Full 2021 Mock Offseason

A team builder who is serious about a turnaround situation like the Jets that refuses to even acknowledge repeated past failures is bound to repeat them. Its simply irresponsible

-There appears to be 2 long term starters on an underperforming OL
-1 rotational RB playing behind a 37 y.o
- TE is a wasteland w zero production
-Perriman is likely gone.Mims has an extremely limited same size,which leaves a 28 y.o slot WR as our main focal point in passing game

Wonder what Trevor Lawrence would say about this offense being so promising & how its more important to stop OTHER teams QBs rather than helping a team’s own?What would SAM say?

 

Thank you for your thoughtful, detailed response. I truly appreciate it. I love these kinds of discussions.

I both agree and disagree with your statement that the failures of previous regimes cannot be taken into account. I understand what you're saying, and there is some merit to that; however, imo one has to take into account the failures of the previous regimes at least to some extent, because it has affected the makeup of the team and the fanbase's perception of the team and what it's philosophy is. While GMs have to do what they think best and not worry about what the fanbase thinks, when a fanbase is as disgruntled as the Jets' fanbase is and the team has been so focused on defense, and pretty much ignored the offense, that has to be taken into consideration. For instance. The Jets have only drafted 3 OL, and all of them in lower rounds in something like 10 years. Until Douglas took Perine this year, it had been a while since they had drafted a RB as high as the 4th round. I think Shonn Greene or Bilal Powell was the last one before that. I believe that all of the WRs they've drafted since Jerricho Cotchery have been busts. How long had it been since the Jets drafted a QB high (since Geno Smith)? It has also been a very long time since they drafted an Edge high. So, imo, those things have to be taken into consideration. It's immaterial whether Idzik or Mac made the mistake, only that there are those holes on the roster. Drafts aren't conducted in a vacuum. They're based upon the talent on the team (or lack thereof).

We do definitely agree that the defense is bad in key places (Edge and CB, but also at LB). Even with that, there has been and still is pretty good depth on the DL and at Safety and to a lesser degree ILB. When one compares that with the offense, imo it becomes clear that the offense should be the priority. The OL still isn't very good and there's little or no depth. The QB position isn't very good. There is some depth this year, but going forward with Morgan, we don't know. At RB there's no quality starter and questionable depth. At WR we have two quality starters, but little or no depth. Going into this season, I would have said that TE was a strength, but now it is a black hole. Wesco is a good blocker, and that's all we can count on going forward.

Even if it takes the defensive players we draft in 2022 a half a season to develop, that is still faster than the year or two it can take a QB, his OL, and skill position players to gel together in a new offense.

 

Pt. 2

With your thinking that it's a QB-driven league, then it seems to me that it would be MORE important for Douglas to build the offense around Lawrence/Fields to give him every opportunity to develop and succeed. Even though pressuring the opposing QB is extremely important, it won't help our rookie QB develop, so in that sense drafting an Edge over a WR, or TE, or OG would be counterproductive. IMO putting pressuring opposing QBs over ensuring that your own QB develops and succeeds is akin to drafting a player because you know one of your division rivals covets him, even though you don't really need or want him. It's not doing what's in your own best interest. It wouldn't matter if the Edge we drafted wound up being LT, Reggie White, the Bosas, and all the other great pass rushers rolled into one, if Lawrence or Fields failed to develop/succeed because it took 2-3 years to surround him with quality weapons.

I agree with the ways that a team can build around its QB or build in general. With a QB like Lawrence or Fields, I think #1 is no good. You're asking that QB to change his style of play (in effect handcuffing his talent) and asking him to only be a game manager. That can delay and even hurt a QB's development. I think it better to let them play, take their lumps and learn.

Two is a viable way to handle it when one has a quality veteran QB that the rookie can sit and learn behind. When the QB is the #1 pick in the draft, one cannot do that. The expectation is that he will play immediately, and rightfully so. The problem with this approach is that a QB can only learn so much by sitting and watching. They learn the most and most quickly when they are on the field playing. Now if the QB has fundamentals that need to be refined or if he needs to learn to read defenses, then yes, he should sit, perhaps regardless of whether one has a quality starter or not. Fundamentals can't be fixed while playing. If a QB goes #1 in the draft, it's assumed that he doesn't have glaring fundamental issues and has the ability to read defenses.

