Statistically Mahomes and Watson were rated ahead of Mitch overall, and more so in adjusted clean pocket and deep passing accuracy.
I'm referring more to how baseball is basically ruled by analytics moreso than the methodology that they use. And for what it's worth I still think it's overused. If a pitcher rolls through 6 or so at 102 pitches he starts the 7th for me. Certain baseball analysts disagree. But that's besides the point. I wouldn't even call PFF analytics or anything like that. It's moreso just a grading system. There's also a much bigger feel to a football game and momentum and emotions than there is in other sports. Frank Reich overusing analytics in their playoff game is a good example of how he ruled by the book and not by how the game was going.
and that dickhead Collinsworth gets to market his own site (PFF) every SNF broadcast. He makes millions as a broadcaster, millions with PFF, with the free marketing in tandem. And pays his "analysts" average joes Wal Mart wages. Fuck him
https://www.pff.com/news/draft-pff-draft-board-top-100-prospects-of-2017 https://www.pff.com/news/ranking-the-top-10-qb-draft-prospects https://www.pff.com/news/draft-final-pff-draft-board-top-250-prospects-of-2017 So why'd they rate him higher?
Yeah I meant to mention that too. PFF would be a fringe site kind of thing if Collinsworth didn't buy the majority stake and pimp it out on his own broadcasts with the grades below each player every week.
While I disagree with Kurt about Wilson, it's a matter of degree. I like Wilson, and I base that on what I've seen of him, but that said I haven't seen every single snap he's played. From what I've seen I like his arm and his accuracy, and his "sense" of the game - he reminds me a lot of Mahomes in that regard, although he doesn't have near Mahomes's arm strength. I agree with Kurt that the heavy reliance on stats can really lead you astray. I continually find that Twain's quote: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damnable lies, and statistics" to be proven more right than wrong, and so I use them more as a measurement of trends in a player. I do have concerns with Wilson, mainly his injury potential, and not playing enough really top flight competition. Can he make the throws he makes against college teams when he's playing against pros? I believe he can, but he's going to have to learn to adjust to do it. If he's made to start Day 1 I think he'll struggle because he won't be used to the huge difference in speed that the pro game is played at. But if he can sit and learn for a while I think he can adjust. Is he worth the #2 pick? Maybe not, but if that's the guy Douglas wants, he's probably going to have to use it on him because he's not going to slide much, if at all. Douglas has access to most, if not all, of the tape on the QBs he might be considering, and I trust he'll make a much sounder decision than I, or anyone else here, can.
No i dont have a link. One report or multiple reports its still the same red flag.For the sake of compromise lets say its the same report that didnt get widely circulated until recently. Either way..these things never surface for nothing & dont have a good track record to the contrary. Leaf,Manziel,Geno & Rosen.Acouple quotes & a made for TV moment is an awfully low threshold for moving on from off the field issues. So dumbed down schemes, dumbed down game prep, no crowd noise & the like due to covid isnt a factor? And this being Wilson’s only productive season has no correlation?AT ALL? Would Coastal have been ranked if all conferences played? Spoiler: likely no. Youre saying im bias yet youre the one insecure about legit scrutiny. Im sorry Wilson isnt the perfect prospect you think he is
As if right now no one..if i have to choose its Lance.But anxious to see these pro days.Incl Wilson’s.. who of this crop has legit chops? My guess is Lance.We’ll see..
