Pretty obvious it will be a receiver or corner that the Jets pick in rounds 1 and 2 based on the visits this week..it could be a smokescrean but I doubt it.
Yeah, I wouldn't reach too much, I would only focus on CB/FS as long as the player talent levels were reasonably close, if other positions are miles ahead in talent, you go for that, especially early on. This I don't agree with, I think we should focus more on which picks would make us better now as a team, rather than trying to balance offense/defense picks over the past several years. Regardless of who we picked previously, we still have a huge need at CB, with a lot of potential return on investment because of the rest of the defense being so good. Our LBs aren't elite, but I think all in all, they are a decent bunch. Coples was very dominant and disruptive in the 2nd half of last season, Pace was decent in my opinion, and other than covering TEs, our inside linebackers were pretty good too. With our D-line and if we can build up a good secondary, the linebackers don't have to do as much as on some other teams. I understand your reasoning, but I guess I just see it a little differently. I think realistically, we are not gonna draft 7+ impact players in a single draft, 2-3 seems more likely given our recent history. So to me, plugging 2 impact players into the secondary will pay huge dividends for us right away, because the rest of the defense is already so good. But even though they are, without a good secondary, we'll still be an average overall defense, just like last year, when we had one of the best front sevens in the league, but with a terrible secondary, ended up in the middle of the pack. Add in a quality CB and FS, and suddenly we could be one of those truly dominant defenses, and for a long time too, if things go our way. So the return on investment would be huge. Add the same 2-3 impact players to the offense, and yes , it's possible there will be a dramatic improvement, but also quite possible there won't be. We just don't know enough about Geno and many of these other players, so in my opinion it's much more of a crapshoot.
Walls was actually our best corner last season in terms of being able to play in space and stay with his WR. I was very impressed with his ability to do this. The problem was, for whatever reason, he wasn't able to contest the ball well, once it was thrown to his WR, so even though he was in the right place, the WR still often caught the ball. Maybe it has to do with bad vertical jump, or lack of proper hand technique, I am not sure. Wilson is just terrible in space. The reason he s sorta ok as a slot corner is because the ball is thrown so fast, Wilson can just run along known routes without having to stay with a WR in space, or to look for the ball, and even there he's a bit overrated I think. Just not a good pick for us. Everyone here is joking about his neck because when he runs behind a receiver, he literally never looks up, just looks at the receiver, and might be the only corner I've ever seen do that.
Without getting into Walls and his talent or lack thereof, comparing Milliner to Cromartie is inapt. Benching Milliner were teaching moments. Cromartie's issues were health related, and there was no lesson to teach him.
I would expect Wilson's defenders would disagree with your point about him, but that is for them to say. The question about Rex is not what he could do if he had to. The question is what he wants to do, and it is clear enough that he much prefers a D that is based on Cb's able to handle man coverage. So much of the flexibility of his defensive schemes derives from that ability. Why would it be better for Rex to be limited to fielding Cb's who can only be effective in zone coverage? I think I have a good idea of what Rex would say.
That was a great year for Manning, in the first game, before the end of the season and before Caldwell pulled him, Manning had beaten Revis and hit Wayne on a couple of intermediate routes.
We're totally in agreement on this first point. On this point, I totally agree on the bolded phrase, we'll just have to agree to disagree on the rest. While CB is an area of potential concern and there is need there, I don't see it as great, and certainly not greater than the needs at WR, TE, OLB, FS and even OG. "Decent LBs leads to an average or mediocre D much more than "decent" CBs. Until Coples puts together a strong season from start to finish, playing all 16 games and gets consistent pressure and a decent number of sacks, I will continue to think that he is miscast as an OLB and too slow. I totally disagree with your bolded statement. IMO the LBs are the heart and soul of any D, it doesn't matter what alignment they play. In a 3-4 alignment, that is even more the case. IMO Rex is the one with the problem in the way that he seeks to play a 3-4 D alignment. If he truly thinks that CBs are the most important position in his D and thinks that the OLB position is not that important, then I think he's just flat out wrong and stupid in the way he seeks to play it, and I want him fired sooner rather than later. I'm hoping that he just played that way because he had to find a way to win without a stud pass rushing OLB due to Tanny's failure to ever get him one. Stronger (better/faster) LBers will also be better against the run than DBs. Get a stud pass rusher or two to go along with our great DL and the Jets could have UDFAs at all 4 DB positions and it won't matter a whole lot, because the opposing team isn't going to be able to run the ball and their QB isn't gonna have time to consistently find open receivers. Improve the Jets' offense such that the Jets are often ahead, and that's even more true as opposing teams are forced to pass more in order to catch up, and the Jets front 7 can tee off on the opposing QB consistently. Who said anything about drafting 7+ impact players? That said, talking about our recent history makes no sense as we have a new GM, and an overhauled scouting dept. It could be worse, it could be about the same, a little better, or much better. We just don't know, so I don't think it's reasonable to try to make any assumptions based on what Tanny did or the old Scouting Dept. In addition, the team is different. Their needs are different and other teams in our division have changed. With regard to your bolded sentences, I totally disagree and we'll just have to agree to disagree. Milliner and Cro were pretty bad last season, they had the same safeties behind them, and the Jets' D, if I'm not mistaken, was still a top 10-15 D overall. Thus, adding two impact players to the secondary is not gonna make the team appreciably better imo. I don't care how great the DBs are, if the QB has 4-5 seconds to find an open receiver, he'll pick your D apart. If teams are able to run on us, they won't need to pass. If your offense can't stay on the field, and your D is continually on the field, no matter how good your starters are, they're going to wear down, get tired, and then not be able to get off the field and will give up points. It takes points to win games. If the Jets' offense can't score points consistently, it wouldn't matter if the Jets had the best D in the whole NFL, they're still gonna lose as much as they win. It also makes zero sense imo to continue to try to develop a young QB with few weapons to work with. If they don't help him develop by giving him some real weapons, then again, it's not gonna matter how great the D is, because Geno would likely fail, and then they'd be right back looking for another starting QB again. He may fail anyway, but since the QB position is THE most important position on any team, that should be the Jets' primary focus (doing everything they can to help Geno develop and succeed). IMO adding two impact players to the secondary won't help Geno one bit, but adding two impact receivers/playmakers (WR & TE) who give him additional options for moving the chains, scoring points, keeping opposing D's off-balance, keeping opposing offenses off the field, and then scoring points is what will have the greatest positive impact on this team.
