Draft Strategy - Trading Partners

Discussion in 'Draft' started by James Hasty, Mar 28, 2020.

  1. James Hasty

    James Hasty Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2003
    Messages:
    13,879
    Likes Received:
    2,858
    Staying put at pick # 11 would most likely have us drafting one of the following six players:

    Jerry Jeudy WR
    CeeDee Lamb WR
    Andrew Thomas OT
    Tristan Wirfs OT
    Jedrick Willis OT
    Mekhi Becton OT


    I think the odds of Joe Douglas trading up would be slim. The following players would be potential trade up targets (zero percent chance any of them is there at pick # 11:

    Chase Young OLB ( Personally I would give all of our draft picks if we could add him)
    Jeff Okudah CB (Revis the sequel?)


    There is also the possibility that we trade up a spot or two for one of the other six players I listed earlier (we do have two third round picks).

    I think it is also unlikely that we pick any of the following players (keep in mind that we may find trading partners for these players if they do fall to # 11):

    Joe Borrow QB - won't fall to # 11
    Tuo Tagoviola QB - unlikely to fall to # 11
    Justin Herbert QB - may or not be there at # 11
    Isaiah Simmons ILB- may or not be there at # 11
    D'Andre Swift RB - likely to be there at # 11 (with Le'Veon Bell's dead cap space would we really pick this guy?)
    Javon Kinlaw DT - may or not be there at # 11 (If we draft another DT in round one I will smash my TV)

    If we do trade down, many of the above players could be the bait that tempts another team to give us multiple players or picks. Looking at the five teams below us and their potential targets we can not only guess about who might want pick # 11 but who they need to leapfrog to avoid missing out on that player:

    Raiders - Jerry Jeudy seems like a lock here unless they prefer CeeDee Lamb
    49ers - These guys just went to the SB. My guess is that they take BPA as long as it isn't a QB. With Sanders gone they might want to leapfrog the Raiders to get a QB. With their roster perhaps we want a player instead of a draft pick if we swap picks with them.
    Bucs - Look for them to draft offense. They will give Brady whatever they think he needs
    Broncos - Another team that could use a dominant receiver. Perhaps they will stick it to their division rival by moving up a few spots.
    Falcons - They could go a few directions with this pick but after adding Gurley it seems that QB and RB are not on their radar.

    So with this knowledge, how can we better our situation?
     
    boozer32 likes this.
  2. BomberJet

    BomberJet Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2002
    Messages:
    1,894
    Likes Received:
    884
    My guess is if either Lamb or Jeudy is there at 11 ( one of them being already taken) they'll be quite a number of teams salivating with the idea of giving the Jets a call and making some offers to trade to their spot. Don't rule out the Broncos either - they're looking to build a supporting cast around Drew Lock and being at #15 Jeudy and Lamb will be long gone.
     
    boozer32 likes this.
  3. 101GangGreen101

    101GangGreen101 2018 Thread of the Year Award Winner

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    22,026
    Likes Received:
    12,016
    Jets and 49ers could trade spots (11,13). I would ask for their 31st as well. Jets would give up their 2nd.

    13 - Josh Jones
    31 - Denzel Mims
     
  4. jcass10

    jcass10 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2011
    Messages:
    2,266
    Likes Received:
    1,194
    I'm definitely in the trade down camp because the Jets just need talented bodies, but I could also easily see a trade up.

    I know its not concrete or anything, but going by the draft value chart, the Jets could trade 11+79+120 to Carolina for 7+113. This way, you jump Arizona, Cleveland and Jacksonville, who have all been mocked to take OL, and the Jets can get their first or second choice.

    I dont think its the move I would make, but if you think there is a franchise LT available, I could definitely be convinced to part with a 3rd rounder.
     
  5. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2013
    Messages:
    22,661
    Likes Received:
    14,599
    I don't understand some of you guys thinking Douglas will trade up. Ozzie Newsome didn't do it and Douglas is a Newsome disciple. To them, it's all about value. Neither goes after big name, flashy signings in FA, and they don't fall in love with players.

    This is Douglas' first draft where he is calling all the shots. He knows how many holes the Jets have and wants to make his mark on the team. I'm certain that he wants more picks, not less. He believes in his ability to find very good players that fit what he's looking for for the team in terms of ability, attitude, work ethic, character, etc. in every round of the draft. Why would he go against his belief in getting value for picks, and doubt his ability to find excellent players in the draft, by trading up? That just makes no sense to me at all. I think you guys are thinking what YOU would do and projecting that onto Douglas. I've seen/heard nothing about him that would even remotely suggest that he is likely to trade up. I could be wrong, and he could do it, but I would be shocked. It just doesn't fit with the way that he is said to go about things or fit with his core beliefs in how to build a team.
     
    #5 NCJetsfan, Apr 1, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2020
    Darnasty and boozer32 like this.
  6. boozer32

    boozer32 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2006
    Messages:
    4,246
    Likes Received:
    2,737
    Jets shouldn't have to give up anything
     
  7. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2013
    Messages:
    22,661
    Likes Received:
    14,599
    If we were just trading down, 2 spots, no, but moving up from pick 48 to pick 31 is a huge move up. Instead of the Niners having to give us a pick or picks, they would just swap their #31 pick for our #48 pick. I doubt they'd take that trade, but I would if the Niners offered it to me. Jones and Mims is probably better than we'll be able to do at #11 and #48.
     