Wasn't Wilson just an average D1 QB until this past season? he looked like dogshit in a handful of games in 2019. You really wanna stake your claim on the 2020 season only? When BYU played a random group of mid majors in empty stadiums. Scary stuff
I think I figured out your methodology. Let me know if I am wrong. You look at athletic guys with big arm, who showed some talent, and the thinking is that if they fully realize their athletic potential, they are going to be superstars. Guys like Lance, Allen certainly fit the description. Stats don't matter, just the highlights of best players to illustrate the potential. No visible red flags, such as injury or some negative reports. Even Fields, who is athletic, does not quite have the arm of Lance and Allen, hence he is not at that level yet, though possible. I get that philosophy and I like these guys too, but I just think there is more to it. That's why I watch all tape multiple times, look at breakdowns by former players/coaches, and review stats, particularly more advanced ones to see how they measure up with what I saw. I do want a good athlete with strong arm too, but I want to see who has a chance to be a better passer in NFL. It's not always the guy who can jump higher. Though out of HS, Zach in fact jumped higher than Lance on vertical. You say Zach does not have elite arm, I disagree. I think both Zach and Fields have very strong arms. Saw Zach throw 60-65 yards with flick of a wrist. Elite athlete? Not sure about definition of the Elite, he is no Fields, but out of HS tested extremely well on the athletics test (101 SPARQ rating), former multi sport athlete, plus you could see on film him jumping over guys, having great mobility. I would say Sam is a good analogy from athlete perspective. Intangibles? YES! Did you see arm angles he uses? Throws to the opposite side of the field? You are faulting him for having only one good season, when he actually had two, while someone like Lance only had one, and played on much better team than opponents, and you like him. So, based on the criteria I mentioned above, you find guys you like, like Lance, and guys you don't like, then use whatever it takes to put down guys you don't like. For example, after leading BYU to historically good record and rankings, your only takeaway was negative: that Zach lost one game.
You are confusing actual advanced stats they provide with the mock draft they have. I only look at the advanced stats from pff, not their opinion who should go higher. And advanced stats showed sizable advantage for Watson and Mahomes in key categories like deep ball, clean pocket, and they came out ahead overall. Keep in mind, this is only part of evaluation. Mahomes had some special stuff on tape with huge arm, setting records in yards. Watson was national championship, had great mobility and running game. Kept Clean Adjusted Mahomes 82.9 Watson 79.1 Trubisky 76.6 Deep Ball Watson 46.7 Mahomes 44 Trubisky 40.8 Adjusted completion Watson 76.1 Mahomes 75.4 Trubisky 74.7 Overall Watson 87.2 Mahomes 87.2 Trubisky 86.4
I’ve never been big on PFF or even some stats. I like to evaluate a prospect with what I see. The eye test for me is the number one attribute in determining a good player from an average to a below average. The thing is a lot of players a “good” but need to take that jump to the pros for their style of play to flourish. This is exactly what happened with Watson in his draft year. Everyone knew he was good but he needed to get to the pros to show that he was great.
You are using Pro Day to find out who is legit? I guess it fits with the evaluation criteria you have where game situations are not as critical as potential. To me Pro Day is to determine if you fixed some of the things you were doing wrong, like footwork, some mechanics. But to determine the guy is legit by watching them throw to wide open receivers? Sure, it's a part of it, but for me a very small one. I am looking forward to combine results and measurements though. Also a relatively small part, but could be big if a guy turns out undersized.
Take a look, pretty entertaining, probably will need a few takes to see it all, but enjoyable video. No, he does not have Mahomes arm, but after Mahomes and Allen, he could be in the conversation for next.
I dont care about them hitting wide open targets or any of that. I wanna see the ball leave their hands, the ball rotation, the arc,trajectory & velocity. Also want to see how strong they look in their drops. Anybody look better or worse than what was seen on tape that would cause me to go back? Chances are no.. but its meaningful info
Wilson is FAR away from finished product, not even close. If you look at the tape, as someone commented his drop backs are not great, he can improve that. He can improve his reads. Need to be careful not leading the receivers to get demolished by safeties. Get rid of the ball quicker. Better footwork. Know what to use throws off different angles. Add more weight to frame. Know when to slide. The list goes on and on. There is so much to learn to get better. But the huge thing is, he made already great improvement before from his freshman year, where he was good, but not elite, to junior year, where he is one the best QBs in the nation. He did this in only one offseason, dealing with surgery two years ago. He can take another leap, there is no doubt about it, it's just a mistake to characterize him as finished product, just because he has good fundamentals, which is actually a positive.
