http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/p...on-percentage-gives-truer-version-of-accuracy Standardized completion percentage gives truer version of accuracy Sharon Katz, ESPN Stats & Information Before last year’s draft, ESPN Stats & Information highlighted a stat called standardized completion percentage, which is designed to capture a quarterback’s accuracy better than any traditional statistic. The premise of the stat is that not all passes are created equal: A screen pass is easier to complete than a 20-yard out route, so a player who throws a lot of screens could have an inflated completion percentage. Standardized completion percentage gives a quarterback credit for completing those short passes, but the credit he receives depends on how often an average quarterback would throw that pass. At its core, standardized completion percentage is similar to effective field goal percentage in basketball because it accounts for the distance of a quarterback’s pass, just as effective field goal percentage accounts for both 2- and 3-pointers. This stat also eliminates dropped passes and throwaways, because drops are not the quarterback’s fault and throwaways are generally a good decision. Evaluating the accuracy of NFL draft prospects using traditional completion percentage is nearly impossible because of the varying offenses run in college. Standardized completion percentage not only is a better measurement of accuracy, but it also has been shown to be a superior predictor of NFL success. In the last three seasons, the top three players in standardized completion percentage entering the draft were Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III and Teddy Bridgewater. All three have had above-average Total QBRs since entering the NFL and have a combined 56-39 regular-season record. Meanwhile, among players drafted in the first three rounds since 2011, the bottom three players in standardized completion percentage were Mike Glennon, Geno Smith and EJ Manuel. Those players all have below-average QBRs in the NFL and have combined for a 22-39 record. Smith and Derek Carr are great examples of the value of standardized completion percentage. In their final college seasons, each player led the nation in screen passes and ranked in the top eight nationally in completion percentage. Once accounting for the distance of their passes, their standardized completion percentages were among the worst of the draft-eligible prospects, and both have struggled with accuracy in the NFL. Looking forward to the 2015 draft class, Marcus Mariota is the most accurate quarterback of the group. He completed 68.3 percent of his passes with an average pass distance of 8.8 yards last year at Oregon. That resulted in a standardized completion percentage of 73.6 percent. Mariota’s accuracy has been pegged as an area of concern as he transitions to the pros. The numbers do not support this notion. He led all Power 5 quarterbacks in completion percentage on passes thrown 15 yards or longer last season and ranked second in completion percentage from inside the pocket. Although standardized completion percentage does not account for Oregon’s offense and how often Mariota was asked to read defenses, it captures his accuracy on the throws he was asked to make. Overall, the 2015 class is less accurate than the 2012 or 2014 classes. Mariota has the highest standardized completion percentage of the group, but he ranks behind Wilson, Bridgewater and Andrew Luck when they came out of college. Other accurate quarterbacks in the 2015 class include Kansas State’s Jake Waters (72.6 percent), UCLA’s Brett Hundley (71.6 percent) and Colorado State’s Garrett Grayson (71.0 percent). Among the top 15 FBS quarterbacks based on Scouts Inc. ratings, Duke’sAnthony Boone has the most concerning standardized completion percentage (58.3); he was one of the least accurate quarterbacks in the country. Oregon State’s Sean Mannion regressed considerably from his junior season. His 2014 standardized completion percentage of 67.7 is lower than that of any player drafted in the first three rounds in the last three draft classes. No one college metric will be able to predict quarterback success in the NFL. But this take on completion percentage, which is often misleading in college, is a truer measure of accuracy and can tell a lot about how a player will adjust to the NFL -- a league where accuracy is essential to a quarterback’s success.
You would think if it wasn't another garbage stat they would just go ahead and post the standardized completion percentage for at least the top 5 QB. Winston's standardized completion percentage is nowhere to be found as far as I can tell.
Or maybe they could at least share how it is formulated. The more I read about "standardized completion percentage" the more it sounds like a cryptic mythological proprietary stat that ESPN will never share the formula for, just like QBR. They are so vague when trying to define it
They probably won't share it or list the percentage for all qb's since it would then show it's uselessness. Reading another article before last year's draft they talk of the top 5 qb's drafted over the last two years ranked by "standardized completion percentage" but only list 4 of them. Was the fifth that much of a outlier that would make their stat look ridiculous?
That conversation really stood out for me, also. I understand you don't have to be a fiery guy to be productive in this league but that kinda took some of the shine off Mariota , for me.
Exactly, since the all time leader in this new stat is probably some random guy like Billy Joe Hobert or something, sort of how Charlie Batch is the all time leader for QBR
Wow I thought that comment from Nagle was a parody, that's how it actually went? Sounds like somebody needs some Daily Affirmations with Stuart Smalley
Maybe not exactly like that but Mariota was very matter of fact in his response to why he should be the #1 pick in the draft and when asked by Gruden if he really cared if he were the #1 pick he said "no". Again, I understand that bravado doesn't win games or else we'd have been undefeated thought Rex Ryan's tenure with the Jets, but I prefer the fiery confidence of Winston to the low key, "pick whoever you want" Mariota. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
not messing around. Its not word for word because I was quoting it from memory from watching the show, but pretty close to how it went down
It's not word for word but it's pretty directionally 100% correct. Gruden put him on the spot and wanted him to boast about himself and that doesn't appear to be in Mariota's nature. Some are put off by this and I get that. I'm put off by false bravado with guys tooting their own horn who don't have the resume to do so. Mariota is never going to toot his own horn. It was an uncomfortable position for Mariota but Gruden got the point he was trying to make. _
At the end of the day it's not that big a deal, its just a TV show but I am torn on seeing that and wish I hadn't. Its not so much about bravado but assertiveness. If he can't project his abilities verbally on a TV show where he's handed a softball question and the benefit of editing, how is he going to step into a professional football team's huddle, in the face of adversity and take control and gain respect? Its 3rd and 8, the receivers are grumbling about not getting their balls, the offensive line is struggling, maybe theres some bickering going on about mistakes made from the QB or complaining about the play calls and this kid walks into the huddle? Having said that I am the type to believe the QB doesn't have to be a big talker. And in recent years guys like Flacco and Eli Manning have been successful with similar personalities. But damn. Even those guys who would be quiet by church going standards had the desire enough to talk about themselves when prompted.
Fair enough. IMO it doesn't matter. I actually prefer someone who's more humble and level headed, who doesn't have to be the #1 pick. IMO someone like that is more of a team player, more coachable, isn't as worried about his own stats as the team's success, and will be less likely to hold out for more money than he's worth.
http://newnfldraft.com/lews-2015-nfl-mock-draft-6-10/ This had me howling with laughter this morning, thanks to whatever deluded Pats fan came up with it
I guess my thoughts on this are that they are completely different audiences, completely different arenas. He's not comfortable in front of a TV one on one but he's been on TV hundreds of times in front of millions of viewers and he's never cracked. Post game interviews he's very good. He was much more comfortable on the rest of that show talking to players and directing them through the drills so I think that's something he'll be comfortable doing on the field in the future. He was also great in his Heisman speech so when he's talking in front of a crowd and being humble--he can do it. One on one asking him to boast about himself or tout himself as the number 1 pick? Doesn't bother me. _
He looks like he has a tremendous amount of inner-confidence in his abilities--he's just not going to boast about it. Prove it on the field, as it were. _
