Agreed that Herndon looked like ass and that in LaFleur's scheme we'll see a lot of the TE. So I'd rather not go with the guy who has mostly looked like ass with the occasional flash of brilliance. We've got the money, let's sign a legitimately solid TE like Jonnu Smith.
This tells me that Schwartz's health outlook is not good. Fisher was simply a cap casualty and I think it was somewhat expected. But they wouldn't have cut Schwartz if they thought he would return to his old self. I could see Fisher going back on a reduced number. Back injuries are bad reoccurring injuries for the big guys.
Davis had 984 yards last season. He got a 1st down on 75.38% of his receptions. I'll take that any day. He's also a good blocker and would be a great fit in our offense.
I know, I can read stats but the same was said about Robby and his close to 1000 season, close but no cigar. That 1st down and reception stat wouldn't have happened here would it and you already mentioned his blocking. People can occasionally not agree on a player, it is no biggie.
Fisher snapped his Achilles last season as well, that will take some getting over. I don't want us to sign any FA with injury issues, our luck with FA signings is not good on this record, so steering clear from the outset is the course of prudence.
Oh shit yeah I forgot about that. He likely wasn't playing this year anyways with a snapped achilles that late in the season. They say that you can relatively recover in 12 months but it's 18 months until you're close to your old self again. https://lermagazine.com/article/return-to-play-concerns-following-achilles-tears
I would be surprised if the Jets don't make a run at Schwartz. He's technical sound, durable, and proven. For reference:
Cairo Santos and Younghoe Koo off the market. Joe, I'm hoping that you're in contact with Daniel Carlson and his agent!
Shaq Griffin is a free agent. I imagine he'll be a target. Pretty good player in that cover 3 out in Seattle. I won't act like I have a clue about Michael Davis from the Chargers but he played under Gus Bradley who Saleh coached under in Seattle and Jacksonville.
3 days away from the legal tampering period and it seems there are a lot less Jet FA rumors than normal. I would think a large part of that is less interactions because of Covid but it seems there are less leaks with JD as GM.
It's a breath of fresh air after the Maccagnan days where the media knew more about our intentions than the front office themselves.
https://jetsxfactor.com/2021/03/12/new-york-jets-free-agent-profile-tennessee-titans-wr-corey-davis/ New York Jets free agent profile: Tennessee Titans WR Corey Davis By Michael Nania - 03/12/2021 Corey Davis was one of the most efficient wide receivers in football in 2020. Should the New York Jets offer him an elite-level contract? Positives Ridiculous efficiency in 2020 Davis was an absolute monster in his fourth NFL season. Check out where he ranked among 163 qualified wide receivers in a few different efficiency metrics: Percentage of routes gaining a first down or touchdown: 12.9% (99th percentile) Overall Pro Football Focus grade: 86.9 (91st percentile) Yards per route run: 2.58 (98th percentile) DVOA: +22.4% (90th percentile) Missing two games and playing in a run-heavy Titans offense, Davis ranked only 64th among wide receivers in routes run (381), yet he ranked 18th in receiving yards (984) and 22nd in conversions (49). Davis’ rate of picking up a conversion on 12.9% of his routes trailed only Davante Adams (15.7%) and Titans teammate A.J. Brown (13.5%). Intermediate prowess Davis is at his most dangerous in the intermediate area of the field (10-19 yards beyond the line of scrimmage). In 2020, he tied for fourth in receptions (27) and third in receiving yards (493) in the intermediate range, trailing only Stefon Diggs and Calvin Ridley in both categories while tying with DeAndre Hopkins in receiving yards (who played two more games than Davis). Elusiveness With 28 career broken tackles over 207 receptions, Davis has averaged 0.135 broken tackles per reception, a solid mark. The 2020 average for wide receivers was 0.111. In each of the past three seasons, Davis posted a YAC above expectation average of at least +0.5 (a stat via NFL Next Gen Stats that compares a player’s YAC versus the amount of YAC that the average player would have been expected to produce in the same situations). Run blocking Davis has a good reputation as a blocker. Over the past three seasons, he posted a composite PFF run blocking grade of 68.7 (2020 WR average: 59.8). In 2020, he ranked 28th out of 116 qualified wide receivers (77th percentile) with a 67.5 run blocking grade. Durability Save for two games missed due to COVID-19 in 2020, Davis has only missed one game due to injury over the past three seasons, which was due to a hip injury in 2019. Back in his rookie season of 2017, Davis missed five games due to a hamstring injury. Overall, Davis has played in 62 out of 70 possible regular season and playoff games for the Titans (88.6%). Age Davis just turned 26 years old in January, so he’s entering his prime.