I believe that #3 is the best way for a great young QB prospect to learn if he is ready to play (no fundamental issues). He can learn and grow with his OL and skill position players. He is free to make mistakes and learn from them. The important thing is learning from them, and that's where things can get sketchy. Perhaps Brett Favre would have become a better, less turnover-prone QB if Holmgren had benched him a time or two, since Favre refused to learn from his mistakes. One can go too far with trying to limit mistakes and make the young QB too cautious and tense, however. When players are uptight and playing not to make mistakes, they are going to make more mistakes than normal, and it can have a real negative effect on their confidence/psyche. Like CBs, QBs need the ability to forget about mistakes on the next play. I think this way of building around a young QB is the best, because it also gives him the best chance to succeed because he has weapons around him, and he can learn how to use those weapons to keep opposing Ds off balance and move the ball down the field. Having lots of weapons around him makes things easier for him, doesn't put a ton of pressure around him to have to carry the team on his shoulders. All he has to do is get the ball to those playmakers and let them do their thing. It's also best for the QB and team in terms of growth. It's not a recipe for instant success, but that doesn't matter, as there's no immediate pressure to win. They can try things that they wouldn't if winning games was all important. I believe that teams that do this have the ability to win their share of games, but can lose more than perhaps they would if they were focused solely on being conservative and winning. Again, that (being conservative and focused solely on winning) doesn't help the QB develop his game, and it hurts the GM in terms of the draft. A rebuilding team needs the best talent it can get and needs to get crucial holes filled. The more a team wins, the worse their draft position, and the harder it can be to get the talent one needs and to fill holes with high-caliber players. Thus, I'd rather have Lawrence with a bunch of weapons around them, and let them play wide open next year. If he throws 15 interceptions, and they lose 10 or more games, big deal. The focus is on development. In turn that will give the team better draft position in 2022 to get the caliber Edge, CB and LB they want and need. If you've limited your QB in the style of play that best suits him, chances are, he's not going to be ready to break forth in 2023. He's either going to be unhappy or struggling, or if you suddenly take the restraints off, it could be like his rookie season again in terms of making mistakes. I would have zero problems living and dying on the success of Lawrence, Mims, Crowder, another quality WR, a quality TE and RB for the next two seasons. I don't think they should try to rush the rebuild. I think they should do it the right way and focus on developing the players rather than making the playoffs and winning. IMO the latter will come and be more fruitful if the focus is put on development first, and letting players find themselves, then focusing on winning using their full talents and abilities, not restricted talents and abilities.

To be clear, I'm not saying that all 9 picks should be used on offense, although I'd be fine with that. I don't want Douglas to reach, and don't think that he will or would. At the Seahawks' pick or at our pick at the top of the 2nd round, if there is a great Edge or CB prospect sitting there that's head and shoulders above any WR, TE, RB, or OG at that point of the draft, then I'd hope that Douglas would trade down if he got a good deal, and then take an offensive player. If he didn't have the opportunity to trade down, or if he decided that that Edge or CB were too good to pass up, I'd have no problem with his taking them, either. I just prefer that all of the first 4 round picks be used on offense, but that doesn't mean that would be possible or the wisest course, and I believe that he needs to do everything he can to surround Lawrence or Fields with topnotch playmakers and a solid OL.

With regards to FA, the Jets have lots of cap space, and it would be ridiculous not to use it. I'm not saying bring in a bunch of older, expensive FAs with the idea of going all in in 2021. I'm saying use it mostly on younger players. I would make an exception in the case of Allen Robinson, as he could really help Lawrence develop. Thuney is only 27 and could help the OL develop and protect Lawrence for at least least 3-5 years, maybe longer. If there's a good young CB that Douglas likes, sign him. If he wants to sign Ngakoue, I wouldn't hate it because he's younger as well, but I'd be happy waiting to get our Edge in 2022. I think signing a WR and OG in FA is the best use of cap space, FA $s, and would be the best thing for Lawrence/Fields and the team. If there's money leftover that he can sign a defensive starter or two or improve defensive depth, great.

Again, I don't believe that balance has to be 50-50 every year, and don't think that it is. In some years, more offensive players are drafted/added, and in others more defensive players are added. That depends upon not just team needs, but upon players that are available that fit the schemes and who have the requisite character, talent, and work ethic.

