This. The top end talent in this draft is rich, and while I think Lee, Watkins, and Evans are all top 15 talents and think one of them falls to us, if they don't I would hope they would pick up a stud safety or rush OLB. You can find serious value in the 2nd and 3rd rounds at WR.
Only Clowney, Barr and Mack are top 15 type talents that would play outside in our defense. I don't see any of them being around at the point we will draft. There is no Safety worthy of a pick that high this year. Hell, I would be hard pressed to mock any of them in the first round. Its not a strong safety class IMO. We should very well end up with a WR or TE in the first that is able to make the difference though. We could very well end up drafting something like TE-WR or WR-WR with our first two picks. The talent is there in this class.
Sorry, but I disagree with your conclusion. Drafting a WR is not necessarily a mistake. Just because they may take a year or two to develop doesn't make them a mistake. The only way to get a stud WR prospect is to draft him early. Sometimes teams get lucky with late round WRs or UDFAs, but not very often. You don't draft players just for their 1st season, but rather for the entirety of their careers. QBs can take a few years to develop as can players at any position. Does that mean we should just trade away our draft picks every year for proven veterans? Sorry, but with all due respect, that would be dumb and impossible to field a team due to the cap. Topflight WRs just don't become available in FA unless they have injury histories, serious off-field issues, or are older and want too much money. We've seen this year what it's like to have a roster of low-round and UDFA WRs. No thanks.
I couldn't possibly disagree more. The 1st round is for OL? I'm glad you're not the GM. You'd have an overpaid OL and no or mediocre playmakers. That happened to the Jets just a few years ago.
So what do you propose we do? Go into next season with the same shlubs we have now? It's real easy to use statistics about rookie receivers in one of the worst receiver draft class in recent history. Lets skip out on getting a good receiver prospect. One needs to be taken within the first three rounds. Give me Jordan Matthews in the 2nd, even in the 1st. This team needs playmakers badly, it's astounding we don't have the worst offense in the league right now considering teams can generally leave every single receiver in single coverage. I-form? Throw 9 in the box against us because we have no vertical threat. Spread em out? Hawk Kerley over the middle and no one else will be open.
Well this was regarding a hypothetical with the big 3 WR's being taken and someone--specifically Barr or Mack (who will most likely be gone anyway)--being available. It's much more likely that one of the big 3 WRs fall to us than either of those two. The only safety I've heard any buzz about is Clinton-Dix, who will probably be a top 20 pick, but there's most likely going to be a better option at our pick.
There are also some really talented TE's in this draft as well, I'm a big fan of Eric Ebron. Depending on where we pick that could be a direction to go in the 1st round. Jace Amaro should he declare could also be a high pick with ton of potential.
Not drafting a Wr or TE in the first round won't be a quick fix for the offense, but it might be the kiss of death. This team needs playmakers and it also needs to change it's mindset to being offense centric. If the Jets (REX) bypasses the offense early and often, the offense will most likely look the same in '14 and we know what a juggernaut MM dialed up in '13.
I hear ya. I see Dix as the best safety in this class, but more of a day two talent. He could crash the first night if someone really needs a safety and sees him as a potential pro bowl type talent, but I don't see that level of skill there. he is a early to mid second round guy in my mind. There is no game changing talent at the position this year.
No, no, NO! We need football players. Vlad, Hill, Vern, Drob.. No more " workout warriors" or perceived superior athletes that can't block, catch, cognitively "get it", or guys that score well in Indy. Give me a proven player with good work ethic and smarts every day over the superior athlete. EVERY DAY
Wow, I am shocked so many fans want to draft a WR in the first round. I am not a big fan of drafting them that high, as I believe there are other positions that are just more important in terms of their effect on every play AND that you can pretty much always get decent receivers in later rounds. If you consider the effect true dominant receivers had in the NFL on their teams contending for a championship, it's not very impressive, in my opinion. Calvin Johnson is as great as they come, but what have the Lions done with him? Not much. Andre Johnson in Houston? Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona, other than that one superbowl appearance which they lost, the team has mostly been terrible. Randy Moss, another all time great, did not have team success at all until the short New England stint, and obviously Pats were good even without him. Chris Carter? Terrell Owens? Our own former number one pick, Keyshawn Johnson? We've had undrafted free agents and late round picks with more impact on the team. On the other hand, if you look at teams that actually win or constantly contend for championships lately, they usually have a core of solid, productive wire receivers, but not the kind of dominant monsters mentioned in the previous paragraph. WRs like Deion Branch and Troy Brown in New England, Cruz/Hicks/Manningham with the Giants, Jones/Boldin/Smith in Baltimore, Marquis Colston and whoever else plays for the Saints, Packers or Colts receivers when they won, etc. You can pick those types of players in later rounds, I don't think you want to burn a first round pick on them. First round should be spent on truly dominant players, and there are more important positions than WR in terms of team success. In our case, I am of the firm opinion that we should spend the first round pick on a quarterback if a good first round talent is still available by the time we pick. It seems like with Geno's improvement in play the last few games, a lot of people have accepted him being the quarterback next year, even though those last few games were in a lot of way the equivalent of garbagetime, came against mostly bad teams, and he still managed to turn it over when the season was truly on the line (the pick six against Carolina). And when he played well, it wasn't like he was throwing lasers into tight windows, he was just hitting wide open receivers, which is something that's not gonna happen in tough playoff games very often. I am not saying we should give up on him, but I am tired of the last several years where we just let Sanchez or Geno start no matter how badly they play. Let's draft a good quarterback, and then they can compete with Geno next year, and whoever is better will start, and the other guy can sit on the bench and learn. This is a good investment in any case, as in the modern NFL, without a good QB, you got nothing anyway. And you need a good backup in case of injuries, etc. If all the first round qbs are gone by the time we pick, I would consider a dominant Left Tackle (Ferguson looks done and its a very important position), and after that BPA among (secondary, WR, OLB, TE).
