Giants game impressions

It's possible the Pats will make a Super Bowl run but not at the same level it has been possible for the last 5 years when every year they were the favorite to get there. The biggest reason they're on the decline is that Brady is getting older, entering the gray area where almost all QB's have a season left, maybe two at the outside.

The second biggest reason is that most of the great weapons they surrounded Brady with to get maximum value out of him are gone. Gronk is still here but who thinks he's going to play a full season at this point? He's already got knee issues after the surgery last year and you know that is going to blow up before long. It's just what happens to him, if he can get hurt he does.

Amendola and Edleman are both competent but that's kind of where their impact ends. Wes Welker was a much better slot receiver than either of them. Amendola is also very injury prone.

The Pats have two RB's with talent but one of them runs the ball well and the other is a pass catcher. That tips things for the defense when the Pats rotate them.

 

Going to get called a lot of names here probably but I don't think Hill played as poorly as people are saying.

Target 1: (Geno) Press - Pass Defense - Beats the CB at the line w/ slant, The throw was a bit late getting there, but he could certainly have cleaned up that route and maybe been in a better position to body out DRC. ~

Target 2: (Geno) Zone - Completion - Runs good route, doesn't get re-routed by the LB over the middle, catches the ball with his hands gets 10+YAC. +

Target 3: (Geno) Press - Drop - Double move from Hill has his man beat over the top. Throw is a little bit behind which forces him to come back towards the defender. But he did get his hands on the ball, and certainly should have made the catch. -

Target 4: (Vick) Press - Pass Defense - Beats his man off the line, Throw is late and behind him.

Did he play great? No, he didn't. But he didn't absolutely shit the bed like some of you guys are saying. He beat press coverage pretty well off the line all night and had a solid catch and run over the middle, Again showed his ability to assert himself in the blocking game but I'm pretty tired of marking that in the "win" column.

Honestly at this point I think he's pretty solidly in the #4 WR on the team and that seems about right. I guess only time will tell. I think Ford played himself off the roster last night.

I really hope the CS doesn't fall for the Gates illusion again.

 

We're not watching the same player play. It's not about now and then he did something right. It's about never coming up with a big play when the Jets need one and completely vanishing any time a decent cover guy is on him.

Why do you think the Jets QB's don't target the guy who is 6'3" with 4.37 speed?

 

If Marty figures out how to get him the ball in that 2nd level, where he has room to run, he's going to be problem for defenses. We need to use CJ as a Sproles option. Stop involving CJ in plays that involves breaking tackles and taking hits, we have Ivory and Powell for that. For run plays up in the middle he's a feast or famine player. He's either gonna get you 1 yard gain or give you big yards, and the former is likely.

 

I think your assessment is fair, one of the problems for Hill is, development wise he is not where he should be, because he has been injured so much.

If he gets injured again and losses significant playing time then the jets need to part ways with him, because they will never develope him.

 

Yeah, I think we will see them be a bit less dominant. If Gronk could somehow stay healthy for the entire season and postseason, I could easily see the Patriots winning the Super Bowl this year. He's worth something like an extra 70 or so yards and 7 or so points per game- a massive boost to their offense.

But like you pointed out, it's really unlikely that he will stay healthy for a whole season. He has said he will not adjust his playing style, and therefore he's still going to get hit in the knees constantly, and it's inevitable that someone will get a good shot at one of his knees again.

If the Patriots make it to the Super Bowl, they'll have to do it on the strength of their defense, and it remains to be seen how good it'll be. On paper they probably have the best corners in the league. But their linebackers and d-line are not dominant, and teams will be able to run on them.

That guy, Fumbleroony the running back (I think that's his name), he's going to cost them a game or two with his fumbling ways. I think they're still the favorites to run away with the division again, but the Jets do have some chance if things really break our way.

