I didn't use Mahomes in the "of the 3." I was referencing Kizer, Trubisky, and Watson. Trubisky has a heck of an arm. However, he doesn't use it properly. Nearly every throw the kid is not stepping into. But it is amazing to see him zip it, and hit some of the out patterns without stepping into it. If he can fix that his arm will be in good shape in that department. Maybe it is what feels comfortable and works for him. However, seconds are even more crucial in the NFL. He won't be able to get away with not stepping into his throws. That's is my biggest knack on Trubisky (other than experience). It was pretty clear from the get go that he has the back foot problem.
Not sure if you guys ever check out the NFL_Draft subbreddit, but they just posted detailed passing charts for all of the QBs: https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/5ps4u4/detailed_passing_charts_of_the_2016_quarterback/ Kizer surprisingly the best under pressure. Brad Kaaya; awful under pressure:
No, I'm not from NY. I grew up in NC, but loved Namath's white shoes, long hair, and rebellious manner. I was 12 when he was drafted, so it hit me at the right time. I eventually lived in NYC for 16 years from 1986-2002, but of course, by then Namath was long gone. I've barely had time to keep track of college players who will be in this draft. I haven't seen Darnold play. He's the QB from USC, but I've seen quite a few posters here raving about him, so at some point I will watch video on him and catch up with him and other QBs who may be in the draft next year. For now, however, I'm trying to find time to watch video on key prospects for this year.
O alright I see... Yea I agree. Trubisky has been said by some that he has a weak arm but from the film I've watched he has a solid arm. He does tend to under throw guys on the deep ball but I think that might be more mechanics then pure arm strength.
So, I am not a fan of any of these guys in the first. Kizer has the highest ceiling at QB in this draft. He throws such a good ball, definitely has an NFL caliber arm. The problem with him is he doesn't go through progressions, that's why he got into so much trouble in college, if that first read wasn't available, things got bad, quickly. Not a good sign. Mentally he isn't there and that's a big red flag for the NFL. Watson is the smartest QB in this draft, he actually does go through his progressions but I don't like his arm. I don't like his throwing motion and his accuracy isn't the greatest. He doesn't throw a very good ball down field. Trubisky is your prototypical QB. Good size, above average arm, good accuracy. He isn't very good at reading defenses, he doesn't get off his first read nearly as much as you would like, he isn't very experienced, and his technique is even worse than Hacks was in college. How this guy was so accurate with the football actually blows my mind. So, if we take any of these guys at 6 I will probably cry a little inside. I will always hope for the best but I wouldn't touch these guys. If I had to pick one, I would chose Kizer just because he has such a good arm and he has everything you would want in a franchise QB except for the knowledge side of it. If he can be taught to properly read a defense and go through his progressions, he would be a stud. I doubt he can but we will see.
Maybe in relation to making his reads. However, he is not smart with the football. 30 INTs in his last 30 games (17 INTs in his last 15). That is unheard of.
I feel like Kizer does go through his progressions, but his decision making is very questionable. However, I am really impressed with his statistics against pressure. Anytime I saw Kizer on TV, I wasn't very impressed in terms of his decision making, but he does a lot of things you can't teach a QB. If the Jets didn't draft Hack, and we had a good QB coach, I would be very interested in Kizer. I just don't like Watson's deep ball accuracy, it leaves A LOT to be desired. It's the same reason I wasn't all that interested in Mariota. Mariota is no good down the field.
First, thanks for those charts! Very interesting. Of course since they all played different teams its hard to compare apples to apples, but still, it's helpful. And yet somehow Watson finds a way to win, especially in the clutch. Ever hear of BIlly Kilmer or Joe Kapp or Jim McMahon? None had great arms, but they DID win. Watson is way better than any of them, arm-wise. You can't teach the intangibles that winners like Watson possess - either you have it or you don't. Watson has it. But frankly I haven't seen enough of him, and maybe you're right - his physical traits just won't be enough as a pro, but from what I have read, many people think he has the physical tools. The other players you mention I agree shouldn't be 1st round picks, but probably will be. For the Jets though, if they can't get who they believe to be their FQB, it would be a waste of a high pick to draft another "shot in the dark". And if they don't take Watson, I don't see them drafting any QB this time, and they'll go with Petty/Hack, and a cheap vet, OR, they'll plunge big and try and sign or trade for their FQB, which I believe would be a big mistake because they'll overpay, and there's no guarantee he'll be the ONE.
Yeah you have to take into consideration the system they played in and everything, but the charts are very interesting. Great point on Watson btw. Even the greatest, Joe Montana didn't have the strongest arm. Watson does find a way to win despite the nitpicking on my part as well as other people who have watched him play. Watson does have IT, he doesn't shy away from the lime light and seems to be very coachable, so he could very well improve on a lot of the things we discussed. Watson is the only QB I would take at 6. Sometimes the mental can overcome the physical.
I appreciate your open-mindedness, something we all have to have because who really knows how any of this will turn our. One thing we all share is a passionate desire to see the Jets FINALLY turn things around.