I think that is the case, though. The FO has had five years to bring one in and even the draftniks have been convinced (up until this year) that we were always going to select an OLB high in the draft. We've had ample opportunity to either draft OLB or sign through FA and have never done so. The only thing I can think of that contradicts this are the alleged Rex soundbites relating to Demarcus Ware's release.
GGB, Interesting post. I agreed with the parts I did not quote, btw. And I largely agree with the parts I did quote, but the only caveat I have is that the O was so woeful last off season, that they need to spend attention to it in order to build for the future. To some extent they have done that, especially in the Decker signing. A related point is that adding talent, especially at wideout, has the benefit of either allowing Vick to run a more effective O, or to provide Smith with a clear test to either succeed or fail. If somehow the Jets do not go wideout with a first or second round pick I will first of all be surprised, but then I can expect as well that Smith's defenders will say he will not be given a fair enough situation to succeed in.
Can't see the Jets going high pick at OLB. They are bringing back Pace on one side, and while there may well be reason for skepticism about the move, moving Coples to the other side is not an experiment that has run its course. It was Rex's idea to do that, picking Richardson allowed them to replace a first round DL pick who moved to OLB with another, and there's no obvious role for Coples on the line in a 3-4 (obviously they can and will sometimes have him putting is hand on the ground in effectively a 4-3, but that is not the same). So, at this point I can't see the Jets changing the present direction at OLB.
Well supposedly, he wanted Brooks Reid a couple of drafts ago. He had a very good pass-rushing OLB with the Ravens. He's been around the NFL his whole life and has seen what stud pass-rushing OLBs can do. Unless he's just a moron, or got some crazy wild hair of an idea up his arse that he's obsessed with proving true, it just makes no sense that he would want to continue to try to do things the hard way, and try to find some way to generate a pass rush, when it can be so easily with a quality, fast OLB. Except for the draft a couple of years ago when Brooks Reed was drafted, the Jets really haven't been in a position to draft a quality OLB prospect since the year of the Gholston fiasco. In many drafts, there has been either no stud OLB prospect or only one who was drafted in the top 5-10 spots and the Jets had no chance at getting him without a Mike Ditka/Herschel Walker-esque trade up. If the Jets don't add a quality OLB prospect in this draft and instead take a CB or two, then I'm probably gonna want both Rex and Idzik fired. There are a number of decent to very good, if not great OLB prospects in this draft. If they don't take one, then Idzik better freaking draft several HOFers at other positions and find 6-7 quality starters out of this draft and fill all our other needs.
When I hear "truly great" and "ball hawking FS" in the same context, it makes me cringe. They are really hard to draft because they are rare and being great at that position means more between the ears than it does below the neck, sort of like great QBs. What is the criteria for "truly great", anyway? I have seen some FS play well for a couple of years but get exposed and kind of come back to the pack. In recent years the only ones I consider truly great are Reed and Polamalu, and they were taken 24th and 16th respectively, in drafts that weren't that deep in retrospect. This draft looks deep right now, but those two drafts did at that time as well. Killer free safeties are hard to come by, but it might be because most teams don't know how to find or develop them.
Totally agree with this scouting report. On many occasions last year he did everything right up until the point of the catch. The one thing I'll add is his patience at the LOS and route recognition; it's, dare I say it, almost Revis-like, especially his patience . He doesn't fall for all the okie doke moves that WRs like to throw at CBs to start their routes. What I like most about him, is that from the end of 2012 through last season, he seems to getting better each time I see him. It's interesting you mentioned his vertical jump as at his pro-day (was not invited to the combine) he posted #s comparable to a tier CB for all drills but the vertical jump. His vertical jump was noticeably low, 28 1/2 in.
