It has nothing to do with fear, lack of higher goals, insecurity or being hypocritical, it has to do with dealing with facts rather than assumptions. Applying a bunch of insults to someone who deals with facts rather than assumptions doesn't make your argument any more sound. You're assuming the Ravens and Jets will be battling for a bye. While that appears to be the case right now, it is an assumption.
except rooting for the Fins to lose just in case they play better the rest of the season is more of an assumption than simply projecting how they have played up to this point onto the rest of the season. I never insulted anyone until the failure to grasp that had people insulting me. here are the facts I am dealing with: Jets are 6-2, Ravens are 6-2, Dolphins are 4-4. how do we project how the season will finish with any semblance of reason? you project that pace to the rest of the season -- that is dealing with facts. Jets and Ravens then finish 12-4 each and the Jets have no chance to win a tie breaker against them for any home field advantage. if this occurs, and it is reasonable to expect, the Jets beat the Dolphins but finish behind the Ravens. it is lose-win. now, had the Fins won, they would have been 5-3, the Ravens 5-3 and the Jets 6-2. that reasonably project to the Jets 12-4, and the Ravens and Fins both 10-6. had this occurred, despite the Fins win the Jets finish ahead of both the Fins and Ravens. it is win-win. that is the most desirable outcome. how anyone can claim that the lose-win scenario is a better outcome and thus more desirable than the win-win scenario is ludicrous. this is how the season appears to be shaping up by simple projections based on facts, and any deviation from that is speculation and a greater assumption than I have utilized because it is based on nothing. thus your argument is the greatest assumption possible so it is ludicrous to attempt to minimize a reasonable projection based on known information as an assumption.
I agree with JetBlue. We control our own destiny as far as tiebreakers to the Fins and Pats go, so as fans we should be looking up to a #1 or #2 seed, and for that we need the Ravens to lose.
No one is assuming they'll play better. The problem is that once you start projecting what you think there record will be you get into making predictions and predictions on how the NFL season will play out are generally wrong. The fact is we need to finish with a better record than them to win the division. Whether the Ravens have any impact on the Jets season is unknown, and suggesting they do is nothing more than an error prone prediction. Now I know you'll point at the winless bills again, but it's OK to be reasonable and ignore them at this point. You are mixing predictions in with facts. It's the most desirable if you assume the Ravens will be contending with the Jets for a bye. You assume it's lose-win, making that assumption is as flawed as a monkey predicting the results of NFL games. I would argue that it's more ludicrous to assume your predictions will come true.
we are both dealing with predictions, so if that is flawed so is your position. you are criticizing my position based on the very criteria you are using to support yours. as I have pointed out, that is hypocritical. my using the Bills as an example doesn't disguise your hypocrisy. I am using facts in conjunction with the prediction. you are using speculation in conjunction with prediction. so, of the two of us, as I pointed out, only my prediction utilizes facts and you attempted to claim it was simply assumptions. your speculation is the assumption.
What assumption am I making? That the Bills aren't a factor? OK, I'm making an assumption that an 0-7 team is not going to win the division. Show me an instance in the history of the NFL where an 0-7 team has won there division. I'll show you plenty of 4-3 teams that did so. I'll also show you plenty of 5-2 and 6-2 teams that didn't have a bye. This is really simple, but you're trying to make it convoluted to try and sound correct. You want to argue based on something you think will be true. I am arguing something that is a fact. That's what it comes down to. The basis of your argument at this point is that I have to look at a 4-3 team exactly the same as a 0-7 team. If you don't see the problem with that, it's your problem.
Maybe this will make you feel better. Had you used your elaborate, complex formula of doubling the wins at the halfway point last season, here are the results you would have come up with for a few teams. Pittsburg - 6 wins x2 = 12 wins. Actual wins, 9 Chargers - 5 wins x 2 = 10 wins. Actual wins 13 Patriots - 6 wins x2= 12 wins. Actual wins 10 Bengals - 6 wins x2= 12 wins actual wins 10 Miami - 3 wins x 2 = 6 wins. Actual wins, 7 Jets - 4 wins x2 = 8 wins. Actual wins, 9 Ravens - 4 wins x2= 8 wins. Actual wns 9 These were not selective results either-- first 7 teams I picked. Not one projected accuratly.
