Expect the Jets to trade down. Cooks, Beckham and Lee are very close. It really doesn't matter which one is drafted by the club. A switch with Cleveland or another team in the 20's would net a second rounder. Two seconds and they could get some top talent at CB or OLB. Don't be surprised if it happens.
First of all, I misspoke when I said "truly great". They are exceedingly rare. That was my point. I'm not sure that there's one in this draft worthy of being the BPA at #18 in the first round. I don't want the Jets to reach out of need. Clinton-Dix and Pryor are both good prospects, but I don't consider either of them bot be a true "ball hawking FS" or to have great "ball skills" and thus not worthy of the #18 pick. One of the first things that Rex said when he took the HC job with the Jets is that he wanted to create more TOs, yet they have continually drafted CBs and DBs who didn't have good ball skills, yet other teams have managed to find some with better ball skills than the Jets. Now before you rush to say that Rex didn't handle the draft, I'm not saying he did, but do think he has had more than a little input. IMO with the right pass rush, a ball-hawking FS is a greater weapon or tool than a FS who excels at coverage and vs the run, but doesn't have very good ball skills. The Jets need to create more TOs. That's what championship defenses do. That's why if the Jets are going to draft a FS prospect, I'd rather it be someone like Bailey, Vereen or the kid from Stanford (Reynolds?). When you say this draft looks deep right now, what do you mean exactly? Do you mean overall? At S? If the former, then I agree. If the latter, then I disagree. In fact, I don't think it's a very good draft for safeties at all. That's why I wouldn't be upset if the Jets didn't draft one at all or waited until the middle or lower rounds. I think even the better safety candidates aren't all that. The only safety I really like is Jimmy Ward, and unless we trade down, I don't think we have a very good shot at him.
We will definitely have to agree to disagree. I am not going overboard. LBers are the key to the middle of the defense, the middle of the field, stopping the run, and the transition from the shorter to longer pass routes. I think it's pretty much impossible to overvalue linebackers. Let me ask you a question...How old are you? I may be wrong, but it sounds as if you are younger than 30-35. If you were older than that, I don't see how you could possibly say that I was overvaluing the LB position. Our linebacking corps quite good? Sorry, but that makes me laugh. Pace is glacially slow. He's pretty good at setting the edge and because of the strength of the DL was able to get 10 sacks last season. Still, he leaves a ton of plays on the field. Replace him with a true OLB with some speed, and the number of hurried throws, sacks, and potential fumbles and interceptions increase exponentially. That would also lead to more stalled opponents drives and fewer points for opponents, and quite likely at least a couple more wins. Barnes is a situational pass rusher and is almost 90 years old. We aren't even certain if he will be able to return to form. Coples could get better or he could plateau. Even if I'm wrong and he proves to be a very good OLB for next 5-7 years, the Jets need someone on the other side of the field that can cover and generate pressure as well. Harris is slow and quite likely about to begin his last year with the team, or at least last season as a starter. Davis has speed, but hasn't demonstrated an ability to excel in coverage and hasn't made many big plays yet. I think our LB corps is mediocre at best. We don't have a single LB who can cover TEs or RBs over the middle. Our secondary is not completely broken. That's nonsense imo. Can it be upgraded? Most definitely. Even if you were right, as I said earlier, improve the pass rush signficantly, and the secondary becomes much less important. Any half decent QB was able to shred us through the air because we couldn't supply sufficient pressure to make him throw the ball more quickly. If the pass rush only allows the QB a couple of seconds, all he can do is throw short passes. Give any QB in the NFL 4-5 seconds to survey the field and throw a pass and I don't care if you have 4 HOF DBs in the secondary, he's gonna shred the D. Look it up. I've seen it numerous times over the years in articles. It's a well-known fact. I think it goes something like even the best DBs can only consistently cover receivers for something like 2.5 -3 seconds and then the coverage starts breaking down. A QB should have no more than 3 seconds to throw a pass, or should have to throw the ball away, scramble or take a sack. Sorry, but I think you see this issue totally backwards. That is not how defenses are supposed to work.
I mean the draft looks deep right now. As in, I have seen plenty of drafts that have been touted as strong, but end up not being strong. And teams over draft players early in the first when the real gems fall to the middle of the first or further. There will be at least 10 busts out JAGs in the first round of this draft, guaranteed. It happens pretty much every year.
Harris actually had a heck of a year, and for the most part, played really well. Maybe you are comparing him to Ray Lewis in his prime or something, but he s a very good player when judged against realistic expectations. And how would you "exponentially" improve from Pace who had 10 sacks? Do you know how many linebackers in the NFL had exponentially more than 10 sacks last year? Again, you can't possibly compare our secondary to our linebackers. Come on, now. Having watched the games, I can tell you that for the most part we generated decent pressure on opposing quarterbacks, not all the time of course, but we weren't horrible in that department or anything. If you check NFL team stats on NFL.com, we were 13th in the league in sacks. So from my perspective, it is your perspective that's backward. Most time, we were generating pressure, but the opposing QB was able to throw it a second or two before our guys got there, because our secondary gave their WRs a 10 yard cushion, or could not stay with them at all. The stats seem to support my view, as our passing yards allowed were 22nd in the NFL, much worse than our sacks.
This is my last post on this topic. It's not just about sacks. It's about forcing the QB to throw before he's ready and creating incompletions and interceptions. Improve the speed of the pass rush, and the QB doesn't have that extra 1-2 seconds to throw the ball. It's not rocket science. "Decent" pressure doesn't cut it. The elite Ds have killer pressure and that's how they get off the field on 3rd downs. You never answered my question about your age, either. Dollars to doughnuts you're in your teens or twenties. If you were older than 35, you'd know what I was talking about regarding LBs and their importance.
