Franchise Bryce Huff

Just a few points: Huff is listed as a DE on nfl.com, so let's go with this assumption. https://overthecap.com/franchise-transition-and-rfa-tenders
Projected DE Franchise $23,348,000; Transition $20,141,000

Now, what is a guy like him worth? We signed Lawson for 3 year 45 mil, 30 mil (1st two years guaranteed). That's 15 per. Now, that was 3 years ago. In today's terms that 15 mil per contract is probably about 16.5-17 for the same level player. Now, Lawson was extremely injury prone. That is worth at least 10-15% maybe more. So, basically, a non injury prone Lawson level player at 25 years of age 3 years ago is probably at least 19-20 mil dollar player today.

Is Huff better than Lawson was 3 years ago as a FA player? I think a strong argument can be made that yes. His pressure rate is a lot higher, and Lawson never had more than 6-7 sacks in a year. Huff is coming off 10.5 sack season. Lawson was never known to be a strong run defender. Was he better than Huff, perhaps a little. But rushing QB is always at a premium. So to me, 20 mil annually for Huff today compares favorably to 15 mil per, which we paid to Lawson 3 years ago.

Now, 20 mil is the exact value of a transition tag. At worst, JD can give him that tag - it is just a 20 mil deal for 1 year, which Huff is worth either way, and then see what other teams offer him with the right to match. Just to let him go without putting some kind of tag is to me a GM malpractice. Which probably means that's what the Jets will do, but I feel it is a huge obvious mistake.

 

You can't use Lawson as your baseline. It was an incredibly stupid signing by a GM that really struggles with pro scouting and misses on nearly every free agent acquisition.

Huff will get what the top market of other (non-stupid) GMs are willing to pay for him. I don't think non-stupid GMs are rushing to pay a part type player $20 mill a year

 

Fine, I'll "try" to be more positive.

Not that it matters, I went and did some digging. Statistically, the NY Jets fielded the #3 "total" defense this year, now that the season is finally done. https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nfl/2023-nfl-defense-rankings-team-pass-and-rush-stats

A little more detail reveals, for all the money we spent on the DL and LB'ers, the Jets STILL sit all the way down at 25 when it comes to the run. Pass the team was #2. All the other categories have the team sitting basically mid-pack. If not for the pass defense, this "elite" unit that we all brag about would be sitting somewhere in the low teens/high 20's. That places the Jets, along with the Panthers #4 and Patriots #7, as the only other teams, in the top 10 defensively that did NOT make the playoffs. Of course, to paint the whole picture, the team was down so often that teams just loaded up to run because they knew a 3 point lead was as good as 30 when it comes to the offense. So, in summation, no, we do not franchise Huff. His impact, where it should it have been felt, was minimal at best. I'd prefer we pay someone to stop the run, we have ENOUGH pass rushers at this point in time. (can't believe I can actually say that of a NY Jets team)

 

Why is it GM malpractice? Teams let players walk all the time. It’s not like baseball where 83 win teams dump as many pending free agents as possible at the deadline for prospects.

Huff’s a decent player. He had a good season in an obvious pass rushing role. I’d love to keep him but the numbers don’t add up. If we end up with $45 million in cap space, $11-12 for draft picks, then the other $33 million needs to go to the offense. You want to leave $13 million for the offense because we retained a backup defensive end?

 

I get what you mean. It felt like no matter who we played we got ran all over. I do agree we should not franchise Huff.

You can't fix a whole team in 1 off-season and I believe we won't do anything but offense this year. For better or worse....

Sent from my genius mind.

 

I challenge you to find me a single 25 or so year old 10+ sack guy with insane QB pressure numbers and without injury history who walked in recent memory. I will help on this: Trey Hendrickson. Also a guy who does not have good running defense. He had 3 more sacks than Huff, but Huff had a better QB pressure rate before becoming a FA. And this is still considered one of the worst blunders in Saints history: https://saintswire.usatoday.com/202...als-trey-hendrickson-contract-sacks-pro-bowl/ Anyone else that comes to mind? I doubt you will find a lot of examples, because it does not happen all the time that a young healthy 10+ sacks guy is walking.

As far as the CAP #s you gave, CAP does not work like this. You can restructure other contracts to create a lot more room. Now that's something teams do all the time and I can give plenty of examples. At least we are below the CAP. Some start the offseason above the CAP and then still sign big name players but converting salary to signing bonus. We can easily do the same in the next year or two.

Now, regarding Huff being a decent player. We have not generated pass rush off the edge without him. He is the only guy we have that is elite at this. He has 20.1% pressure rate, with total of 67 pressures. JJ has 12.6 for a total of 56 pressures, while playing significantly more. And Huff is entering his prime improving every year. To let him go now when at the very least we can tag him for 20 mil, which is worth, for a right to match any offer, to me is just nuts.