I view the secondary situation as a question mark rather than a glaring hole. Idzik's whole mantra has been "competition" throughout his time here. That's exactly what we are gonna get w/ this group. Patterson/Wilson/Walls/Lankster/Dowling/Patrick & likely a draft pick or 2 dueling it out. Is it the way the secondary performed last year that is causing so much panic? Or is it more the typical whiners fixating on whatever glitch they clasp onto? You have to assume that Milliner is going to take off from his last 4 games. That's the normal progression for a CB of his caliber & frankly where he was drafted demands it. I find it comical that so many claim they would've felt much better if the team brought back Cromartie..especially those same folks who poo-poo the Patterson acquisition. Cro was toast for most of last year. His main skills are recovery speed & change of direction. Well age has dwindled his foot speed & he has a bad hip. You can't change direction if you can't flip your hips. Patterson while fragile hasn't lost his ability to cover. So why is this viewed as a downgrade? Has everyone forgotten how great Seattle's secondary looked last year? You do realize it was primarily assembled by day 3 draft picks in a similar competition emphasized setting? Sure having Earl Thomas at free safety helps..and maybe Pete Carroll is better at developing DBs. I don't know. But alot of the on field practices are the same. Aggressive, physical man-up coverage. Idzik was in that building for when that secondary was assembled. You don't think Seattle fans were panicking about their DB depth chart being laced with 5-7th rounders? One name I think that has gotten forgotten who could play apart in the solution at FS is Josh Bush. He's had a pretty quiet 2 years here. I don't know what others think about him but I've tried to zero in on him whenever he entered games/TC sessions I've attended. He has pretty good range, closes well & has really improved his physicality/tackling ability. For awhile he was competing w/ Allen for the 2nd safety spot in last year's OTA. When asked about Bush's role moving forward after losing out to Allen, Rex stated that he was better suited for the other safety spot & he wanted Bush to sit behind Landry to eventually assume the role of the secondary's "Quarterback". In other words making all the pre-snap adjustments & getting every one set.Now maybe that was a nice way of saying the guy stinks & isn't starting quality or maybe there is some legitimacy to it. He actually compliments Allen well & I think he is a superior athlete to Landry. Just something to consider. As for DBs in the draft. You can likely get a starting quality DB well into the 3rd round of this draft permitted there isn't some kind of crazy run. In fact, I think the value is better among the 2nd tier guys like Verrett & Mcgill than the 1st rounders Dennard & Gilbert. There is further depth at the position well into the7th round should the jets prefer another developmental type to solely compete early. Safety is alittle bit of a different story. There really isn't a definitive centerfielder in this draft unless you buy into the "HA HA" hype which I don't.Most of the others guy are in the box types who may offer range..but are not elite range rovers like the Jets really need. I'd expect the starting calibur safetiesto be gone by early round 3.
The Jets can go CB in the 2nd and some good options should be available. However this year especially it's about upgrading the WR position early with an instant impact guy like Cooks at 18.
Good post. Absolutely need to take a WR in Rounds 1-2 because historically this group will the Jets an 84% chance of getting an impact player. Rounds 1 and 2 are also important to get BPA at DB and OL.
I think you are overvaluing linebackers a bit. It's an important position of course, like any other, but let's not go overboard. In our defense, we don't really need linebackers to be great simply because our D-Line is so dominant. All 3 guys on it routinely command double teams, which means the linebackers are always free to make tackles in the running game, and have an easier time getting to the quarterback. Moreover, Pace got 10 sacks last season, and for half a season, Coples was up there with anyone in terms of being disruptive, and he gets a bit of a pass for the first half, since he moved to the OLB position and had an injury. So you can't really compare our secondary, which is just completely broken right now, to the linebacking core, which is not perfect, but is quite good. I am too lazy to look up where we ranked in defense last year, but having watched all the games, I can tell you that our defense overall was not very good, because of the secondary. The D-Line shut down the opponents running game almost on its own, but any half decent quarterback would just shred us through the air, and there was nothing they could do to stop it. If we don't improve the secondary (beyond Milliner's progression), it's gonna be the same story next season. If we can get another good CB and a FS, on the other hand, i belive the change would be dramatic, and we could easily end up being in the top 3 defenses in the league. The secondary and D-Line work off each other, and if the secondary is decent, it makes the quarterback throw slower, which in turn results in more sacks by the D-Line and OLBs, so a lot of times when we couldnt sack the qb last year was precisely because the secondary was just terrible, and the qbs would release so quickly. Give guys like Wilkerson, Coples, Pace and Richardson a few more seconds, and it's a completely different story.
^We gave up the most passing yards by any Jets team since 1986..that's probably all you need to know.
I will be happy with any combination of WR, TE and CB with the first 2 picks. Give me WR1 and CB2 or vice versa. Replace TE in either scenario and I will be thrilled...