    MoWilkBeast likes this.
  8. 101GangGreen101

    101GangGreen101 2018 Thread of the Year Award Winner

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    22,026
    Likes Received:
    12,016
    And the 49ers should they covet a specific receiver can get him without hitting the panic button.
     
    NCJetsfan likes this.
  9. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2004
    Messages:
    30,678
    Likes Received:
    7,201
    I see so many scenarios that favor the Jets at #11 that I think the question is mainly how best to profit from an abundant draft filled with things the Jets need.

    One common way to look at it is that there are 4 OT's and 2 WR's that look like very good value at #11 and so the odds are that one of these guys drops to the Jets. However if none of them drop to the Jets that means it is very likely that a top 8 player at another position has made the fall to #11. In that situation the Jets are very likely to be able to trade back for extra picks to continue the rebuild.

    If Okudah is sitting there he is very likely to draw multiple pick offers from contenders who want a plug and play CB. If Simmons drops, he's going to have suitors as well. Any of the top 3 QB's that falls through to #11 will be an opportunity at a trade down. That's 11 players and the Jets are in business if any of them fall, the OT's and WR's as picks and the other guys as good chances to bulk up the number of draft picks in this rebuilding draft. Oh yeah, we didn't even mention Chase Young and Derrick Brown who are likely to go in the top 4 or 5 picks overall, making 13 value slots in the 10 picks before the Jets are on the board.

    If the Jets could get a mid-1st and a mid-2nd for the #11 that sets us up with 5 picks in the top 79 and in this draft that's pure gold.
     
    Cman65, MoWilkBeast and NCJetsfan like this.
  10. HerndonFan

    HerndonFan 2018 ROTY Poster Award Winner

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2018
    Messages:
    3,617
    Likes Received:
    4,962
    If a QB needy team calls the Jets at pick 11, I'd demand a 2021 1st or 2nd in addition to the additional ammo for this year.
     
    amuck57, J-Raw24 and NCJetsfan like this.
  11. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2004
    Messages:
    30,678
    Likes Received:
    7,201
    I'd just take the trade down they offered if it gave the Jets a couple of quality picks. It's not like the Jets can actually *take* the QB if they say no.
     
  12. boozer32

    boozer32 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2006
    Messages:
    4,246
    Likes Received:
    2,737
    Not for the 49ers. Their team is stacked and not alot of open spots. The Jets shouldn't be moving back unless they get a bunch of picks. They are nowhere near that point and this draft seems to be loaded.
     
  13. themorey

    themorey Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2008
    Messages:
    1,854
    Likes Received:
    1,314
    I could see TB wanting to move up if one of the 4 tackles are on the board. They need to bolster their OL to protect their new statue at QB.
     
  14. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2008
    Messages:
    22,558
    Likes Received:
    22,991
    Atlanta is interested in coming up. Could net a 3 and a 5 based on past trades of close value.
     
  15. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2013
    Messages:
    22,661
    Likes Received:
    14,599
    There's no way Douglas should accept that for moving down 5 spots. I suppose it may be fair value if the Jets moved down from 16 to 21, but not when they might have to pass up both an elite WR prospect (or prospects) and a very good OT prospect, both of which are glaring needs. The Jets need some topflight players on offense to help Sam. I wouldn't even trade down with Oakland. Trade down any further, and team(s) below that could trade up ahead of the Jets and get the player or players that the Jets were considering at that point in the draft. After this draft and next year's FA period, the Jets should have a lot better team, will be drafting lower and it will be harder to draft an elite prospect on the offensive side of the ball. IMO the Jets need to stay put and take that elite prospect this year.

    The ONLY way I'd consider moving down this year would be for a bevy of picks, that at a minimum would have to include a 2nd and 3rd round pick this year as well as that team's #1 or at least a 3rd and 4th this year, and their #1 pick next year, plus some additional picks.
     
  16. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2008
    Messages:
    22,558
    Likes Received:
    22,991
    We’re not getting a second third and next years first to move 5 spots. Also, this has to be assumed that the falcons are setting up the frame work in the event that someone they like is there. And joe is working it out in the event that his targets are gone. Without knowing how the board looks when joe is otc it’s hard to put it as a flat no.
     
    MoWilkBeast likes this.
  17. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2013
    Messages:
    22,661
    Likes Received:
    14,599
    I know that someone's not gonna give a 2nd and 3rd and next year's first to move up 5 spots unless several teams getting in a bidding war over a QB. I was just using that as an example to say that I'm not passing up the opportunity to draft an elite player for stinking 3rd & 5th round picks. Joe might if all the top 4 OTs are gone and he doesn't believe in taking a WR that high or thinks we have to have one of the OTs. I get that. We don't know what he has going on behind the scenes, but I believe that he has contingency plans in the works, or at least the foundation laid for them.

    If all 4 of the top OTs and Lamb and Jeudy are gone at #11, then I'd trade down to 16 for the 3rd and 5th, but that's the only scenario in which I'd do it. Joe may do something differently, and if so, fine, as long as the result turns out to be good.
     

Share This Page