The worst thing that could happen to this team is taking a QB in the draft to replace Sam who will be burdened with Lawrence comparisons. Build the team and ride Sam’s contract out. Maybe with good coaching and supporting talent he turns it around.
i think it boils down to, do you want a guy who you control for a number of years or an unproven commodity that you have to sign to that 2nd contract. those contracts usually really hamstring teams in what they are able to spend on the rest of the team. if you bring in fields, trade darnold and reset.... again. for the 70th time. we should be considering ourselves lucky that we have darnold or a rookie because its not a neil odonnell, boomer esiason, frank reich, browning nagle, brooks bollinger, geno smith, ryan fitzpatrick, josh mccown that we have to watch suck knowing they will suck and be gone sooner than later.
Please, this or any franchise is only waits for the people who can work the system. The Sox were only needed the right GM. The Cubs actually had the same one. Let it happen. This curse stuff is nonsense.
The only way Sam gets a contract that will hamstring the team is if he deserves it, and if he deserves it we should be glad to see him get it and stay.
What I observed is that when Sam has a o-line playing well, he plays well. When the defensive backs are playing with a good pass rush, they play well. I think it goes to show you that some of Sam's short cummings are not all Sam's fault. Look what a better line has done for Baker Mayfield. My bet is JD rides with Sam next year & drafts OT Sewell #2. I truly feel that if you give Sam a good OL & he doesn't have to play superman so much out of the pocket, he can be a competent QB. What I saw from Sam vs. The Rams is he was staying in the pocket & getting the ball out quick. Usually he is running for his life which leads to bad decisions. We'll see if Sam adjusts his style of play these next 2 games, or will he go back to his previous style of play.
the salary cap is 198 million. qbs make alot of money. jacoby brisset 27 almost 28 million, jimmy garropalo 27 million, alex smith 23 million. the lowest guy that isnt on a rookie deal who isnt a journeyman is teddy bridgewater at 21 million. sam darnold will absolutely command that much or he will leave because someone will give him that much. brisset costs 14 percent of the colts cap. thats a pretty big amount to spend on one guy. thats an extra 20 million dollars fewer to spend on resigning guys or spend in free agency compared to what a rookie contract pays out.
Smith is a proven starter worth $23 million. Garapollo just cost the 9’ers a sizable draft sum and they had to pay/commit to him. Brisset is the only outlier in your example whose salary doesn’t match his circumstance. Yes, if Darnold’s play hasn’t justified a $20 million salary, he will leave if another team offers him that much. In that scenario we should be glad to see him go so I’m not sure where the negative is in that scenario. I’m only worried about his cap hit for the Jets, not the cap hit on another team if they pay overpay him.
I agree to some extent, but if we go with Sam that going to cost close to $25 million in 2022 and then more thereafter. If we sign an older stopgap vet for next year or for two years and then Douglas drafts a QB in 2021 or 2022 and lets him either sit for a year or compete for the starting job, then we wouldn't be in the situation of having to sign an expensive 2nd contract. A lot of the older vet QBs now sign for fairly cheap. Colt McCoy is playing for $2.25 ,million. Fitz is playing for $5.5 as is Tyrod Taylor. I'd rather go that route and get whatever we could get for Sam in 2021. That pick could then be used to add a position player in 2021, or if Douglas doesn't like any of the QBs in 2021, could be used towards trading up in 2022 for a QB he does like.
I agree to an extent with the basic sentiment, but also respectfully disagree that it would be the worst possible thing that could happen to the team. Gase remaining as HC, JD missing on most of his picks, and failing to sign any good FAs would all be worse imo. Your point is valid that there will be the inevitable comparisons if JD takes a QB at #2. If he trades down and takes one at #8, I think the comparisons will be less, and if he takes a QB lower than that, I don't think the comparisons will be such an issue. Regardless, however, if JD really thinks that Wilson or Fields can be our QB going forward, he shouldn't let the possibility of Lawrence comparisons scare him away. He should definitely point blank ask both Wilson and Fields if that comparison would bother them, and then closely watch their reaction. I would have no problem with JD waiting to take a QB until 2022 if we miss out on Lawrence, but I also wouldn't have a problem if he took on of Wilson, Fields, Lance or Trask if he believes in that QB. That said, he'd better be right and not miss, because he probably wouldn't get a 2nd chance to draft a QB.