As the playoffs went on, I started to think more and more than we need to take a quarterback since there are few ways to win in the NFL without an elite signal caller. The problem with this franchise is that we need to somewhat patient with any of these guys rather than giving up after a year and a half. If we draft Watson, we need an imaginative offensive coordinator that will use his legs in a smart and calculated way early on in his career. Design plays that move him around while he still has the wheels as a young pup and let him work through his possible deficiencies by allowing him to gain confidence in his abilities making easy throws and reads. If we have a coordinator that's going to line up and throw the football without that imaginative mind behind calling players then we might as well not even bother. Think RG3 and Kaepernick early on, although I see him as having a much better football mind than they both had. Watson is the proven winner and has the intangibles that I don't necessarily see out of all of these prospects. As far as Kizer is concerned I just can't see using a top 10 pick on a guy that was 4-8 in his previous season (with unimpressive wins at that) and 14-11 overall in two years starting. We need an infusion of winning and someone who demands perfection out of his teammates. Watson has that IT factor IMO, and is a very cerebral football player. The only other players I'm interested at 6 is Hooker and Derek Barnett (Terrell Suggs in the pros). Outside of those three, I'm trying like hell to move down.
One of them will be worth the 6th pick the other three probably won't. Most of the draft pundits that I respect are going: 1. Kizer 2. Trubisky 3. Watson 4. Mahomes I would probably go: 1. Mahomes 2. Kizer 3. Watson 4. Trubisky Trubisky is the one guy I don't like as he reminds me a lot of Jake Locker.
Matt Leinart, Vince Young, and Johnny Manziel were all "winners" too in college. Watson was a tremendous College QB, but it's a totally different game on the next level.
And they were all stamped with question marks after their interview process, except maybe Leinart. I can't imagine teams not questioning Manziel & VY's commitment after talking to them. I don't see Watson as having any issue wowing teams in the interview process. It's a totally different game that is transforming to fit the running quarterback or at least one that is a bit mobile. It's playing right into what Watson's good at. But he needs to be fitted in the right offense like Kaepernick was and then he can continue to develop his pocket passing when he loses his legs. I originally saw Watson as a boom or bust prospect. But the more I watched him, I can't see him at the minimum being a decent pro signal caller. He's a playmaker. He obviously needs to cut back on the turnovers, but I can see him doing that if he's coached up correctly. He's also ready to play now. We can stash Hackenberg and let him jerk off on the bench til he's appropriately ready. I don't see him being anywhere near ready for the start of next season.
In order to get out of the AFC, Jets will absolutely need a QB, but I don't think he has to be elite or at least not at the elite level yet. Gailey would've been a great fit for Watson. I see Watson as a gambler and for the most part it's paid off, but at the NFL I just don't know especially down the field. He ran a 1 read system and well I think everyone here knows I am not a fan of QBs from a 1 read system. However, he's got the IQ and the IT factor and to me that goes a long way. Hooker is #1 on my board in terms of players that could be available OTC. 1- Hooker 2- Watson 3- Foster 4- Barnett 5- Adams EDIT - Kizer, I wouldn't take him in the first 3 rounds btw
He ran a one read system yet still made his way through the progressions. I think the one read system contributed to some of those turnovers as they're not really designed to be run with the intentions of getting to the second and third reads. I just don't see him failing. He's a first one in, last one out sort of competitor and I think that goes a long way in the NFL. Your reference to Gailey is partly why I hope we hire internally. I like the system a lot and I think it fits Watson's strengths. I like Hooker, but I like Barnett even more. Barnett seems like as much of a can't miss prospect as there is in the draft. He's been productive since his freshmen year and has the size to be a great edge rusher. I just hope we don't look at a possible subpar 40 time and shy away from him, because his pass rush arsenal has looked to be so far advanced of anyone else in the class other than Garrett. I thought Maccagnan was someone who heavily looked past combine results, but his selection of Devin Smith makes me think otherwise. I've been preaching the Ravens style of drafting for a couple years now. Get productive players in college that may not have the combine numbers. There's a reason they've been a successful NFL franchise for the better part of fifteen years. Speed on the field is far more important than speed at the combine especially on the defensive side of the ball.
Barnett is a really good player, I've seen some of his tape on draftbreakdown and he uses his hands very well. I think draft is deep at edge rusher class. I wouldn't mind using Sheldon as a trade bait to trade back into the first and grab an edge rusher. However Barnett, is always in consideration. Devin Smith was pretty solid in college, let's not forget that. He got Cardale Jones drafted after all. I think the jury on Devin Smith is unknown right now, but it don't look very good. He wasn't a good 2nd round selection.
But all of the teams that made it into the Championship games had elite QBs. Simply to make it to the playoffs - and then get bounced - only takes a slightly above average QB, as long as he has a very good supporting cast. Add Hooker, or Foster. or Barnett, or Adams, and by themselves the Jets won't make it to the AFC Championship game...maybe the playoffs, but that's about it until we find that FQB. And you know I agree with Jonathan_Vilma that Watson has all the intangibles that would make him a FQB, despite the flaws noted.
Big Ben wasn't elite when he went to the SB. Ben had a great defense, and you can argue he doesn't get ANY rings without that defense. Neither was Eli Manning the first time around. The quest for a franchise QB doesn't live or die with this draft. Gotta build a good team, find the QB too while that QB doesn't hamper the cap completely like Wilson does now or Luck.
