Umm, I understand that statjeff is considered a mathematical genius around here, and I don't disagree with anything that he has said. I have only tried to add context to the numbers he has produced, which I think he will agree is pretty important.
I am not misunderstanding ANYTHING. I understand EXACTLY what regression to the mean is. I have taught statistics at a university level. You are completely neglecting the fact that the Patriots achieve high performance routinely. That is their mean. For most teams 14-2 would be an outlier. For New England that is just not true. Over the past 5 years NE has totaled 63 wins, or 12.6 wins per year. Last year they achieved 14 wins which is 1.4 wins above their 5 year average. Considering the weak schedule (which is probably what they are facing again this year) there isn't any particular reason to believe last year's results were unusually aided by a confluence of positve random events. That sort of thinking is just viewing the facts through a green filter. Any reasonable evaluation would recognize the following: 1. NE did not lose anyone important in the offseason. 2. They have added some potentially important new players. 3. They have been averaging 12.6 wins per year over the past 5 years. 4. Their schedule this year isn't any stronger than last year. A prediction of 13 regular season wins is conservative under these circumstances.
IDK, Logan Mankins has already compared AH to Richard Seymore in the sense that practicing against great players will improve both of them (this was after their first practice matched up against each other) and he has reportedly dominated every one else we have thrown at him (as much as that's worth in TC). If you mean from a mental standpoint, I just get the sense that he will put in one good year (to prove his worth to the league) before he starts his antics again. Realistically, he NEEDS to succeed in this system, or else no one will ever touch him again with a 20 ft pole. As for Ellis, you might know his worth better than I do, but I personally think we value him as a rotational starter. I guess we have a lot of question marks at DL, but the bright news is that we have a lot of promising options. As long as a couple of them pan out, and we don't get massacred with injuries like last year, we should improve.
Statistically speaking then you would need to point out that the teams most important player is advanced in age and is no longer in his prime years.
why would you even bring greene up in a conversation about the patriots' crazy turnover differential last year? my point was that calling 1 season's worth of carries a career was misleading. and if any ne rb at any point this season does fumble, then last year does become a fluke. because as slim said, it is pretty ridiculous that your rbs did not fumble a single time.
As this off season unfolds, I would have to say the Pats made the most improvements from outside over last year. Add that to an already very good squad and its easy to pick them as the favorites preseason. Which really does not mean a fucking thing. The Steelers, Ravens, Pats and our Jets should all be in the mix. The Colts as well if Manning is healthy. Can't forget that thier entire squad was decimated with injuries last year. The Chargers and Chiefs will also to be interesting to watch thier progression this season, but I don't think they quite fit into the mix as of now.
Might I add the Patriots offense was completely exposed by Mangenius on ESPN back in January. The Jets used a similar plan and worked perfectly. Thats why Bill added 85. Ochocinco has never done anything to the Jets but get destroyed, so whats to be worried about?
There is no statistical evidence that Brady's performance is in decline, and in general quarterback performance declines slowly with age. thesportdigest.com/archive/article/when-does-football-player-get-old Sorry about the link, but I don't have 50 posts yet.
The impact of 85 is going to be interesting. Will Revis even cover him? I have my doubts as Cromartie is better at covering the taller less quick receivers than the Branches and Welkers of this world. The other thing is that wide receivers always seem to do better with Brady throwing to them. Ocho doing poorly vs the Jets in the past - what is the saying? Past results are no guarantee of future performance.
New England went 14-2 facing the Steelers, Ravens, Jetsx2, Packers, Bears, Vikings, Colts, and Chargers. In 2011 they get to face the Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos, Giants, Cowboys, and Redskins lol. You can talk about how improbable it is to go 14-2 or better in back to back seasons, but when you consider that a team went 14-2 facing three of the toughest divisions in football that season, and the following season they face 2 of the weakest, that counts for something too. I'm not sure I expect either the NFCE or the AFCW to have more than one winning team each after this off season. I say the NFCE because the Eagles are the only team to have made any improvements, the Giants lost quite a few key players, Redskins ...well ...who is their QB? Cowboys are a question mark, but I don't see many improvements from 6-10 last year.
