You say good teams win close and bad-average teams lose close games. What were the Jets last year? A bad-average team that won close games. If you consider teams bad/good by wins and losses and then say bad teams lose close games, isn't it kind of circular? They are a bad team so they lose close games and because they lose close games they are a bad team. Well if you are trying to predict based off of last year, then yes, last year has a bearing on this year as points differential is a better indicator than wins/losses. You say last year has no bearing, but aren't you using last year? You are saying the Jets have bottom 5 QB, based on last year. You said the Jets have an average coach who seems over his head, based on last year. You are using strength of schedule which is based on, last year. So I mean I get your point, you want to say the Jets are going to have a bad year. But no need to contradict yourself doing it.
I get where you're coming from, but I have to disagree. Rex is a top-4 coach IMO. The 2012 Jets would have been a 2 win team with a normal coach, and in 2013 we would have been the 3 or 4 win team everyone expected with one of the worst offenses in the league. Rex Ryan might be the best defensive mind on this planet. He's at least in the conversation. The 2013 Jets would do worse than 8-8 in this year's schedule. But the team has improved in all 3 phases of the game, and I think that will show itself in the regular season.
Well yes, when you use that logic you have to agree. You are looking back and saying good teams win close games. We consider those teams good because they won those games. The thing is, as the article states, losing or winning a majority of close games is not really sustainable year to year. There's an expected kickback BUT that doesn't guarantee anything. Here's the thing, if Mark was so bad and Geno is so bad how did Rex have a winning record with Mark and Geno at QB? He's not a perfect coach, I wouldn't say "elite" either, but he's above average if you believe those QBs are that bad. I couldn't have showed you six wins last year let alone 8. Maybe the NFC North comes strong, but I thought that about the NFC South last year. Things happen. If nobody improve on the Jets and the other 31 teams improve, I can't see 6 wins. But that usually isn't the case. I think 6 to 8 wins is a reasonable expectation for the Jets. I think it's realistic to think they picked up at least 2 impact players within the draft and FA and think that their backup QB situation is tremendously better than they have had in a long time. I think all that combined, but a drop in luck regarding close games, 6 to 8 is reasonable. Maybe they go under, maybe they go over, but Rex somehow scrapped 6 wins in 2012 without the top WR or CB for most of the year so that's why I have 6 wins as my bottom.
6 wins would be a major letdown and I would go back on the fire Rex Ryan bandwagon. I do not not see the schedule as difficult because I never see a schedule as difficult in the off-season. Nobody will know how difficult it will be until the season occurs. Based on the personnel, 9 or less wins would be disappointing.
It's just the fact that we lost by 40 that can skew the numbers. If I I wouldn't go as high as top 4 but Rex is top 10 easy. BB, The Harbaughs, Carol, Sean Peyton, Mccarthy and Coughlin are the only coaches that I think are clearly better then Rex. Lovie? Him and Rex are the exact same coach. Great D, Poor Offense, put up some decent records but can't get over the top (yet, for both). Tomlin just rode the coat tails of which Cowher left him and now that all of those guys are gone, he is struggling big time. Right now I feel very comfortable in saying that Rex is the 8th to 10th best coach in the NFL. Atleast 3 of his seasons his teams have overachieved (1st,2nd,5th) and in his 2 "bad" years combined he went 14-18, which is better then a ton of coaches that end up getting fired ever go. The icing on the cake to me though is that he is the ONLY coach in the last 5 years that has found some success with jack squat at QB. That to me says everything. If Rex had a passing game ranked 15th for each of the last 5 years, then he is most likely a Super Bowl winning coach and all of these "is he bad or good" threads don't exist. There is a good reason why the team underwent a GM change and a total roster overhaul, and yet the HC stuck around. You just don't find coaches like Rex every day.
6 would definitely be a major let down. Maybe I'm trying too hard to look at it from a non Jets point of view. The team seems to have too many question marks right now to pencil them in as a winning team. I do think they improved from last year, but I have them in the lower range of 6-8 wins until we see them play some football.
That's probably as good an explanation as any for the point differential, and perhaps how it allowed nonetheless for more wins than the points diff. would otherwise have suggested. Of course it does not provide an answer as to what to expect from the Offense this coming season. It also unfortunately suggests that while the turnovers may have exacerbated the differential, merely cutting down on turnovers does not necessarily mean the O scores more. For example the one stat about Smith that really concerned me over the last four games was his ypa actually went down over those games, suggesting a conservative approach to the passing game that led to a drop in that production metric.
I would add Andy Reid as a better HC. And Jeff Fisher. Kelly it's probably too early to say, although he did get the Eagles going as the season went on. The issue with Rex and the Qb's is not all one way. I think he bears some responsibility for how long they stayed with Sanchez, with such poor results. And so far he has yet to redeem himself with Smith. In fact it is clear that with Marty the OC, Rex has less to do with the O than ever, which is probalby as it should be. But that does not speak well to the quality of his standing as an HC.
Im a big fan of Kelly so perhaps I'm biased but I think he's a better coach than Rex. I don't know why John Fox doesn't get much respect -hes a good coach. McCoy in SD was good and he will be a top coach in the future. I also think Arians is a really good coach going forward and I am surprised it took him so long to get a job. Rex is firmly planted in the middle of all the HCs. An average coach: -Great at coaching D, terrible at O = average overall... -good at motivation, bad with player evaluation/development = average overall. -.500 record = average overall -inconsistent with preparation, depending on the team/week -= average overall.