Again, thanks for your response. I respect you and your perspective and your opinion on this. It can be a valid approach. In this instance, I don't think it is due to the nature of Lawrence and Fields and the Jets' situation.

 

Before we write off the defense in the upcoming draft, let's not become a team like the Cowboys or Seahawks with top offenses that can't buy a win b/c their defense can't stop a nose bleed.

 

I agree that offenses need a field stretch to keep Ds honest and from stacking the box. I think if the Jets had Mims and Robinson , opposing Ds wouldn't be able to ignore the deep ball, particularly with Lawrence at QB. The point can be made that the Jets already have two field stretchers on the roster, not even counting Perriman, since he is due to become a FA. J. Smith is very fast as is V. Smith. To keep opposing Ds honest, one doesn't have to have a Tyreek Hill. Just the threat of getting beat deep a couple of times a game can be enough to keep that S deep and keep the D spread.

Let's say the Jets add Lawrence, Pitts and Gainwell in the draft. Do you really think that the Jets would have trouble moving the ball or that opposing Ds would be able to ignore the deep ball and cheat forward? I don't. Pitts can stretch the field down the seam. Mims is great on deep routes and deep outs. With Crowder working underneath and Gainwell a HR threat and an excellent receiving threat. I think opposing DCs would have nightmares.

 

no way perriman has any sort of market. he didn't last year, he's done nothing this year to help it, cap is down and more WRs on the market right now. He'll be lucky to get 5 mil.

as far the Wrs go, the more I think about it, the more I want one of the big 3. Good coaches find ways to use the talent they have. Would you pass on julio jones if you already had calvin johnson? doens't make sense. Were also counting a lot on an unproven mims who has been injured most of the year. landing a top WR puts them outside with mims. crowder in the slot. perriman and rookies can rotate in. I know what your trying to do and I don't disagree as there isn't a right and wrong way to build teams, but my main concern is setting up tlaw to fail like we did to sam. we need to load up the offense with talent. signing one of the top WRs lowers our draft need which could be used on a RB like Etienne at the top of the 2nd round.

 

cap room wise we are gonna be close to 80 mil spendable after you account for some cuts and rookie contracts. but i'm sure you already know this. that's a lot of money to spend. no reason not to grab a WR to help out tlaw. It allows us more draft flexiblity. if we have mims, perriman, crowder, juju, now we don't need to burn a top pick for a WR. we could still draft one in the mid rounds (4-5) and of course grab a couple of UDFA and have them battle with smith, smith, berrios, etc for the rest of the roster spots and assuming we draft tlaw we should be able to move sam for a 2nd or 3rd easily so we'll have 5 more picks in the 1st 3 days after taking tlaw to get help for the o-line, defense, and maybe RB and/or TE. It gets a lot easier though after the picks and FA class are locked in

 

I don't think we should completely ignore the "D" - although I wouldn't be upset if we took all "O" in the draft - but at least reverse the priority of the past 10-15 years where the top 3 picks or more were always on defense. I see no reason why the defense can't be significantly upgraded by adding a stud pass rusher and a strong CB, either or both in FA. The cap room is available. The only way to get a legit stud pass rusher in the draft is using a top 10 (or maybe even top 5) pick, and that has to be reserved this year for a QB. And while a CB is needed, it's not as big a need as a stud WR or OL, so the second #1 pick should be used for one of those spots. And whichever of those was not filled with the second pick, needs to be taken with the third pick. Then at that point we can start thinking "D".

 

I don't think those of us saying that offense should be pretty much the entire focus of THIS offseason above and beyond defense is saying that should be for the next several years. But I am for using a MAJORITY of the draft picks (to me using the first 6 on offense would be perfectly fine including a potential 2 gotten for Sam giving us 2 picks in each of the first 3 rounds) on offense. The MOST important thing is giving a 1st year rookie QB as many weapons and protectors on offense as early and often as possible. The earlier we get those offensive pieces around him, the quicker he develops into a franchise QB. We need 3 OL minimum, a RB, a TE, and 2 WR. Nobody is saying don't ever draft/get defense again. But the following year we will still have cap space, 2 1st rounders and other resources to worry about the defense, but you would be year 2 into Lawrence/Fields working with the same offensive talent in the second year of whatever system the new HC is running and not then going and adding new offensive players to the mix that need to build chemistry with your young QB.

