Darnold: Fair market value

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by rscherwin, Nov 30, 2020.

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What is Darnold's realistic trade value?

  1. 1st Rounder

    6.7%
  2. 2nd Rounder

    24.7%
  3. 3rd Rounder

    25.8%
  4. 4th Rounder

    28.1%
  5. 5th Rounder and below

    14.6%
  1. REVISion

    REVISion Well-Known Member

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    It's a misrepresentation to say Sam has merely been "below average". Below average to me would mean Sam has consistently been the 15-20th best QB, that range. The most respected QB metrics that we have, like ANY/A, pretty much all say that Sam is one of the worst QB's in the NFL and has been during every one of his seasons. That's not my opinion, that's what he is based on numbers.

    With that being said, I don't think he'd be as good as Tannehill or Flacco. For one thing Tannehill already played in a similar situation as Sam (same coach, not much surrounding talent) and Tannehill was A LOT better than Sam has ever been.

    Flacco is a bit trickier because his stats for most of his career have been only slightly better than Sam's, and he definitely had a better situation than Sam. I will say that it's pretty damning for Sam that all of our best QB games this year have been with Flacco at the helm. Flacco is washed up and barely has a functioning neck yet he has still played objectively better than Sam this year.

    I guess my ultimate point is that even if Sam was as good as Flacco or Tannehill that's not something we should be content with. Teams without top tier QB's rarely compete for a Super Bowl and when they do it's because of extremely rare scenarios where the stars align and they have top running games and defenses. And even then, it's harder to sustain having a top running game and defense than it is to just find a great QB and pay him whatever you need to to keep him for 15 years.
     
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  2. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    We can agree to disagree on whether Darnold can be average or better than. Obviously we're not going to agree. But I DO agree that I'm not content with just an average QB. I've wanted a true stud QB since Namath left, and the closest we've come to that is probably O'Brien. That's pathetic, and I fault the Jets for holding onto a "defense wins championships" philosophy for that.

    I was never a big Darnold supporter prior to his arrival - in that class I preferred Rosen or Mayfield - but I did see potential. And even up until this year I saw enough to believe he could be above average and capable of winning a SB - if they got rid of Gase and improved the surrounding talent. So my "defense" of him is centered on those two factors, which I believe you and Vilma are seriously downplaying in your judgment. At this point though, with the very real possibility of drafting a much better prospect than Darnold ever was - whether Lawrence or Fields or Wilson - I agree that we need to move on.
     
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  3. footballfundamentals

    footballfundamentals Well-Known Member

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    Put Sam in a system with talent and a good head coach and he would flourish. Colts, 49ers, Bills, Chiefs, etc.
     
  4. Ralebird

    Ralebird Well-Known Member

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    Darnold's signature is not at all related to a win - it is either "Will he play this week?" or "How many turnovers?"
     
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  5. Bellys Lies

    Bellys Lies Well-Known Member

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    What team is going to give up a second-round pick to trade for Sam. Maybe Washington would trade Haskins for Sam,maybe Chicago would trade Mitch for Sam.Sam is the worst starter in the NFL Mitch's stats in chicago blow Sams away and they are thinking of cutting him. Nobody is going to trade for Sam and give him their starting job, he is worst than every other teams starting qb right now. He has horrible stats, has been hurt or out of a lot games and has not improved at all in the NFL. He still has bad footwork and turns the ball over too much.He has as many turnovers as a pro as he does TDS. A team might try and fix him on the cheap,but he is broken. What are his pro highlights 3 yrs in where it shows he might be something special?
    Imagine if for some reason we did not get Lawrence or Fields (it is not happening), however, how would you feel if our future revolved around Sam? I want him and Gase gone before Lawrence ever enters the building. Nothing but positive and new starts.
     
  6. BrooklynJetsFan

    BrooklynJetsFan Well-Known Member

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    Wrong. He’s in the middle of his throwing motion.
     