Good catch mentioning Arians. I can't explain why I did not mention him, other than that he also does not yet have much of track record as the HC. But yes, based on results so far both Kelly and Arians would have to be rated higher if those results hold up. As for Rex, sometimes I like him, sometimes not so much, but I guess despite my own ups and downs, he probably is right there in the middle.
Where you rank Rex is dependent on: a) Who you primarily place the draft/FA decisions on, Tanny or Rex/ Idzik or Rex/ Woody b) How you rate our talent on offense and defense and special teams Average is probably the pulse of this forum with the ultimate detractors being the loudest voices in my opinion.
I don't think Rex is as bad as people some people say. There are very few Head coaches in this league that are adept on both sides of the ball. In your list above I wouldn't put both Harbaugh's ahead of Rex, John yes, Jim no. I don't think McCarthy is ahead of him either, the DB Defense has been awful dispute having a lot of talent and the offense is largely a product of their QB, the run game for the most part has been terrible under his watch. That said, I'd add Reid to the list of clearly better and Coughlin and Fox to the list as better but marginally better. Being able to know yourself and your limits is more important than being an expert on both sides of the ball. When you know your limits you surround yourself with capable people where you're weakest. In Rex's case he needs a strong OC and a strong QB coach. Until now he hasn't had that, he was given Shotty to deal with, it wasn't his guy and there are numerous posts here on what everyone thought of him. He was also put in a position of drafting a franchise QB in a very poor QB draft rather than looking to bring in an experienced guy. I don't fault Rex for their pick of Mark (again its not just Rex that picked him, Tanny, Bradway etc. all had a hand in this and more so them because its their job to assess whether a rookie QB can become better then an available vet) as much as I do Tanny for not recognizing it wasn't a talented QB draft pool and instead signing a vet to start. What's important for a HC is motivating and getting the team ready to play, making sure the coaches are on top of things and have their squad focused. The increase in number and magnitude of blow out losses occurred when the run game went south and they were forced to rely more on Sanchez and the receiving corp. Controlling the clock is critical for a team without a talented QB and a weak receiving corp. Is Rex to blame for allowing the receiving corp to deteriorate like it did without adequate replacements and for trading valuable picks to select Shonn Greene when it was clear he's a complimentary back not a franchise RB and no one packages picks for a RB any longer in the NFL, then not bringing in anyone to support him after LT retired? They're lucky that Powell was decent otherwise it could have been way worse. Tanny was on the hook for Greene and Sanchez, he packaged picks to select them. Rather than admit his mistakes and bring in talent he went out and signed Tebow! I'm sure Rex was for it when told what they can do with Tebow t make their offense dynamic but I highly doubt Rex was leading the charge. We'd all like the know the truth behind that fiasco, some day we will. Now the team has a GM in place that is doing the right thing, an OC in place that is trusted and skilled. The next few years are a better gauge of how good a coach Rex is. An average coach would have gone 4-12 last year, for Rex to finish 8-8 was a great coaching job and that's why he's still here imho. He's a good HC he just needed the proper GM and support around him.
One of the big things I held against Rex was hiring Sparano. WTF?? Now he has Marty, which is great. Average it out? Average.
I think Sparano kicking Rex's ass the season prior had something to do with it....plus favors getting called in maybe? But yeah, a perplexing choice. Sparano was supposed to co-coordinated with that other dude but whatever.
Rex is a better coach than people give him credit for. He took a good team to two decent championships games and took a bad team to a 8-8 record. The problem is he doesn't have the momentum he did when he first got here. The players love him but he has to start from scratch. Everything has to go right the next few years. I don't know if he can do it. Doesn't matter because Woody is in love with him.
What are your thoughts about how the Jets players on this roster can fit into the Big Nickel set and what formations do you think that personnel grouping can shift to when offensive motions happen?
Seriously? Lack of momentum is the problem? Momentum isn't what makes a HC good or not. It's something that can make bad or mediocre HC look better than he is. Unless they're just incompetent, every "players coach" type HC always enjoys a lift or a momentum high when he replaces a strict disciplinarian. Rex enjoyed that his first two seasons here and rode that to those Championship games. Similarly, strict disciplinarians usually do well for the first few years following a loosey-goosey "players coach." The true test of a HC is what he does in following seasons. We've seen what Rex has produced in the following three seasons. IMO Rex is a worse coach than people give him credit for. He rode the momentum of being a "players coach for two years" and then when that was over, he's had nothing. In spite of being a so-called defensive genius, he has come up with nothing new in at least two, maybe 3 years, and he's been unable to turn average and below average players into a very good unit. That is the hallmark of a very to great coordinator or HC. IMO Rex is lucky to still have a job as a HC, particularly after the way he ran his yap, acted like a buffoon and the circus-type atmosphere he basically caused around the team. Most HCs lose their jobs if they lose the team once. Rex has done it twice. He talks a good game, but is below average in producing a good game. The Jets have have one or more unit show up flat or unprepared to play more than with any other HC they've had not named Kotite. Rex wasn't helped with the first GM, OC and QB Coach with which he was saddled, but he compounded the mess by keeping that OC, then hiring quite possibly the only man in the NFL who could have done a worse job as OC than the one who had just "quit".
You're right, you shouldn't have bothered. I tried to get you to actually talk football and it's obvious that you know nothing about that subject.
