No I’m not. Why do you think I recall that scenario so vividly? Because when it happened I was screaming it was a dumb fuck call — before the outcome. The outcome simply validated my argument and proved my position correct. Statistically, each and every play is an individual event, like a coin toss. So, just as after 100 coin flips you get 70 heads it doesn’t mean you have a 70% chance of getting heads when you flip a coin, so to the after the fact stats of previous plays doesn’t reveal the likelihood of success of the current play. The statistics simply show you the rate of success of those other plays. You are confusing using stats to make safe choices based on previous comparable examples versus making the smart choice based on the variables of your specific current situation. Choosing a play simply doesn’t equate to betting, so it’s not like saying that at all.
I'm a gigantic Rex supporter, but anyone who has read Collision Low Crossers knows he made too many dumb non-gameday mistakes to be a successful NFL head coach. Would he make those mistakes again if he ever got another head gig? I don't know, but I suspect he would. The guy is tailor-made to be a major college football head coach; it's where he belongs.
We definitely would have won a Super Bowl in 2009 or 2010 with Darnold. Sanchez was a bottom 3 starting quarterback both years. That just demonstrates how absurdly talented we were on both sides of the ball with the one exception of quarterback.
Yes it does. It didn't prove your position correct, nor if we would've won would it have proved your position wrong--it's not an indictment of your position in either direction. It's just hindsight, that's all it is, not used to prove anything one way or the other. I can't make it more simple, the FG was the right choice for us at that time in the game. It just was.
You agree that coaches should go for it on 4th and 1 from any position on the field and go for 2 every time on a conversion based on the statistical evidence correct?
Statistically yes. I think 4th and 1 is almost a gimme play. The 2 point conversion I don't know much about, but I believe you have to factor in that some teams are terrible at 2 point conversions. For those that are average or above, yes.
So why do conservative NFL coaches ignore the data on 4th and 1? Based on data their isn't a position of the field that you shouldn't go for it on 4th and 1 including inside your own 10 yard line.
Fear, and lack of faith that the team will be able to convert. But I think we are seeing a change in philosophy led by Doug Pederson, who attempts 4th downs FAR more than any other coach.....and also he won the Superbowl.
Are you kidding me? Go look at the stats of the playoff games, go look at the clutch plays Sanchez made. He had us up 11 points in the AFC Championship game, Darnold couldn't have done any better than Sanchez did in those playoffs because Sanchez was superb.
