use the Sagarin Ratings to make my picks. I went 4-11-1 or 3-12-1 (my worst record of the season) and that was it. I went back to my old moron system the following week and had my best week of that season.
I'm not saying the Sagarin Ratings are good at beating the spread - I'm saying they're good at predicting what the spread is likely to be within a few points. If the Sagarin line is pickem for this game, then it's extremely unlikely Vegas will put the spread at something more significant than Chiefs -3. That's all.
Yeah, I wouldn't know that. That's what I was trying to point out. I have had no use for the Sagarin Ratings after that awful week in late 2005.
They do have a divisional game against a tough opponent on the road. Colts win and Chiefs lose, the Jets play Indy in round one. Rex always gets figured out by Manning. He's 0-5 in games Manning has played the entire game. Its no different than the Jets having Norv Turner's number.
What day/time will the game be? Assuming we do play at Kansas City, anyone know what the likely scenario will be -- they usually put the "bigger" marquee games in prime time, so maybe we'd be the Saturday afternoon game? (Like last season, in Cincy)
Chiefs O-Line is actually good, and our D-Line has been sorely bad. We can't even tackle a guy with a line defender. Jamaal Charles will rickroll right over us.