no, you failed to grasp the point entirely, which isn't surprising. the point was that you can evaluate a team's threat by their record, not simply by the fact that they are in the division, which was what you were claiming, and once you do you can determine whether a team in your division can win and still not be of great concern, which was my position. you did exactly what I claimed you can do, and are now attempting to use it to dispute that identical claim. you can't be serious. and just as you can determine a 0-7 team isn't of tremendous concern, you can determine a 5-3 team is as well. but you still haven't argued a single fact. what fact are you arguing? the only fact is that even had the Fins won they would still be behind the Jets, but because they lost the Jets are still behind the Ravens. that's all that matters.
so your point is any prediction is worthless. than what is the point of this thread at all, which is dependent upon some level of prediction to determine whether an outcome is valuable towards the end of the season or not. the value of the prediction is the reason that is utilized to make it, not that it is going to be 100% accurate. of course, I won't even go into whether the differences in the prediction and outcome are statistically significant, which would obviously simply go over anyone's heads in here.
lol. Fact: The Jets will need to beat out the Dolphins to win the division. Error Prone Prediction: The Jets will need to beat out the Ravens to obtain a bye. History tells us the 0-7 team is of no concern. History tells us the 5-3 team is. Please carry on making your case that my saying an 0-7 team isn't a threat is the same thing as saying a 5-3 team isn't a threat. I find it very amusing.
what basis are you using to determine the Fins could finish ahead of the Jets that has any empirical merit? if it is based on nothing, which it isn't, your entire argument is worth nothing. so define the basis of your argument.
how is the fact that the Jets will need to be out the Ravens an error prone position. that is as much a fact as the Jets need to beat the Fins to win the Division. but an equal fact is the Jets need to beat the Bills to win the division, but that doesn't mean that a Bills win has a greater negative effect on the potential outcome of the season for the Jets than a Ravens loss. I've never made that claim that an 0-7 team is the same as a 5-3 team, just a different degree. again, your need to simplify that argument to address it only reveals your own inability to argue a scenario with any semblance of complexity.
I'm pretty sure the basis of his argument is shit happens in the NFL and that it would be better to assure yourself a playoff spot by eliminating the teams in the division first because they are a direct threat to the Jets playoff spot.
Prior to this week the Fins were 1.5 game behind the Jets in the standings with a game still against them and 9 games left. It's not at all unreasonable that they could have a better record over the final 9 games of the season than the Jets. This is the NFL. Things change quickly. Because you're predicting the Jets and Ravens will be fighting for the bye. Just multiply the wins by 2 and you can see that's what will happen. There's nothing error prone about that. This is how the NFL works, you have 4 teams per division. Each division sends a team to the playoffs. The team with the best record in each division earns that right. The Dolphins are in our division, therefore we have to have a better record than them to win the division. Why do I need to explain this to you? You have been saying that my argument is hypocritical because I make the claim that an 0-7 team is irrelevant while a 5-3 team is. Have you not?
which would then make any prediction meaningless. so you can't defend one and criticize another based on simply being a prediction. but if we are going to discuss predictions, then the criteria used to make it is what is meaningful and has to have empirical merit. current record as an indicator has empirical merit. the "anything can happen" argument makes any prediction meaningless, including predicting that a Dolphin loss this week is meaningful because no outcome can have a value until the season concludes and we find out the results of anything happening. no, I used the 0-7 team to dispute the argument that divisional opponent losses are always more meaningful than non-divisional opponent losses, which was what was being claimed.
You're ridiculous. Any reasonable person would find it perfectly acceptable to throw out an 0-7 team from a divisional race. Likewise, most reasonable people would never count a team 1.5 games out of the divisional race out of the picture with 9 remaining games. Clearly your intent is to argue the semantics of the argument rather than the actual factors involved. You know exactly what I'm saying but refuse to acknowledge it. You win, I'll be rooting for the Patriots to beat the Steelers this weekend. I'm pretty confident we're going to beat them and we have a 3-0 division record already. Most people can see that the Steelers are clearly the bigger threat.
just like any reasonable person can see a game in which both teams are tied with the Jets, like the Pats and Steelers, and neither outcome has a significantly different effect on the Jets, is far different than a game in which if the Dolphins win they will still trail the Jets because of the current tie breakers but if they lose the Jets will still trail the Ravens. yet you attempt to claim that they are the same. that is beyond ridiculous, that is just sad.
The Jets will be battling with the Ravens and Steelers for a bye come week 17, that is easy to project. Don't let the fact that you're lacking confidence in the Jets beating the Patriots get in the way of that.