  7. 94Abraham

    94Abraham Well-Known Member

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    Plenty of QBs get sacked all the time but don’t immediately cough it up just because they may be just starting their motion. On the second fumble, he was only prepping to get into his motion and still fumbled. I know you don’t ever want to blame Sam for anything but anyone can objectively place partial blame on him for the second fumble.
     
  8. MoWilkBeast

    MoWilkBeast Well-Known Member

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    To me Darnold has, and I use the word advisedly, played well when the offense as a whole has functioned. When he has a run game, when he has fit receivers, when pass pro holds up enough just to give him that fraction of extra time. There are streaks in his career that clearly demonstrate this, where his performance and stats (for those that care about them) show that he can perform well. Even this year, there are phases within games (such as Sunday's 4thQ) that show it, albeit in a very limited time frame. Put him in this situation then I still believe he can be a good - as in middling to above average - QB. But I think it is clear that he can not be the sort of guy that puts the team on his shoulders and elevates the play of those around him or produce consistently in a less than ideal situation. And he still produces the occasional wtf moment.

    Put him on a decent team with a roster that doesn't suck great hairy balls with an OC that is a real offensive genius (hell, I'd settle for basically competent, something he hasn't had with the Jets) and you'd get a true picture of what his ceiling was. But that ceiling may turn out to be Andy Dalton or something just better.

    I don't think that any of the 18 class QBs would be performing significantly differently with this Jets roster, or that Darnold would be performing this badly anywhere else either. Anyone who completely ignores context and situation really isn't seeing the whole picture, not for me anyway.
     
  9. Jets81

    Jets81 Well-Known Member

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    From a purely statistical standpoint Darnold is the worst starter in the league by a good sized margin. Stats aren’t everything and we all know that there are plenty of factors that contribute to a players performance.

    With that said he’s on page 2 for pretty much everything except for sacks and picks - these are his page 2 statistical neighbors, using yardage as the primary sort statistic:


    - rating 67.2 - neighbor Drew Lock - everyone else around his yardage on page 2 is a solid 10+ points higher including Flacco

    - YPA 5.9 - neighbors Nick Foles and Andy Daulton

    - 55% completion percentage - neighbors Drew Lock and Joe Flacco

    - TD’s 5 - neighbors Alex Smith, Dwayne Haskins, Joe Flacco, Kyle Allen

    - INT 9 - neighbors Drew Lock, Nick Foles, Ryan Fitzpatrick

    - 40+ 1 - neighbors Andy Dalton, Mitch Trubisky, Dwayne Haskins

    - Sacks 25 - neighbors Gardner Minshew, Nick Foles, Alex Smith - all performing better statistically in pretty much every other category


    At roughly half Darnolds yardage is Tua - 63%, 6.6 YPA, 7 TD’s, 0 Picks, 99.4 rating
     
    #149 Jets81, Dec 10, 2020
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2020
  10. BrooklynJetsFan

    BrooklynJetsFan Well-Known Member

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    stop trolling! watch the tape. cranking his arm and gets hit from the left blind side. you’re acting like the rush was in his face or something. sit down.
     
  11. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    in YEAR 3 too. That's the crazy part to me
     
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  12. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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  13. ouchy

    ouchy Well-Known Member

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    Ultimately the fumble doesn't even matter. The outcome of the game is what matters.

    With 14 minutes left in the game we got the ball back down by 11 points. Sam led us on two TD drives and a 2 point conversion in crunch time to take the lead and win the game. That is what matters. That is what fans have been crying for the last 3 years!

    People saying, "well I looked at the stats and that for sure means he didn't have a good game" are full of BS. Oh wait, it was supposed to be a perfect game. I forgot statistic perfection, not wins, is how we rate Sam now.

    In the 4th quarter he did what we needed him to do to win the game for us. When he finally does that and fans still come in and say "it wasn't a good game" you know they are full of crap. Darnold almost snatched the #1 pick from our hands by...not having a good game?

    Just give it a rest.

    People on this thread need to worry that if Darnold plays another sub par game like that then we are going to start winning. Then you will have a real reason to be upset with him.
     

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