 

I'm thinking it isn't going to take a hit to the knee to put him out. I think he's going to have swelling and inflammation issues around the area as long as he is playing. He's the most brittle great player I have ever seen. It's like his tendons and cartilage are faulty somehow. When he had surgery on the wrist it promptly got infected and caused him real issues. It could be a lifestyle thing. He doesn't come across as particularly self aware about what it takes to stay healthy. He was in a club dancing like a week after the wrist surgery and a week later we started hearing rumors about the infection, which lasted all spring and summer and into the regular season before they finally got it under control.

 

I don't even understand the hesitation. He is our best option barring a trade or FA signing. So he gave up one deep pass; it happens to all CBs not named Revis. He was in position but lost the ball. Manning extended the play by getting out of the pocket, threw it a tad to the back shoulder plus the WR nudged him off. It was a very difficult play to defend. Unless we are judging him by Revis standards, he played very well certainly better than the all the other CBs not named Milliner.

 

If the refs are tightening what the defense is allowed to do to combat receivers anymore, Pats and Broncos just get stronger in the AFC.

The Pats have shifted fundamentally in recent years to relying on Brady. They ran into the problem every team in this generation has run into when doing that, your star QB cannot hide the team long enough to go on a Super Bowl run. Granted, playoffs every year is a not a failure, but the expectations are higher for them and they haven't hit them. They tried to shift back to defense and running but just haven't been able to do that effectively enough because they were missing defensive players with draft picks for a while. Hernandez being out really messed up their offense strategy and caused a shift. Gronk's injury also limited the offense by taking away a dual TE who can block and open up a run and go out and catch passes. Brady's decline in deep ball accuracy is also a problem in addition to not getting another receiver like Moss who makes throwing deep balls a very easy task and hides the one "weakness" Brady has.

Saying all that, a Patriots team going "only" 9-7 or 10-6 I could see, but I still think they go 12+ wins. The AFC is weak in my opinion, and a top QB gets you the playoffs in this era of the NFL. It wouldn't be surprising to me to see the Pats get more fortunate this season and have some surprising young players, a reliable defense, and a healthy Gronk. Even two out of those three previous things is enough for the division I think. I just can't doubt Bill and Brady until they actually fail in the regular season. I mean Bill managed to scrape 11 wins out with Cassel with an unexpected Brady injury. I personally can't doubt him until he fails in NE (or he might never and just peace out when Brady retires)

 

1. It's a pre-season game, you can't go blind trying to read too much into these things. We played well enough in the first half, no one got seriously injured. I'll take it.

2. We played better on defense, and largely held their 1s in check for the first half. 2 minute drill wasn't great, but, overall I thought our 1s played well on D. They were physical and caused problems. Glad to see that.

3. Our first team offense played well, much improved from large chunks of last year. We'll see tougher defenses, surely, but Geno looked calm and threw the ball well. Completing 5 passes to 5 different receivers was nice to see.

4. Our running game looked improved over last year as well. We could get into a virtuous cycle where the running game & the passing game are both good, and they feed each other. Often we've had one or the other, and sometimes neither. This year should be better.

 

There was a lot of things wrong with that play not all Hill's fault but I'll begin with him first. The slant route he ran was awful. Hill's route was robotic, like a dancer counting his steps in his head (1, 2, 3, break) and Hill drifted away from instead of attacking the ball. DRC was playing outside leverage so technically Hill should have have the advantage on any inside route. DRC was playing outside leverage so technically the WR should have the advantage on any inside route. However, against a good cover CB like DRC that advantage is slim and if your are running the route like a Pee Wee WR, it's non existent. Even though he is giving you the inside, you still have to press his outside shoulder before you cut in to slow down his break on the ball. Those are the little nuances that Hill struggles with besides the obvious drops.

Now the other issue with that play was Geno's footwork from center which was worse than Hill's route. The bad footwork led to him being late, as usual, on the throw.

 

So,. I went back and rewatched, Specifically focusing on Stephen Hill. Here are my observations. ( for these notes, WR1 is left side, WR2 is right )
21 Total Snaps. 9 run/screens ( 7 to the opposite side or up the middle ) 14 “Counted” plays.