Negatives Outlier status of 2020 Teams will need to decide whether they believe Davis can maintain his 2020 or season or if it will prove to be an outlier compared to the rest of his career. Prior to averaging 70.3 yards per game in 2020, Davis averaged just 40.1 yards per game in 2019 and 44.5 yards per game over his first three seasons. He had only six touchdowns over his first three seasons (42 games) before scoring five in 2020 (14 games). To Davis’ credit, he was still efficient on a per-target basis in 2019 even if not at the caliber he was in 2020. In 2019, Davis averaged 8.7 yards per target and pulled in a conversion on 47.8% of his targets (the 2020 WR averages were 8.2 and 41.0%). Those marks aren’t even close to his 10.7 yards per target and 53.3% conversion rate in 2020, but they’re still very good. Davis simply didn’t draw many targets prior to 2020. In 2019, he was targeted just 69 times in 15 games (4.6 per game). His average of one target every 6.0 routes run ranked 63rd out of 79 qualified wide receivers (21st percentile), contributing to him averaging a below-average 1.48 yards per route run (2020 average was 1.56). Was Davis not getting targets because he couldn’t separate consistently or did the Titans just not feature him enough? Teams will be studying every rep of the tape closely to figure that out. Screen game Davis’ elusiveness stands out in the middle of the field, but he isn’t a formidable threat on designed screen plays. Over the course of his career, he has been targeted on 20 passes behind the line of scrimmage and produced just 81 yards (4.1 per target) and two first downs (10.0%). In 2020, he caught just one pass behind the line of scrimmage for one yard. Product of system? The Titans became an absolute juggernaut offensively over the past two seasons, spitting out absurdly efficient production in both phases like it was nothing. Left and right, players across the offense began to hit heights that they never had before. How much of Davis’ outburst was his own doing and how much of it was the product of playing alongside A.J. Brown, under Arthur Smith, and in an offense that set up the passing game beautifully with a dominant Derrick Henry-led run game? It’s always smart to take a bit of pause when considering the outlook of a player who comes from an extremely fruitful environment. Will they be able to maintain the same level of production in less favorable conditions? Clashing skillset with Denzel Mims? In 2020, Davis and Denzel Mims lined up outside (rather than in the slot) on nearly the exact same percentage of their routes run, with Davis at 75.4% and Mims at 75.0%. They have almost identical frames (Davis stands six-foot-three and 209 pounds while Mims stands six-foot-three and 215 pounds) and both do their best work in the intermediate range, as both players led their team’s wide receivers in PFF’s receiving grade on intermediate passes. Would Davis and Mims be a bit redundant? Other notes Drops Davis has respectable hands with a 5.9% career drop rate that falls a tad below the 2020 league average of 6.8%. Deep game The deep game isn’t Davis’ bread-and-butter, but he has generally come through when targeted, catching 6-of-12 deep passes (20+ yards downfield) for 229 yards and two touchdowns in 2020. The total of six catches ranked 35th among wide receivers, but the 50.0% catch rate tied for 13th-best out of 70 qualifiers. Davis was also strong as a deep target in 2018, grabbing 8-of-13 deep passes (61.5%) for 238 yards and two touchdowns. That 61.5% catch rate ranked fourth-best among qualifiers. However, sandwiched between 2018 and 2020, Davis had a 2019 season where he did not catch a single one of his 11 deep targets. In fairness to Davis, none of those targets were credited as drops, so that atrocious result likely has a lot to do with the accuracy of the passes. Contract estimate Spotrac estimates Davis’ market value at $9.8 million per year, but I’m not so sure about that one. The four players used by Spotrac as comparisons to concoct that number are Robby Anderson, Tyler Boyd, Adam Humphries, and Sammy Watkins. Boyd is the only member of the four who was comparably good to Davis in the year prior to signing his new deal, and he fetched a four-year pact worth $43 million ($10.8M per year) with $17.3 million guaranteed. Perhaps that’s a better starting point for Davis. Boyd’s 2018 season prior to signing that deal with the Bengals was similar to Davis’ 2020. Boyd 2018 (24 years old): 73.4 yards per game, 9.7 yards per target, conversion on 50.0% of targets, 84.5 PFF grade Davis 2020 (25 years old): 70.3 yards per game, 10.7 yards per target, conversion on 53.3% of targets, 86.9 PFF grade Boyd’s average annual value of $10.8 million currently has him placed 22nd among wide receivers. That seems like a fair starting point for Davis. He could soar far beyond that point if the demand for his services is high enough, but at the bare minimum, it seems fair to expect Davis to earn at least $10-11 million per year. Projecting Jets’ pursuit It will be very interesting to see how aggressively the Jets pursue the wide receiver position in free agency. There are quite a few great options on the market, like Davis, but the Jets do already have two intriguing starters on their roster in Jamison Crowder and Denzel Mims while the draft offers a deep class. Perhaps the Jets will focus first and foremost on the interior offensive line and the edge spots, spending more carefully on the wide receiver position in free agency. Davis had a marvelous 2020 season, but his one-year-wonder status and possible redundancy alongside Mims are two concerns that could scare away the Jets. My gut instinct is that Davis is not someone who Joe Douglas would feel comfortable about offering an expensive contract to, primarily for those two reasons. But, who knows? Douglas plays his cards close to the vest. Maybe Davis is exactly his cup of tea. In just a few more days, we’ll find out for sure.
