If Houston will take the #2 and a face-saving throw-in (Darnold) then I'm ok with it. However getting Watson forces the Jets to do other things differently and we probably do not get a long window out of the deal. We might not get the short one either. 2-14 is 2-14.
2-14 with the worst HC/QB combo in the league** Assuming Saleh is an upgrade over Gase (hard not to be, but he is a rookie HC and we should expect some bumps). And knowing without a doubt that Watson is a massive upgrade on Darnold. It's reasonable to think the Jets will be significantly better just by upgrading those 2 spots, and that's without upgrading anything else, which they are well positioned to do.
this is actually a good point. that next years first from Seattle could go from potentially 21-33 range to a mid to maybe high 1st if they trade Russell or decide to rebuild. Any QB that comes in won’t nearly have the pedigree nor ability to carry the Seahawks.
It doesn't matter who the HC was. Jimmy Johnson, Bill Parcells and Bill Walsh combined couldn't have gotten many more wins out of the 2020 Jets. The talent just wasn't there. All 3 of those guys took over bad rosters like the 2020 Jets roster and then did just as poorly as the last guy in the season they cleaned it out top to bottom. The 2021 Jets enter the competition with one of the worst rosters in the NFL. Expecting them to do a lot better this year is a pipe dream.
The Seahawks definitely have some collapse potential in them at this point. 3 of the 5 starters on the OL are 33 or older and the LB's are getting up there also. This may be one of the reasons Russell Wilson is suddenly a squeaky wheel. He doesn't want to leave a year too late if things are looking shaky.
So I think Douglas has been low balling Houston and most other teams backed out. Now Houston sends the HC out to drum up more interest and then back out. Houston isn't getting the offer they hoped most likely. I'd say JD sits firmly in control. Houston basically has to try him before the draft at this point and the window is closing. I also bet Carolina backed out with the new Rhule comments. I don't think anyone else was every truly in.
Huston HAS to come out of this mess with a starting QB. Here's some options they have: 1- swap with Seattle (Wilson). Watson wants out. Wilson wants out. bang bang. done. 2- swap with Cards (Murray). Reunite Watson with DeAndre Hopkins and JJ Watt. 3- swap with Jags (Trevor Lawrence) 4- swap with Jets (Sam and/or #2 overall) 5- swap with Fish (Tua and/or #3 overall) These are 5 ways the Texans can end up with a starting QB. Wilson, Murray, Trevor, Sam, Tua, or either the #2 or #3 to pick a rookie QB. There's a few others I didn't list, like Teddy Bridgwater, Mariota, Jamies Winston, etc.
Russel Wilson has a NTC. He’s not approving a trade to Houston. The Jags aren’t trading #1. The Texans would have to want to build around Tua or a QB other than Lawrence and Zach Wilson. Fields is repped by Watson’s agent. I think it’s us or Dolphins and I think we’ve got the upper hand. And I think the price is dropping.
The reality in the Deshaun Watson situation is the same it has always been: neither side has a lot of leverage. Watson can sit out but that will cost him somewhere between $15-20M in cash to do and I don't mean lost income, I mean cash he has to hand back to the Texans that he currently has in his possession. The Texans can sit on him forever but all that will do is get some cash back and defer the fight to next season. It's a lose-lose for the two parties at this point. I think this is why the Texans have been using McClain to try to drive the conversation. They recognize that there are no good outs for them and they're trying to build a market for Watson that will justify trading him in the eyes of the fans. The problem is that since the Texans have no good outs they also have very low leverage in the trade market. What is obvious to them at this point is also obvious to all the suitors in the supposed Deshaun Watson sweepstakes: the Texans are either going to get something for Watson before the draft or they are going to sit on him until camp approaches. If they do not trade him before the draft they will be getting back unknown compensation in the form of future picks with no idea where those picks will fall on the spectrum. I'm fairly sure at this point that if the Jets hold out until the draft they have something approaching a 50/50 chance to get Watson for just the #2 pick. Maybe with a face-saving player thrown in alongside that pick. The pressure is going to build on the Texans week after week and eventually day after day as the draft approaches. On the flip side Deshaun Watson really does not want to come to NY. He would much rather go to the Fins and the much friendlier tax code in Florida. It is just as likely that the Fins wind up getting him for the #3 pick and a face-saving player. We forget in all of this that Watson has a no-trade clause and that he ultimately will decide which offer the Texans accept if there are multiple offers. In any case there is nothing productive the Jets can do by making a bid beyond the #2 pick at this point. We'd just be bidding against ourselves in the process and likely increasing the chances the Texans look at us and only us and get Watson to invoke the no-trade clause. If the Fins make a low-ball offer and the Texans come to us, well the #2 pick is an improvement over the #3 pick by quite a bit in this draft and our counter-offer doesn't need to go much beyond that. In either case Watson is going to have the final say and unless we are the only way out of Houston for him we're likely not getting him.