You're welcome to go and re-watch or just take my word. I tried to be unbiased in my viewing.

Maybe we can put a plus or a minus next to each # and we'll see what we come up with.

Run Plays:
#1 Q1: 10:54 - Chris Johnson for 3 yards.
Hill stones the CB on the outside does not allow him to contribute.


#2 Q2: 13:41 - Screen to Ivory 23 yards
Hill rides his CB all the way to the end zone


Pass Plays

#3 Q1: 10:25 - WR1 w Kerley in slot; Shot Gun.
Geno is locked in on Hill here, and Hill beats DRC off the line and has space for the throw.


Hill lets the route drift up field allowing an opportunity for DRC to recover and make a play. There’s also a slight hesitation in the delivery.


#4 Q2: 14:32 - WR1; PA Bootleg right.
The whole defensive front bites on the play action and Hill floats into space behind them, Has space here to make a play even after Geno completes the rollout.


#5 Q2: 11:42 - WR1 w Ivory flex out next to him; Shotgun w/ empty backfield.
Ivory runs a drag route leaving Hill on an island on the left side of the field. Geno never really looked outside the hash marks on either side. He has a height advantage and actually runs a decent hitch and gives Geno a good target if he wanted to try and fit it in there.


#6 Q2: 4:11 - WR1; Shotgun. TBoh and CJ in backfield.
CJ Flexed out wide takes the CB in man off of Hill, This leaves him with a LB in coverage. Geno realizes this and waits for Hill to clear the zone, He hits him with a good pass Hill catches and and turns up field for another 10 yards.


#7 Q2: 3:44 - WR1; Decker slot inside him; Shotgun.
Geno takes the snap and locks in on either Amaro or Kerley, He’s so locked in on that side of the field the camera guy doesn’t even bother to show the other side of the field. Geno ends up tucking and getting positive yardage rather then forcing it to that side, But it appears as if both Decker and Hill are pretty open running slants to counter the off coverage they were getting.

and


#8 Q2: 3:01 - WR1; Shotgun
Hill has off coverage here, and is running a double move, He gets the CB to bite and is able to create some space for himself. The throw is slightly behind him which forces him to break his stride and allows the defense to recover just enough to get a touch on the ball ( maybe? ) but it still makes it to Hill, Would have been nice if he caught this one.





#9 Q3: 12:02 - WR2; Pistol formation.
Vick gets a little turned around and scans the field in the wrong direction I think. He looks to his check down first then scans right. He also tries to fake a handoff to no one. Regardless of all that, Hill completely turns around his WR and has space to take an open shot down field.

I don't think he's supposed to be facing that way?

#10 Q3: 11:24 - WR2; Trips Left.
3rd and 8 here Vick is looking for his safety valve to hit the first down and turn. Amaro does a nice job of getting to the marker and making himself a target but Vick never looks off him. Hill has beaten the press coverage, and has a step on his man and is running in open space.





#11 Q3: 9:41 - WR2; Iform.
First and 10 just about everyone on the interior of the Giants defense collapse on the run formation and Hill does a good job of planting his foot and getting inside, Vick is awkwardly late with the throw ( it seems like he thought he was rushed or pressured ). Second earlier, or half yard in front of Hill and this could have been a big gainer.



#12 Q3: 9:35 - WR2, Kerley inside him.
4 wide for Vick here and he remains focused on the left side of the field. Hill blows past the off man coverage and doesn't appear to have anyone in front of him. The safety would have had to make a choice between Kerley and Hill, and Hill already had a step on him.

Hill is the blip at the bottom with his CB still facing the QB.

#13 Q3: 4:40 - WR1; Amaro inside him. Shotgun.
Off coverage one on one. On the outside, He gets even with the defender and then gains a step as they run together, you can see when #44 completes the pass Hill has 2-3 steps on his man.