 

There's absolutely no way that they can franchise Huff, certainly not at the $20 million number I've seen mentioned here. It stinks that Douglas has painted himself into this corner, but it is what it is at this point. Need to spend the bulk of the available resources on OL, WR, and backup QB.

 

Yannick Ngakoue is a better comparison. He signed a one year tender at $12 milllon and then a two year contract for $13 million per year.

Haason Reddick got a 1-year, $6 million deal after putting up 12.5 sacks.

Z’Darius Smith - $16 million/year.

I’m sure there are more but I’m trying to keep it recent due to the needed adjustment for NFL cap inflation.

 

Yannick is not a better comparison. First of all he was tagged, which is what I am suggesting to do with Huff. But more importantly, when he became free agent his pressure rate was 9%. This explains why he was not retained after 5 years. This is less than half the pressure rate Huff is producing. And yet still he was tagged. If anything this firmly supports my point.

Smith has 10 sacks also, but his pressure rate was 12.6, not 20.1 like Huff. He was signed for 16.5 mil in 2019. Now is 2024, and prices went up. This is another good comparison why Huff is worth around 20 or high teens. He went on to make 3 Pro Bowls. Again proving my point.

Reddick is the only example which it seems like he went below the market. He did end up making two pro bowls and had 21 sacks one year.

If anything all these examples show how stupid it would be to let Huff go. If he ends up making 3 pro bowls in next 5 years or 2 pro Bowls and 21 sacks in a season, would it be so bad? And he seems to have similar sacks now and much higher pressure rate than most comparables.

 

Terrible idea - which means the Jets will probably do it.

 

Pressure rate (percentage) for a player like Huff is dangerous. He only played 3rd downs.

of course Jermaine Johnsons’s percentage is lower, he had to actually set the edge and defend running plays

 

Huff also played on one of the best defensive lines in the league.

Pressure rate is a very overrated stat. It was the one stat everyone was swooning over when we signed Lawson. The offense can convert on positive plays when someone registers a pressure. Some of the better QB’s in the league thrive under pressure (Burrow, Mahomes namely among a couple others).

Huff has a lot more question marks than you’re laying out as well. How well does he hold up at 50 snaps a game, including on running downs? Will he be able to generate pressure as well when he’s not playing on the 3T side next to Q getting double teamed?

I wish we could keep him. The Jets cap situation is a disaster though. They’d be better off giving him a long term deal and spreading the money out than tagging him and trying to buy any resemblance of an offense for next year with a guaranteed $20 million cap hit on the tag.

 

Cap situation makes this a very hard proposition. We need to go with the young blood under rookie contracts and put our money on offense. A couple of cap heavy hitters on D need to get their contracts adjusted like CJ for starters.

 

Yes, they can thrive under pressure, but without pressure they will punish you way worse. You give these guys time, forget about it. At least when you pressure them, you have some sort of chance. I agree Huff has some question marks, but there is a lot of good and like I said when coaches didn't play him early, we did not generate much pressure on QBs. We need him and paying market price is not the worst thing that we can do. As examples of Hendrickson, Za'Darius, and Reddick show, these few teams that let young durable and very good pass rushers of this caliber go, later live to regret it.

CAP wise the Jets are not that bad. Only recently JD moved some money around and these were not major restructures. There is a lot of room to free up. And if someone does offer a crazy deal to Huff, maybe then we will have no choice. But a 20 mil transition tag to me is an absolute no brainer to start with. Then we can go from there. He will likely not end up playing on the tag anyway. Either we match someone else's offer for a multi year deal and have his CAP number lower, or will give him a multi year deal with more than 20 guaranteed total but less than 20 annually. But first things first: tag him before deadline.

 

He may be priced out of the Jets FA budget, but if I was GM I'd give really serious consideration to cutting Mosely, Tomlinson, JFM, and/or anyone else that would give me cap space in order to keep Huff and still be able to sign a quality starting LT in FA. I'd hate to lose Mosely. He's been very good for the Jets, but it's a pretty sure thing that he's gone after this year anyway. When Huff could play for 10 more years and provide the pressures and sacks the team needs, I'd hate to lose him to keep Mosely and Tomlinson.This is where JD needs to earn his money, by converting salary to bonus, restructuring contracts, and jettisoning dead wood.

 

I agree with this to an extent, but it will do little good to fix the offense, but break the D in the process. If Huff leaves, and JJ gets injured or McDonald can't come close to bringing what JJ and Huff bring in the pass rush, then opposing QBs will have all day to pick the Jets' D apart.

 

Let me put it another way. Would you rather head into free agency trying to workout a long term deal with Huff or trading him? Or would you rather use that $20 million on someone like Michael Pittman or Tee Higgins? Or Jonah Williams?


We’re going bargain hunting if we do what you propose. And teams really don’t use the transition tag because they obviously think it’s a disadvantageous position to be in so we have to just call it the franchise tag or nothing.