lol, the fun thing about winning 14 games in a season is that every time you actually lose you have suddenly been "EXPOSED". Do you know how many times we have heard that term being tossed around, only to win the next X number of games? Also, in the two games you mention we were beat in the trenches. The ball was run down our throats, and Brady was disrupted by pressure all day long... if any of our offseason moves were direct responses to those losses it would be something like this: 1. adding Haynesworth, 2. drafting Solder, 3. signing Ellis, 11. drafting Marcus Cannon, 19. drafting Lee Smith,... 467. adding Ochocinco
The Vegas over/under for the Patriots is currently 11.5. The Ravens and Steelers are a full game worse. The Pats are also at 2.5 to 1 (29%) to win the AFC, as compared to the Ravens at 6.5 to 1 (13%), Jets 5 to 1 (16%), and Steeler 4 to 1 (20%). I think it's safe to say they're the favorites.
I don't think you can seriously say that the Pats have addressed their pass rush. If rolling the dice on Haynesworth and S. Ellis is the best you've got for that, then I can only shrug my shoulders. Pats should be the favorites this year, but it's not like '07 where the Pats had only one part of their team that was less than excellent (run game). They're a team in the mix that can be beat with the right game plan, just like anybody else. I don't think they're above the fray anymore. You're fooling yourself if you don't think that Pats-Jets will be just as neck-and-neck as it turned out to be last year when all the chips were on the table.
My point is that he has played 3 seasons in the NFL, with significant contributions in 2 of them. That combined with an ENTIRE COLLEGE CAREER seems like a reasonable place to start making assumptions as to whether a RB is extremely solid in protecting the ball, or whether he has gotten lucky and is thus liable to start going on a fumbling spree any second. Woodhead fumbled running the ball week 17 against Miami. Slim's original point was not even accurate.
The Ravens were hit hard by FA this off season. They expect to get Heap back...they didn't. They expected to get Mason back....they didn't. They also lost one of their key OLmen and DLmen (Gregg). They have essentially added no one. The will have to rely on a Rookie WR to become their #2 The Steelers didn't lose anyone, but didn't add anyone either. Like the Jets, they are both have top defenses, but are starting to age. I still think the Steelers will be right there in the end, but think the Ravens will slip a bit....as will the JETS....JMHO The Pats have kept everyone, but their under performing over paid situational pass rusher (TBC) and SIGNIFICANTLY added to a position of weakness on the DL. The Jets WON'T be lining up against UDFA's, UFL refugees, and late season pick ups this season In fact with the addition of Gerald Warren (who was the 2nd best DLman last season, the Pats now have about 20 DLmen (ithat's GOT to be a record of some kind) in camp, all who have started games in the NFL, competing for about 8 roster spots. Its going to be very interesting to see who gets the chairs when the music stops come the first week in September
Cromartie SHUT DOWN ochocinco completely, in the Thanksgiving game. And that was with T.O. on the same field. Cro should be able to destroy ochocinco again easily. Cro is 27 and and ochocinco is continuing to get worse as he ages.
I don't think Haynesworth (assuming he makes it through camp....so far so good though) or, Ellis, or Carter, OR Anderson, OR GWarren, OR any one of the half dozen new guys they have just brought in will cause the Pats to suddenly leap to the top of the league in sacks. Who ever winds up being the DL will be better than lining up the likes of rookies, UDFAs, UFL refugees, and 7th round draft picks that Wilfolk had to play with almost all year after TWarren and MWright were gone. Haynesworth ISN'T a sack artist. But he's the kind of guy who CAUSES others to get more sacks. The same can be said for Ellis. There is going to be one hell of a competition for roster spots in this TC. Several proven NFL quality DLmen aren't going to make it. The Bottom line is, how good the Pats DL will be can't be determined until it actually plays 10 or so games. But one thing I can count on is that it WILL be better than last year's group. Can Jet fans COUNT on that being the case for their DL?
Have you bothered to read my posts? I never said that I thought our pass-rush was addressed. The closest that I came to saying that was that "our DL will be better this year". It will. That is also not saying much. Something like 5 of our best 7 DL missed significant time injured last year. I think that our pass-rush is still one of our biggest question marks, but saying "our DL will be better" isn't exactly going out on a limb. I also haven't said anywhere that the pats-jets won't be neck-and-neck. In fact, my back and forth exchanges with Soxxx have basically been to the effect that we have literally alternated victories throughout the RR vs BB era, so YOU GUYS would be mistaken to assume that you will dominate us based on the last matchup.