So it’s interesting as to next steps. I’m not sure when the deadline is to exercise the fifth year option, but I think it’s ahead of the draft. so we can: 1. exercise the fifth year option on Sam at about $25M for 2022 and roll with him surrounded by more talent and better coaching. PRO: this would be banking on a better coach and better surrounding talent allowing Sam to develop, and outside of TL, are the other QBs any better than Sam? CON: hard to justify $25M based on Sam’s play to date 2. Don’t exercise the option and trade Sam and find a veteran QB to bridge to a rookie drafted this year or next. PRO: let’s us move on and get some draft capital back to help the rebuild, and also resets the QB salary at the rookie pay scale and avoids paying Sam big dollars. CON: unsure what we’d get back in trade based on Sam’s poor play to date, also means we are starting over at QB yet again 3. Don’t exercise the option but keep Sam for 2021 under his rookie deal (about what, $9-$10M for 2021?) to prove himself and draft a rookie to sit for a year. PRO: doesn’t lock us in to Sam, as he hasn’t proven himself yet, but allows him a final chance to show he can do it, while still building for the future with a rookie, and if he fails, then we’re not committed to him for 2022. CON: if Sam actually succeeds, we’d almost surely have to pay more than the $25M we’d be able to do under the fifth year option. Some tough choices here for sure....JD will have to make his choices and deal with the consequences. It will really come down to how JD and (hopefully) a new coach feels about Sam. JD has supported Sam in words to date, but this will show how he REALLY feels. If he truly believes in him, he’ll exercise the fifth year option. If he doesn’t really believe, then it’ll be interesting to see if he keeps him to give him another shot or if he trades him and cuts bait. man..this would have been SO much easier if we had just continued to lose out and secured the first pick.
I meant it more as the worst thing that could happen in regards to the QB position and how it impacts the draft. Absolutely Gase staying would be worse, but I’m operating under the idea that he gone.
This talk about going with a stop-gap and taking a QB in 2022...or 2023....or 2027....is nutso, IMO. You don't know where you'll be drafting and you don't know if the year you stink if there'll be a QB that is worth your pick or even worth a LOWER pick. That's what made this year so unique: it was can't-lose with TL. If the Jets don't get a shot at TL -- I estimate the chances at about 5% -- then they either stick with Sam or draft a QB (at #2 or with a trade-down). They aren't taking on a retread like Tyrod Taylor or Fitz -- you can't sell that to a ticket-buying public post-Covid. You aren't gambling on a Wentz or Cousins or whomever -- the draft picks you won't want to surrender, the $$$ cap costs are too much. You'd also be gambling your GM-ship. It's Sam....or Fields....or Wilson....or Trask.
did you notice that all the guys who are even decent that are on their 2nd contract are up there above 20 million? he will get offered a nice contract, and if he gets a nice contract offer and leaves then what is your plan? draft another qb? have a qb in waiting? go with glenn foley or hackenburg?
You pointed out one guy (Smith) who is better than decent, another guy who got paid because he was just traded for (and was being paid for the hope that he was elite, as opposed to any proven performance either way like Sam), and only one player who was overpaid based on his circumstances. Only 1/3 supports your argument, which isn’t really proving an argument that Sam will get $20 million plus regardless of how well he plays. If Sam plays like Alex Smith he will be worth $20 million.
If Sam plays the next 2 games like he did Sunday, this is the best way to go IMO. And if he does succeed, I would have no problem signing him for more money at that point, so I don't see that as a "CON".
Yah....it’s only a Con because we could exercise the option at $25M but may have to pay more than that if Sam succeeds So this trading off risk
How about sign Sam to a three year deal in the off season. In the region of 12-15m gtd for the first 2 years (perhaps with incentives on top) and a third year option in the region of 25m. If he plays well the Jets get a good deal, if not they get a backup for 1 year at reasonable price or can trade him and probably eat some cash for a year.
