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Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by Brook!, Dec 12, 2021.
Who said science? The topic was the eye test.
The top QB’s in the league in my opinion:
-Rodgers: 0 GS 0TD/1INT
-Brady: 0 GS 0TD/0INT
-Mahomes: 0 GS 0TD/1INT
-Allen: 11 GS 10TD/12INT
-Burrow: 10 GS 13TD/5INT
-Herbert: 15 GS 31TD/10INT
-Prescott: 16 GS 23TD/4INT
-Stafford: 10 GS 13TD/20INT
-Wilson: 16 GS 26TD/10INT
-Murray: 16 GS 20TD/12INT
-Carr: 16 GS 21TD/12INT
-Jackson: 7 GD 6TD/3INT
As a comparison (incomplete):
-Z. Wilson: 11 GS 7TD/11INT
I don’t see an obvious statistical trend that really says anything. If he had an outrageous INT total that would be one thing but at 11… it’s more about low TD total than high INT total. Most of those guys had a similar INT total if they played the majority of the season. Some guys had really good rookie years, others not really, and some didn’t really see the field.
Edit: Forgot Jackson
Wilson doesn’t get the option of having a redshirt year because he played. So those guys are pretty much irrelevant to the point.
This pretty much proves my point though. Wilson has far underperformed most of the quarterbacks on this list did in their rookie year. Allen also added 631 yards and 8 touchdowns on the ground as a rookie which is something that is usually forgotten when telling his story. He was the Bills leading rusher that year.
Just as some additional stats
-Rodgers: 0 Rush TD
-Brady: 0 Rush TD
-Mahomes: 0 Rush TD
-Allen: 8 Rush TD
-Burrow: 3 Rush TD
-Herbert: 5 Rush TD
-Prescott: 6 Rush TD
-Stafford: 2 Rush TD
-Wilson: 4 Rush TD
-Murray: 4 Rush TD
-Carr: 0 Rush TD
-Jackson: 5 Rush TD
-Z. Wilson: 4 Rush TD
Huh? There's a clear trend and it's that the best QB's usually had significantly more TD's than INT's in their first seasons playing. That's without mentioning completion % which Wilson has been abysmal at.
I don't get the point of including Rodgers and Brady's seasons when they weren't playing either. The trend is even more clear if you include the first seasons they consistently played.
The one thing that makes me optimistic about Wilson is that he's shown a clear ability to identify and limit his big mistakes as the season has progressed. That doesn't mean he's played well though and it sure as hell doesn't mean that most guys who play poorly their first season end up being good.
Well it’s not really fair to use redshirt rookie seasons.
But should we use every guy who’s been a top 10 QB at some point in the last 10 years? 15 years?
Look at every situation they’ve been drafted to? Coaching experience? OL? Skill Groups? I’m just trying to make a point that a simple stat isn’t enough to draw conclusions from.
I am beginning to think the whole draft class was overhyped. Herbert, Burrow, and even Tua set high standards None of this yrs rookies is showing the flash or potential
Maybe he can play running back
What are realistic expectations for rookie QB starting game 1? I think this board is expecting unrealistic play and stats especially since they are playing most of the time with horrible teams and supporting cast. Can’t compare Lawrence with Herbert, Herbert walked onto team much better. With all pro receiver. For Gods sake, Mahomes sat a year and had tyreek Hill. Same with Zach, the jets are just pure garbage. Fields same. Mills has been remarkably good this season, for that bad Houston team. But has good experienced receivers to throw to. Mac on petty good team. Allen was bad until they traded for Diggs. Playing for bad teams as rookies, I just need to ask what is the realistic expectation. 10-12 TDs 6-8 INTs. 200 yds a game. Not sure. But not much higher than that. There needs to be a progression. Can’t compare to others that sat year or 2. That is not comparable. Two off seasons to mature and learn. These guys thrown onto the fire. Need to show some patience. Give them some time.
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Of course he does the different between the first and second year is enourmous. The question is do you learn more from the bench or playing.
You are 100% correct. There are way to many variables to determine if a QB will be good after year by looking at TD and int.
I recall at least 2 if not 3 INTs that are attributable to C Davis.
And other drops by others that killed drives.
it'd have been nice to get SOME support.
What does that matter though? If they are in a bad situation and struggle, does that make it more likely that they’re going to get better later on in their career?
Look at Darnold as an example.
Troy Aikman I believe had 2:1 ration in INTs to TDs in his rookie season. Remember a lot labeled him as busts but I remember few scouts saw a lot of good things despite a rough year.
I just realized, he did the mouse whiskers and I totally missed it.
I've been waiting all season to make fun of that.
Make fun all you want... but Zach has a way with the ladies!
Pointing out an exception to a rule doesn't make the rule generally untrue.
Aikman's rookie year was 1989. In 1989, a league average passer rating was in the mid 70s, which is like a 1:1 TD-INT ratio. And it was fairly common for a QB to throw more INTs than TDs. In 2021, a league average passer rating is in the mid 90s, which is like a 2:1 TD-INT ratio. And only Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, and Darnold (lol) have more INTs than TDs. I'm pretty sure part of that is due to playing for bad teams, but the odds aren't really in any of these guys' favor.
He looks significantly less frazzled, he is clearly able to at least get to his second progression and sometimes beyond as opposed to earlier in the year when he was leaving wide open guys everywhere. He is making better decisions and not taking sacks when he would hold the ball too long earlier in the year. He looks much more stable back there.
Again, I'm not saying he's become a good QB, just that he's absolutely made some progress from the start of the year.
Wilson is not getting to his 2nd progression. That was pointed out multiple times in the video.
Like when he threw into double coverage with Crowder with the slant / in open in the middle of field.
The Bucs and Bills will probably thrash him this week, but we’ll blame it on lack of weapons. Hey looking like #2 pick again.