We can't keep making the same mistakes over and over and over again and wondering why we haven't been able to develop a young QB for decades. Protect your QB and give him as many playmakers as possible KC is a perfect example. They surrounded Mahomes with as many weapons as humanly possible and a good line then worried about getting just enough defense around him to win super bowl. That's how you do it.

 

Good job, thanks for the detailed work.

 

not sure if I’d compare JJ to TJ. JJ might not be worth the money, but he’s decently competent and puts in effort. TJ was an ass clown who took the money and ran.

 

I disagree with your approach to WR. For beginners, Ju-Ju is a slot WR, so unless we're planning on trading Crowder, there's little point in signing him. IMO Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, and Kenny Golladay are the three WRs we should be focusing on in FA and signing one of them is a must. I like Perriman, but he cannot stay healthy so we can't count on him. I'm fine with bringing him back, but that wouldn't prevent me from drafting a WR high. Drafting a WR high isn't burning the pick. IMO if Rashod Bateman is sitting there at Seattle's pick in the 1st round, we'd be foolish to pass on him unless Travis Etienne, Kyle Pitts or Pat Freiermuth is sitting there. I might even take Wyatt Davis or Trey Smith there as well, but we can't wait too long to take a WR because they go quickly. We saw that last year. Teams want to help their QBs and offenses. Few other teams shy away from taking WRs in the 1st round. Good WRs can be found in the 4th and 5th rounds, even as UDFAs, but that doesn't happen that often, and even when it does, they sometimes take a year or two to develop. We need quality WRs around Lawrence immediately if we're going to help him develop into a FQB.

One of the complicating factors is that we need a starting-caliber RB. I may be wrong, but it doesn't appear to be a great or deep RB class. There's Etienne, Chuba Hubbard (who is one-dimensional, as he hasn't proved to be a good receiver), Najee Harris, then there's a drop off to Kenneth Gainwell. UNC RB Javonte Williams appears to be a pretty good prospect, but I haven't seen anyone else yet that excites me.

 

WR coaches are now saying they want WRs who can play all 3 spots at any given time to take advantage of matchups. The more routes guys can run the better but its now more about overall athleticism combined w a diverse skillset than it is if they are an X,Y or Z. Obviously there are exceptions but this is now the mentality.

However, to your point which is a good one they do want diverse skill sets for different situations & matchups.But now its all based on mirroring the 5 spots in basketball.Everything from the tall Powerful center to “rebound”,to the quick slashing point guard. Obviously the “4” or “5” is more likely to play the X & the “2” is more inclined to play z or slot but everything is on the table.

 

counter point to that. juju is younger (23 to 27) crowder has 1 year left (2021) signing juju to a 5 year deal keeps him locked in for 5 years while crowder likely walks after 2021. or we could trade him for an extra draft pick maybe a 5th or so. or keep him for depth and let him walk and get a comp pick possible. I'm not locked into juju though. I'd be happy with any of the top Wrs. I think all 4 you listed are WR1 in the NFL so we can pair with mims and crowder. I want to set up out next QB to suceed and not give him the sam treatment. I have no issues taking a WR high. I think you misunderstood that. I was saying if we set up our WRs pre-draft then we can use the pick on another need since there are a lot of good FA Wrs but no good edge rushers or CBs really and only 1 good lineman off the top of my head and I doubt any good RBs

 

Probably a fair critique, but I really believe MacCagnan would have ponied up the $40-50-M Jenkins was asking for last offseason (he crawled back the jets for $5M). Jenkins probably does put in the effort, but rarely if ever beats the OT around the edge. He plays a pass rush position, and the only sacks he ever gets are coverage sacks. Hoping Douglas moves on from Jenkins this offseason.

 

Right on--The jets DO need a decent RB. Perine is a backup at best, and I never liked the Gore signing from day 1. I suspect Douglas will trade down from Seattle's #1, and get a RB in round 2 or 3. Throw a dart at the map--the jets have tons of needs.

 

At least Seattle has Jamaal Adams at safety to basically watch the RB charge into the end zone last week instead of trying to tackle him.