#14 Q3: 3:58 WR1 - Shotgun.
If you want to see Hills raw speed this is the play to watch, The CB never gets his hand on him and Hill blows by him like he was standing still. The 3rd string O-line didn't give Matty ice the time to get it down field though.

 

It must really suck being a dark sider on TGG:

* Idzik is a bean counter and can't evaluate anybody...
* Geno is horrible and will NEVER become even an average QB...
* Idzik should be fired for drafting a Pryor with Cooks still on the board...
* Amaro is a plodding stone hands retarded TE who can't block...
* Ground-n-pound is dead and a run game is no longer important...
* Our offense will finish dead last because Rex is an idiot who should be fired...

I know I know....let's see it during the regular season.

 

Regardless of my opinion of Hill, I enjoyed reading through this. Nice job. Wish more ppl would take time to put stuff like this together.

 

Great job putting all that together. Don't you think that the QBs lack confidence in Hill hence they do not look his way as often as the probably should? If yes, isn't that Hill's fault?

 

These screen shots illustrate to me that Hill is doing his job. Only problem is, our quarterbacks are so used to him not doing his job, that they don't even consider him a viable option. Another question is, how many of those balls that possible could have been thrown to him, are even caught by him? I guess we'll have to wait and see in the regular season.

 

Putting together I watched a lot of slow motion footage and it does seem like there is a hesitation to pull the trigger when it comes to Hill, Particularly with Geno.

I hope / think we will be taking more shots down field once we start game planning. That overthrown ball to Nelson is the longest throw in the air I can remember so far. We have so much speed, but we don't seem to want / try to use it. A few of those clips I pulled through had Hill bombing down the sideline with nothing but green grass and end zone. I think they have to take that that shot at least once a game. I don't care if you're throwing to Forest Gump ( so long as it's not Clyde Gates ).

 

Heading into this season, The Jets knew that Decker, Kerley, and Nelson was going to be our main receiving core. The Jets also still had Salas, Gates, and Hill and then drafted 3 WR's, with the hopes that atleast one of those six guys could separate themselves as our 4th main receiver. Salas has 4 catches for 54 yards and a TD. Gates has 5 catches for 75 yards. Hill has 2 catches for 27 yards. Salas seems to be who the Jets like. Gates may have saved his job by playing pretty well. Hill has done exactly what his detractors said he would do and this is nothing. I said a month and a half ago that the Jet fans throwing around that "receivers break out in year 3." , were totally off the mark and Hill wouldn't do anything to show he improved and that's exactly what has happened. Good receivers break out in year 2. After that it is very rare for one to figure it out in a big way.

So here's the bottom line. Hill may not get cut before this season starts but he won't see any more then 5 - 8 snaps per game. Geno is the leader of the offense and although he won't say(not that he should), that he doesn't trust Hill, his play says otherwise. He barely gives the guy a look when the play is going on. That's really all I need to know. Geno has shown vast improvement this pre-season and if he doesn't trust Hill, then keep him off the field. PERIOD. The last thing we need is other teams recognizing that Hill is on the field and pretty much ignoring him all together and making it harder for other guys to get open.

 

Gates is a wildcard for sure, but I'm not sold on him yet. Last preseason I said something to the effect of Gates being the new Santonio Holmes. This was based on his footwork and ability to make some tough athletic grabs and get yards after the catch. This year it's funny that's he's wearing #10. I see Gates as Holmes' protege. I get the impression that Holmes took him under his wing the last couple years. He seemed to be making some progress before he got injured last season, but he had a few critical drops (namely the one against NE that could have won us the game). Unfortunately it seems his head is not always in the game, but I can see him making the final roster. This is prove it year for him and I could easily see our final roster with Decker, Kerley, Nelson, Hill, Gates and possibly Salas. It's hard to say, though. Salas could easily be another preseason hero and we may keep a rookie on board instead, although we haven't seen much from them.