To put things in perspective. The Browns gave up 1860 the equivalent of pick 4 in the draft plus a late 4th rounder) trade value points for Watson which is the largest anyone has given up in recent memory topping the Jay Cutler trade to the Bears.
I think future years' firsts are undervalued on the chart and also Browns didn't give up enough to get a QB beast like Watson. Almost a steal for the Browns. Texans would have gotten more if they had a bidding war, but it was more of who Watson picked.
There have been studies that show that almost all NFL trades come pretty darn close to equivalent trade value chart using the chart and discounting future value picks one round per year in the future. There was a big debate on this board back in 2006 ( I believe after we made a trade involving future picks with I think Washington or Philly?) where some people did not believe teams treated future picks one round lower. The board analyzed all trades between 2000 and 2006 (I think there were 6 or 8 total) that involved future draft picks and all pretty much came out perfect with the trade value chart and lowering the pick one round per year. I have read a few articles the last few years about similar studies which show the old Jimmy Johnson chart is still used and almost all trades align with it and so do future picks discounted at 1 round per year. While I agree in the long run getting extra value for waiting a year makes a franchise better in the long run. In reality most GMs and coaches cannot wait an extra year for future picks as they have to produce today or those future picks will go to the next FO. Which is likely the main reason that future picks are valued as such. Which also gives a structural advantage to teams with more stable FOs like NE, Baltimore and Pittsburgh in that they can trade for future picks and realize the value while not worrying about losing their jobs.
That time period, I felt that the higher draft picks had less value due to the stupid salaries unproven rookies (sam bradford anyone...) were getting. Trades seem to be back in line with JJ's chart, and people are more willing to gamble on them knowing they wont be as hamstrung if they dont work out...
If we have to give more than the second and third I would reconsider. There is a lot of talent at other positions in the second round. Let SF simmer for a while. No to using the 10th pick.
I vote for #1. Not that Deebo isn't worth more than any WR we could get at #10, but I'm hoping JD can use #10 to trade back and get a couple of picks out of it which would be worth more than just Deebo. And I don't want to give up both 2's.
Still, Browns got a steal with Deshawn and I don't see Deebo costing less than older Hill for the reasons I mentioned earlier. IF the Jets end up with him, and that is a HUGE if, it will be for a package as good or higher than what JD offered for Hill, I am quite certain of that.
A lot of chatter that Deebo doesnt like the way SF used him unless he is paid in such a manner that it is beneficial to Deebo. Sorta how some tight-ends feel they should be paid as a receiver. Deebo wants to be paid more due to the fact that he carries the ball 5+ times almost every game and takes a beating for it. As previousley mentioned, the 9er's are using credit cards to pay for their players and we all know that always bites you in the ass ie...Saints, Dallas right now. Is Deeebo 6'3", no he isnt but he is built like a tank and plays like a much bigger wideout. The question would be in his mind, how would the Jets use him vs what they will pay him I would imagine. Personally, I would try to trade 35 and 38 for him. With 10, trade back and recoup those picks and take a bigger wideout like Burks or Watson (I want no part of London/I hope he is gone before we have the opportunity to take him). At that point if Zack sucks, it truly is on Zack because he will have an o-line and weapons like no other Jets QB has had. With the remaining draft picks, use them all on the defense even if we pick KT, JJ, or Sauce at 4......
If he doesn't want to be used like that, doesn't that diminish his value to us since LaFleur's offense is similar? Or if he's okay being used like that but wants to be paid more, will Douglas pay it? I disagree on giving up both 2nds, and also with using all the other picks on "D". I would still want to get a WR who can burn and take the top off the defense, and I'd love to get another OL, whether it's insurance against Becton not being able to play, or a C.
With all the amazing trades Joe Douglas has done in recent seasons, it wouldn't shock me if he swapped #35 for #61 and Deebo. This guy is a wizard! Seriously though, I am torn on acquiring Samuel. I think the Jets can get good players with #35 and #38. Definitely can get good players with #4 and #10. Save the money, see how the 2022 season goes, then use that money to add a couple key players and become a true contender in 2023. However, I won't complain if the franchise wants to start winning in 2022 and they think Deebo or AJ Brown or DK Metcalf can help do it.
If that is the case then JD needs to politely say fuck no. He had one spectacular year, That all we have really seen of Mr Debbo and he is already unhappy playing in a great offensive scheme.
Give them #10, I don't worry about the money, cap is going way up next couple of years and that is going to be the going rate for a stud WR. I would rather have our stud WR rather than hoping we draft a guy that produces 1000+ yards in the same system at #10. He was SF entire offense last year and honestly we have better personnel minus Deebo so our offense with him should be better than SF offense last year. Draft Def heavy and we are a different team next year.
Winner winner. He doesn’t want to run the ball anymore. How bad do we want him if he’s not the versatile back anymore?
I would normally agree with you about saving the picks but this year I think JD is all in to help ZW develop this year. I don't think the question is winning now but giving our young QB enough support so he can develop and they can properly evaluate him. Last year's injuries and the rest of the Jets let Zach down. His supporting cast was horrible playing pretty much his entire time without a functioning OL and skill players. Saleh talked about lifting Zach up and not needing Zach to be the one doing the heavy lifting but it turned into the reverse. No better way to ruin a young QB than to force him to win by himself. That is a recipe for regression which is what we saw over the first 5 games where Zach was the best player on the field 2 games single handily almost willing the Jets to victory and also the worst player on the field 2 other games losing his confidence, his mechanics and his pocket presence. Giving ZW competent reliable weapons, a competent OL and a competent defense allows him the opportunity to play within the offense and not try to do too much. That is how a young QB can build confidence. There are no guarantees ZW will work out with a better team around him but it gives him a much better chance to develop, gain confidence and get better. There is nothing more important than giving ZW a chance to develop which is why I think JD has gone all in this off-season to help ZW.
Get Debo but hold on to that 10th...I am ok how the deal plays out from there but this team needs a boost in the arm!! Give up some future who know what first or second picks for a known commodity to counter Miami grabbing T Hill
