No way that is happening. I would bet my life on it. I'm expecting only Newton and Gabbert to go in the first. MAYBE Ponder, Kaepernick, or Dalton sneaks in. Then again Crazy Al may trade into the first and grab Mallett so he can throw 60 yard bombs to his superfast receivers.
One thing I've found hilarious in NFL Radio's coverage is that someone (I think Jim Miller or Bryan McGovern) keeps saying that he's bound to be terrible because "quarterbacks from the WAC have only won, what, 2 Super Bowls? McMahon and Young." He keeps repeating the point over and over again. Aside from the fact that he missed one (forgets Dilfer), the WAC (and we're talking members of the conference when the QBs played for the schools) has produced more Super Bowl winning QBs than the Big East and ACC combined. In fact, the number of QBs from "lesser" conferences (not counting Notre Dame, obviously) is 9, which is higher than any of the individual majors. The Pac 10 and SEC each have 5, the Big 10 has 4, and the WAC comes right after. Just hilarious.
that would be 6, and as unspectacular as this class may seem with teams unable to rely on FA it is very possible. out of those 6 at least 2 will prove worthy. i actually like Ponder/Kaep/Dalton one of them will turn some heads even if not this year.
I don't follow college much but based on just looking up stats, watching some clips, seeing interviews, etc. here is my board. 1. Newton 2. Mallett 3. Kaepernick 4. Gabbert 5. Dalton 6. Locker 7. Ponder So I'm not alone in thinking he should be a 1st round pick..? Also, is that QB ranking list reasonable or am I totally clueless here?
Ponder is too low, but other than that it's at least reasonable. If Mallett doesn't implode, he could well be in that spot careerwise, if not top of the list.
It's the most debatable position of all, due to the intangibles that factor in. Very hard to predict, even for those employed to make such evaluations. I feel Newton needs a good situation and a little time to learn the pro style and personally mature some. You could say that about most QB's though. I think he can be a good NFL QB, just wouldn't take him in top 10. Kaepernick is definitely interesting as well. If he lasts until round 2, he could make a nice value pick for the future. Ponder is somone that i think is moving up a lot of boards. He's not a measurables standout, but is a very bright guy who might just be a gamer in the NFL one day. He comes across to me as a guy with a subtle confidence that could really win over a huddle and coaching staff. Of course, i don't see him lighting anything up in year 1 either.
I agree, Newton and Mallett have the most talent and upside in the NFL. Do they have the leadership and maturity necessary to take a team to success in the NFL? who knows.. also agree on Ponder. I think he goes 3 or 4 come draft day.
What's nuts is that of those 6 players if all were to go in the first round you wouldn't expect more than 2 of them to have decent NFL careers. It really is just so hard to predict success at the QB position. 6 to go in the first round though would be very surprising, just thinking about recent drafts (assuming I havent missed any): - 2010 - 2 QBs - 2009 - 3 QBs - 2008 - 2 QBs - 2007 - 2 QBs - 2006 - 3 QBs - 2005 - 2 QBs
It would be surprising, but imo less so when one considers several factors: 1. First and most importantly, the dearth of quality QBs in the NFL. It is a passing league now, and there just aren't enough quality QBs to go around. Think of all the mediocre journeymen QBs who are able to hang on in spite of never producing/playing well when given a chance. 2. The lack of FA before this draft. Teams can't be sure they'll have an opportunity to acquire a FA QB in time for him to learn their system. At the same time, however, drafted QBs won't have that opportunity any sooner, but at least teams will have the rights to a QB if they select one in the draft. 3. The number of teams needing QBs. This is related to point #1. It's the law of supply and demand. Demand is high, supply is low. That creates desperation. 4. I think when the new CBA is ratified, there will be a rookie salary cap, thus teams will not be taking the multimillion dollar gambles they once did when taking a QB in the first round. When you don't have a QB and it is the most important position on your team, why not roll the dice a little if you know it isn't gonna cost you that much financially? Yes, missing on a 1st round draft pick, especially a higher one will still hurt and have an impact for years to come, but when your team is bad because of the lousy QBs you already have on your roster, it can be worth the risk to improve. 5. There's no guarantees next year's class will be any better. Luck may not come out next year, but even if he does, the rest of the QBs may not be as good as this year's class.
Great post. These are all things I've been trying to hit on. People keep calling this the worst draft class in the past decade, even 20 years, and harping on the idea that everyone is all but assured of bust status. I've never agreed with that sentiment. I view the class at the very LEAST as better than 2002, 2003, and 2007. That doesn't mean that these guys DESERVE to go where they're going, just that they'll be better than most people on here seem to expect. As you pointed out, and I've been saying over and over again, the position is the product of all the factors you listed. How many teams likely need a QB? Carolina, Buffalo, Cincy, Washington, Tennessee, Seattle, Arizona, Minnesota, Miami, San Francisco. A couple of others may need one, or are looking to the future. With no free agency, that creates a situation in which teams are going to jump up and grab one ahead of value. The only way I don't see Carolina taking Cam Newton, for example, is if they decide to bank on free agency. It's risky, and they'd likely be looking at trading NEXT year's picks for a QB this season like Kevin Kolb. That coupled with the business/marketing factor is why I've been so convinced Cam was the right choice for them, even if he's not worthy of #1 status. He makes too much sense for them from multiple standpoints. It'll be an interesting draft, some QBs will get taken ahead of where they should, but I think people are seriously overreacting when they say that every QB in the draft class save one will be out of the league or a backup in 3 years. Luck will come out next year. He's just finishing up his degree before entering.
The lack of FA and the CBA certainly are the "wildcards" this time around. A perfect storm of terrible teams and a lot of Qbs who are all there or thereabouts Seriously though you could make arguments for about 4 or 5 of that 6 as being the "best prospect" whereas its usually a choice of one or the other.
