Personally, as good as Lamb and Ruggs are, I think Jeudy is the only one who is "too good to pass up" if we have an OT or him available. Otherwise, I've actually been more impressed with some of the 2nd and 3rd round prospects. Chase Claypool looks like he's going to be a matchup nightmare, and he'll probably be available in the 2nd round.
Totally agree on the first part of your post. However, I have to admit , if we don't take an OT or WR in the first and second round, I will lose my shit. I trust Joe D knows more than I do, but I still will lose it. Honestly I think our first 3 picks should be all offense. We are destitute of o-lineman and playmakers. Not to mention we probably need a RB. I love Leveon from an attitude and character perspective but I think he has lost his legs. I saw absolutely ZERO burst from last year. There was several times he had daylight and he could just not get it into that next gear.
Are you implying that by choosing a WR at number #11 they'll be plug and play? If so I totally disagree. Most WR's take time to digest an NFL offense, expand the rout tree and more importantly, develop rapport with the QB. Most of the Rookie WR's will end up being situational matchups at first. Once they start to DEVELOP, you see their role increase. Or major injuries! D.K. Metcalf, AJ Brown, Terry McLaurin and Deebo are prime examples last year. All came on late. It would be nice if we had a veteran presence again like D. Thomas.
Daily News said today that if all 4 lineman are gone by 11 and most WRs are still on the board, JoeD will trade down 4 spots to 15 to gain another high 3rd round draft pick. At that point (15), the best DB might look better than the 3rd or 4th WR.
Would not be a fan of this at all. Take the future all pro WR at 11 if one of the two of them are there.
All of those guys made immediate impacts, especially Metcalf. Of course they progressed as the year went on but they helped their teams immensely in their rookie seasons. Odell Beckham had immediate impact his rookie year, Keyshawn Johnson had immediate impact. It's not unheard of. And yes, we should and probably will resign D Thomas as long as he is still healthy. I liked the way he contributed last season.
I agree with most of your post, and even agree that Douglas may surprise us all and take someone NOT an OL or WR, but if he takes a CB I will immediately question his football intelligence and that may well finally end my Jets fan career. Yes, we could use CB help, but CB is not in any major sense, a key position like QB, WR, OT, Edge is. These are positions that are almost impossible to fill outside of drafting. Even if one becomes a FA their cost to value is way out of line. CBs aren't even as critical as Safeties, and Safeties aren't critical either. Moreover, this team has used its first pick on defense NINE out of the last ten drafts, and where has that got them? The NFL is an offensive league! If Douglas doesn't understand this basic fact, then the Jets are fucked.
someone on the reddit ran the numbers already on why we should go OT and not WR in the 1st https://old.reddit.com/r/nyjets/comments/frz14l/ol_versus_wr_rounds_13_by_the_numbers/
WOW! Great analysis! This is one of those few times I agree with you G&D, but this really nailed it. I've been leaning much more towards OT at 11, but this cements it.
I just posted in the draft section about why Douglas might not go for an OT in the draft. Basically he has found some great talent along the offensive line after the 3rd round.
80% in the first. That 20% failure rate must be the Jets offensive lineman picks. If Maccagnan would have followed that script he would still be the Jets GM.
I think Joe Douglas will choose players that have a certain "hate to lose" attitude, like he said he would do. So interviews and references will be important.
This is interesting, although one thing I will point out is that the OP himself admits that the hits and tiers are subjective and of his own ranking. The issue I find here is that percentages do not take into account the impact in-game that the players have. Does Jack Conklin have as much impact on a game as Julio Jones? Does Riley Reiff have as much impact on a game as Calvin Johnson did? I don’t disagree that tackle is the safer option. I do believe the WR talent where we will be selecting will be the more impactful talent. It’s not that I don’t understand the argument, it’s just a risk I’d rather take depending on how the board falls.
This goes both ways, as there are positive impacts and negative impacts: If the Jets don't have a quality #1 WR, Sam throws the ball away more. If the Jets don't have a quality #1 LT, Sam gets his head smashed in more.
"The issue I find here is that percentages do not take into account the noticeable impact in-game that the players have. Does Jack Conklin have as much noticeable impact on a game as Julio Jones? Does Riley Reiff have as much noticeable impact on a game as Calvin Johnson did? Per my highlighted amendments to your post, I think the issue is what is more noticeable? Sure, Julio Jones or Calvin Johnson may have a highlight reel play or two a game, but if Conklin or Reiff weren't doing their mostly unseen jobs in the trenches, would those highlight reel moments happen? From watching the Jets QBs run for their lives and barely ever have time to make a big play on script, I think they're in much greater need of some competent OL play. And I say that as someone who has beaten the drum for years about the Jets needing to focus more on getting skill players added. I've long chastised the Jets for failing Sanchez - more than Sanchez failing the Jets - by allowing the skill talent around him to leave and not replacing it, so I fully know the value of a great WR (or RB). But it all starts with the OL, something that has been ignored for over a decade, and we can see the proof in their record.