I think the fins maybe moving on. I maybe wrong but until recently the coach didn't feel the need to publicly back Tua. Recently he has meaning as the draft approaches he is going to focus on building around Tua. I could be wrong but at a certain point most teams are going to back out. Eventually Houston will get be getting peanuts. JD just needs to keep his offer nearly above anyone else.
It's really hard to decipher true intentions in situations like this. Pumping up Tua publicly could easily be done with the intention of compelling the Texans to accept a deal involving him.
True but it's very late for that. We did that with Sam months ago. I think if that was the case with the fish they would have done a while back as well. This late it's more likely to up Tua's confidence.
Despite not believing it has great odds of happening, I'm allowing myself this beautiful California Friday to daydream about Deshaun Watson as a Jet next year. That's all.
The Fins are in a strange position right now. They could take a QB on the #3 and replace Tua the way the Cardinals took Murray and replaced Rosen. However they don't know who will be available on the #3 and so they can't make solid plans to replace Tua at this point. The Cardinals had the #1 and so they already knew what they were doing by this point in the draft process. They could try to trade the #3 and Tua to the Texans for Watson, however that would drive Tua's value in the deal down and might force them to spend more picks than they'd like to in the process. Unlike the Jets the Fins actually have a roster where the improvement Watson represents really matters. The Fins were a win away from the playoffs last year and Watson could well have been the difference for them. But they're still not going to want to give up multiple first picks plus the QB they drafted last year to upgrade the QB position. They were a below .500 team for years before last season's 10-6 and if they make a big deal for Watson and then rubberband back down to .500 or lower - well that's the worst case scenario for them. Realistically, given their heist of 2 1st round picks for Laremy Tunsil last year from the Texans, one of which is the #3 in question, the Fins best move right now is probably to sit pat. Spend that #3 on something to make Tua better and use their draft capital to build the team into a consistent contender. Much less reverb that way in the next year or two and a better chance they take off and become a consistent division contender.
I'm thinking the bold might be the most likely outcome. The Texans could sell themselves on the idea that they could get Tua and draft a QB at #3 and have a decent chance one works out for them, or just roll with Tua and use the #3 on Chase, Smith or an OL. Tua wasn't great last year but I think he played well enough that a team could talk themselves into him.
I don't think there's any chance at all that the Texans take Tua as major freight in a Watson deal AND use the third pick in the draft on a QB. While that idea may have a justifiable/logical basis, there's no way a new GM actively pursues redundancy in the two biggest pieces of a franchise altering deal. I think Caserio either likes Tua and accepts him as their new FQB project or he wants #3 for a QB. And if it's the latter, the Jets have a significant leg up if Douglas is actually interested in making a real run at Watson.
Draft a QB at number 2 who might become as good as Deshaun Watson someday. OR trade number 2 for actual Deshaun Watson tough decision
When the Raiders moved from Oakland to Vegas, Derrick Carr took $2.7M he was prepared to hand over to California and put it back in his pocket for good.
Option 1: Wilson would never approve that trade. Why would he want to go play behind that OL? Option 2: Cards are not moving on from Murray and taking on that contract. Option 3: Jags would be never this in a million years. Option 4: The most realistic if it for the #2. Watson for Darnold is a fucking pipe dream that no team would ever do. Option #5: It would take both Tua and the #3 plus more. You come up with some really bizarre scenarios based on some Walter Mitty type shit.