If you can't find really good WR's later in the draft you have to start looking in the 1st round. Ideally you do find your receivers in later rounds but if you haven't been able to do that effectively then you need to spend real value to get them. A modern NFL offense cannot prosper without have several playmakers outside. You have to make defenses account for the outside guys or they'll jam up the middle on you and that's where most games are won, from the line of scrimmage to +7 and between the numbers. If you can find a Marques Colston or Antonio Brown or Brandon Marshall later in the draft more power to you but if you can't you need to go looking in the 1st round eventually.
I agree with your post that it takes 2-3 years for receiver to develop. Which is why I would advocate signing A FA WR, drafting a WR for the future and a TE. That would leave us with the FA as our #1, Kerley as the #3 slot WR and Hill and the rookie to compete for the #2 and #4. We would then have Nelson, Gates, Salas and whoever else competing for the #5 spot. It is not beyond reason that Hill develops next year. He played almost the entire year injured as well as a good deal of 2012. He cut down on his drops this year. The main problem with Hill is he does not locate the ball, which results in INTs like the one he caused against Tennessee and the one he may have caused against NE which essentially makes him untrustworthy limiting his role to just a deep threat. But given a full offseason with MM and Geno it is not beyond reason that Hill devlops. From all reports he is a hardworker and not a slacker.
I wouldn't hate it if the Jets went with either a QB or LT with their 1st round pick. Of course, I'd rather they be able to find Brick's replacement in the 2nd round, but that's not very likely, and I agree that he needs to be replaced sooner rather than later. Still, since QB is the most important position, and one can never have enough, if there's a QB there when the Jets pick in the first round and they really like him, I hope they'll grab him to try to insure that they have their QB of the future. In any event, they will need a backup for their starter, and if both Geno and the QB they draft develop, then they can possibly trade one or the other in a year or two for a #1 pick and maybe even an additional pick. If there isn't a QB or LT there, then there should be a WR. I think with a WR like Watkins, the kid from A&M (I've gone blank on his name), or Matthews, Geno would look a lot better next season. Should there not be a WR they think is worth the pick, then I'd hope that Ebron or Amaro is there and they like and take him. There isn't a single defensive player I'd consider over an offensive player in this draft. It could be an anomaly, but Clowney's play fell of a LOT this year. Mack might be intriguing, but they need some #1 picks on offense.
We need to move on from this less then average receiving core by any means necessary and we need to attack it aggressively. Sign a receiver and draft another, we need to get better at that position no matter how.
The teams that use a platoon system at the receiver position has a good QB in place. We need a receiver that defenses has to actually gameplan against.
It's true that drafting a WR is not a quick-fix for the offense. But it is the only realistic chance we have to get a really good one. You don't want to get the super high-priced ones in free agency because the risk-reward is not in your favor, and you can't squander your cap space with this many holes on the team. I think you bring in some mediocre receivers through free agency, keep Kerley and Nelson, and see if you can find a guy worthy of being drafted in the first or second rounds. Obviously you don't turn down the "best player available" but if it's a tie, take the receiver. That way, you can fix the entire receiving corps for under $10m and 1 early round draft pick (not necessarily make it good or great, but it will at least no longer be a weakness of the team. There no real way for us to go from a horrible receiving corps to a great one in one year, but we can go from horrible to decent, and that would have an enormously positive impact on the team.
Bolded the sentence that I think most of us can agree on. If Jets are on the board and they see 3-5 prospects at different positions with the similar grading then I'm sure most of would be delighted to see Idzik grab receiver prospect. Instead of anti-WR posts, I believe we have anti-"tunnel vision" posts. Or at least that's what my posts are meant to be. Don't want Idzik to determine 100% he's going WR in round one no matter how the draft plays out. As to your points on avoiding the big $$ on FA WR, I think it's a little more complicated. Next year's QB is likely year-2-Geno, or another rookie QB. Developing WR and QB prospects simultaneously is really difficult. Inexperienced QB will need WR to bail him out sometimes but rookie WR are still adjusting to the NFL and struggling to just "fit". That's why I think a legit veteran #1 or #2 WR is mandatory. When inexperienced QB is confused at the D or the game is moving too fast this particular play, he needs a safety valve. Somebody he can have blind faith to either catch the ball or prevent it from being intercepted. Doesn't need it permanently but at least for the first year (perhaps two). These guys will definitely cost $$$. Jets don't need somebody elite but if they have a chance to grab a top 20 WR they should jump on it. There's a lot of cap space next year. Maybe Idzik finds a way to take advantage of it and front load contract to WR. That way two or three years from now, this top 20 WR isn't killing salary cap.