I am no longer able to be an active voice on this forum due to my current position. That said I still do read posts & felt compelled by this thread as well as this post to respond. I'm not here to tell anyone they are wrong for wanting one position over another or anything of that sort. Both OT as well as WR are in need of major infusions of talent. That said I take major issue with this research as well as some of the conclusions the author reaches. The Draft is not an exact science. Some people call it a crap shoot & it's not really that either. It's an art form. You simply cannot take an all encompassing view of really any individual position group let alone comparing the validity or hit rate of different position groups. There are way too many moving parts & variables. The part that really bothers me & I've seen it quite often is this justification of going OL with the idea that we don't need great skill talent & can "Get by" w. average WRs. We shouldn't be striving to be complacent with average talent at ANY position group let alone a position we've had D level talent for the better part of 15 years. I have to wonder where this concept even comes from. Is it simply blinding bias toward OL? Is it some sort of underdog syndrome where Jet fans think we can only win with Blue Collar ugly ball? Whatever it is,it's wrong. The Jets should be striving to draft the best talent at EVERY position. Winning up front only goes so far with the modern rules. Remember the Pennington & even part of the Sanchez era when we had great O-lines but would constantly see 9-10 defensive fronts w. no solution b.c of below average talent on the boundary? If you really think about it, outside of 1 year w. Decker/Marshall the situation has really never been solved. The last few years the OL has deteriorated immensely, but lets be clear the team's longest standing weakness is WR/dynamic skill. In my mind until this addressed head on...not through FA...through the draft...it will continue to hold this team back from legitimacy. We've seen 2 full OL rebuilds since the last time the Jets took a WR in round 1;Santana Moss. Let that sink in. Secondly, if the idea is to take the safest route possible in round 1...I again have to disagree with the conclusions reached. Assuming the off the field checks out Jeudy/Lamb are far safer bets than ANY of the OL prospects. They have the production/Pedigree/Athleticism/size that give them very high floors. Whether they are superstars or not remains to be seen but both will absolutely find meaningful roles early in an NFL offense. None of the 4 OT's are safe picks. Every single one of them have question marks,BIG question marks to their game. That doesn't mean they aren't good prospects, but I would not call any of them safe compared to the top 2 WRs. Just something to keep in mind. JD is utilizing the Chris Ballard method of fixing the OL. Using FA & the draft Quantity over quality scheme fits w. starting experience & upside. Let them duke it out in TC/Preseason & the best 5 start. Worked for Indy & worked for Buffalo last year. Now Indy took Nelson top 10 when they utilized this method while Buffalo went heavy on day 2 which worked well. After already signing 5 FA's up front to go along w. Edoga,Harrison & Winters there is some flexibility. Going OL on day 2 would not be the end of the world. More of the Tier 2 guys fit the outside zone scheme Gase wants than tier 1 if we are being honest. They could easily take a WR round 1 & double or even triple up on OL on day 2 & be in very good shape. Even a meat & Potatoes GM like JD understands that outside of elite QB/2 way strong side DE that ELITE skill trumps all. We can debate if OT is included in that. But that said..I don't think any of these OT prospects are elite anyway. They are more top 10-top 15 types than so top 5 grade wise. Bottom line is instant offense & a dynamic presence is irreplaceable. You can piece together a good OL. The Patriots have done it for 2 decades. The Steelers do a great job of maintaining a strong OL using mostly mid round picks. And See the Chris Ballard method above. Still, I do think there is absolutely merit to going OL round 1 & getting protection squared away. It just depends on which OTs are available at 11 & if JD feels Lamb/Jeudy fit into that truly "Elite" classification. I'd stay away from Thomas & Wills all together. They aren't scheme fits & there are holes in their game. The giants will like both for their Prototype anyway. If we do go OT in round 1 we better damn well prioritize a WR on day 2. 2nd round. Not Edge. Not CB. Not a 25 year old small school DT. We cannot afford to have 2014 happen again where there's a run on the 2nd tier of WR's before our pick b.c every single team knows the Jets need boundary help which leads to Shaq Evans & Jalen Saunders. And they better damn well be better than average players. No more striving for 2nd rate WR's as some sort of gimmicky formula to justify going OL & defense. Sam Needs play makers to grow with.NOT "good enough" We risk fielding the worst WR corps in the NFL for yet another season. That would be absolutely unacceptable. Wishing everyone well. Stay safe & healthy.
I think of it this way: I think the Jets have a better chance of winning with Sam Darnold attempting passes to Jamison Crowder than they do with David Fales attempting passes to Jerry Jeudy. Therefore, I recommend selecting an LT so Sam can keep slinging the rock.
i mean i've been saying it forever but people don't listen. glad a random 3rd party person actually did the numbers