Was Seattle pass rush that fearsome this year? They had 44 sacks, we had 41. (and that was mostly from their D-Line, Bennett, not LBs). Baltimore won the Superbowl the year before without their stud pass rushing LB in the playoffs (Suggs injured). As far as my age, I didn't answer because didn't seem worth it to get into personal stuff. What's next, are we gonna compare IQs and resumes? We are just a couple of fans discussing stuff. I am actually in my 30s.
Having Cleveland overpay to move up to the 18 for a QB would be a wonderful scenario for the Jets. Say Bridgewater drops to 18 and the Browns offer the 26 and the 35 to jump up and grab him. That gives the Jets two shots at an excellent prospect and then the 49 to bring a 3rd prime add to camp. That's how you really accelerate the talent level on the roster.
that would be an interesting scenario - especially if one of the top 10 or 12 non-QB players are also there at 18. has to be a real sweet offer on the table for the jets to move back.
The problem with the scenario is that the Browns would probably try to jump up as high as the 11 or 12 with that combo of picks. There would have to be about 6 teams in front of the Jets saying no to the Browns before they'd get a shot at making the trade.
There have been trades by the 18 in every draft in the last decade, maybe longer. Somebody always thinks they can move up and profit and half the teams with a top 20 pick are willing to move down each year if the price is right. Somebody should do a tracker on where the teams that trade up and trade down wind up in terms of record in years one through five after the fact. Just going to list one trade each year to make the point: 2004 Eli Manning #1 to the Giants for Philip Rivers #4 and stuff 2005 Jammal Brown #13 to the Saints for # 16 and stuff 2006 Jay Cutler #11 to Broncos for #15 and stuff 2007 Darrelle Revis #14 to Jets for #25 and stuff 2008 49ers traded #7 to Patriots who traded it on to Saints for #10 and stuff 2009 Mark Sanchez #5 to Jets for #17 and stuff 2010 Bears traded #11 in to Broncos in Cutler trade who traded it on to 49ers for #13 and stuff 2011 Julio Jones #6 to Falcons for #26 and stuff 2012 Everybody traded with everybody, well not really but there were 6 trades in the top 7 and everybody but Luck got taken by a traded pick 2013 Dion Jordan #3 to Fins for #12 and stuff
That was then...I don't think you will see anything this year at all..there is no single player out there worth it with all the talent in this draft.
GGB can answer for himself, but I have to note that while you disparage the sack stat compared to the overall pass D stat, you offer no alternative support for your position. By that I mean that you imply the Jets were below average in the pass rush's speed, but present no evidence in support. I think that your implied point is far from clear. In any event your position implicitly assumes that some achievable increase in the speed of the Jets' pass rush would obviate the need to have anything more than a mediocre secondary. That adding rookies to the Linebackers would do more than using a high pick at Cb, safety or both. I think that is also far from clear. The Jets look set with their starting linebackers. That does not mean they are great or anything. Not at all. I just don't see them ready to bench Coples, Harris or Davis. Pace? He gets a lot of negative comments here, but they just decided to bring him back, after ten sacks. Yeah yeah yeah sacks aren't everything. They are something, though. Pace will be one of the starting linebackers on opening day ( barring injury). I can't say the same about the secondary, especially cb opposite Milliner. There is one obvious place the roster can be immediately upgraded with a single high draft pick.
Again, imo it's not just about sacks, although they can be important as sometimes they become strip sacks, which can lead to an immediate score or preventing the other team from scoring. It's about creating incompletions and interceptions because the QB is harried and rushed and can't step into his throws. As far as Seattle, they are pretty unique in a number of ways. The way they have become successful isn't all that common in the history of the NFL imo. Whereas due to his experience with Seattle, Idzik might seek to do things the exact same way, I hope that he won't blindly seek to copy their method. The Jets are different, with different needs, perspectives, and I hope he will use his intelligence and creativity to find the quickest and best way for the Jets to become a powerhouse. We disagree about the best way for him to do that. That's cool. For the record, I'd love to have a great secondary on the Jets too. The Seahawks built theirs with low round draft picks. The Jets have been trying to do it with first round draft picks and have failed. That is one way in which I'd love it if Idzik could emulate or copy the Seahawks and build a great secondary on the Jets by using mid and low-round draft picks rather than 1st round picks. I asked the age question, not to make it personal, but as a point of information or reference. Over the last 12 years or so of posting on Jets fan sites, I've learned that those under 30 have very different perspectives on the game, philosophies, understandings of the game, its history, etc. from older fans like myself (I'm 59 and will be 60 in a couple of months). That doesn't mean that younger fans are necessarily wrong and older fans right, although there are some times where that is the case. I was just seeking to understand and have a point of reference. It wasn't an attempt to put you down or be insulting. I'm truly sorry if you took it that way. As I said initially, we can just agree to disagree. No one ever said that all fans have to agree. If we all agreed there'd be no need for fan sites or if there still were fan sites, they'd be pretty boring if one person posted an opinion then everyone agreed and patted him/her on the back.
Have you spoken with MM and/or Rex? They might think very differently. They might love one of those three and think much less about the other two. We just don't know what they're thinking or looking for. They might even be happy with the WRs they have and plan on taking a CB, FS and OLB with their first 3 picks.
While that would be a wonderful bonanza of picks for the Jets, if they were to make that trade then they'd better be convinced of two things. One, that Geno is gonna develop into a very good to great franchise-caliber QB for them and be their starter for the next 10 years; and two, that Bridgewater isn't appreciably better. If they pass on Bridgewater and Bridgewater becomes a star and Geno falls flat on his face, Idzik will be a laughingstock, would deserve to be fired, and could possibly never work as a GM again.