C'mon now. You aren't interested in my methodology or who i like or dont. You don't like my opinion of Wilson so you're passive aggressively trying to put my credibility into question. It's about properly identifying their strengths & their weaknesses via film study & projections.Do the strengths equate to an NFL QB who can win games on his own? Where will the weaknesses show up?Can they be eliminated or minimized? No 2 QB prospects are the same so there really is no set baseline beyond functional size, mobility & arm talent. That said We're talking about taking a QB #2 overall They better be a complete package & dynamic or have the ability to become such. Obviously that comes in different shapes & sizes. But really I wanna see guys make plays completely on their own, quite often under the worst of circumstances that translate to the NFL. Athleticism in & out of the pocket as well as on dropbacks, instinctual off script throws, Quick release/Delivery throwing w. anticipation, Going through progressions & velocity to all 3 levels w. a nice top on the ball are at a premium. That said...we are seeing a trend of Big ,strong Dual threat QBs w. elite arm strength having massive success..Started w. Rodgers & Big Ben...now Mahomes & Allen are carrying the torch. I have no axe to grind w. Wilson. if anything I like QBs that play at his level bc they're still getting FBS level coaching & playing under that pressure, but aren't surrounded by 5 stars at every position. It lends to them doing more w. less. I like his size & I like how smooth he is on dropbacks. And understand..it'd be alot easier to embrace Wilson considering the need for a FQB & where the jets are selecting. But I'm Sorry. I've watched several games...some on repeat. Nothing Screams #2 overall pick & the answer to a 50 year riddle. His throws float, he has a slightly long delivery & all of these "Wow" throws everyone keeps isolating either aren't all that impressive or even more common are Interceptions in the NFL! I've heard people say he's the best fit for Lafleur b.c of his mobility. And while I like his drop backs & his ability to climb the pocket...the key word is FROM THE POCKET. It's already been established that he isn't a dual threat & I don't like how he moves outside the hashes. He either lacks some foot quickness, is stiff in hips or ankle or lacks change of direction...bc I saw a handful of UGLY would be NFL sacks. I don't see how that works in a Shanahan system where quite often QB is moving in & out of pocket & making throws on the run. So I look at Wilson's strengths -Size -Pocket presence -Dropbacks -Mechanics -Progressions -High completion %(Threw you a bone) W.o even looking at his weaknesses...do those strengths scream dynamic & a 2nd overall pick? -Limited athlete outside hashes -Throws tend to float & can lack velocity - Long Delivery - Ill advised throws into coverage How about now? That's not even including all the red flags you took exception to me referencing that one has to work through before sorting through this info. To me it screams a guy that will get taken too soon b.c of his advanced mechanics & ability to play early but 3 years from now proves to not be dynamic & transcendent for any number of reasons above IF he overcomes the medical & potential off the field concerns. I mean...you don't have to agree but am i really this big bad Wilson hater?? The tape is what it is.
Last response to you. I'm talking major whole sale drastic improvements not improvements that every QB prospect makes when they enter the league. Talking about big picture ceiling/upside more than if he can get marginally better. His ceiling doesn't justIfy the risk associated w. the red flags currently bestowed. The medical history likely isn't going anywhere, the off the field "Smoke" has some bad case law & 1 year of production in a season that was anything but ordinary(according to everyone but you) in any way shape or form isn't going anywhere.
True they will get a chance to gauge the size, athleticism, and velocity of the QB. But even more importantly, they will have a chance to interview them, as well as others close to them. The character and intangibles of the QB is everything, and that info can’t be found on PFF. So yes, Pro Days will be very important this year, especially absent the combine process.
I like Wilson but he can’t be the pick at 2... he’s just not ready for a team like the Jets where he will be forced in day 1. He’s a perfect fit in Atlanta, Carolina or Detroit where they have a veteran starter and he can sit for a season or two just like Mahomes, Favre, ARod (strong arm QBs from small schools). If we take a QB at it’s going to be Fields.
