Everyone is dismissing the fact, that if TLaw is the greatest QB prospect since Elway and Manning, he's going to decide which team he wants to play for. Guess what Cowboys will be his first choice if they crack anywhere in the top 5. I know were are all Jets fans, and delusional thinking is kind based in our core ethos, but I'm at most 50/50 Lawrence even cares enough to play for the Jets. So anyone saying, trading the picks is silly, you're not factoring in this kid will be deciding which team he plays for and not the other way around - just how Elway and Manning (#1 and #2) did...
Catastrophic injuries due to unserviceable offensive lines are outlier events. They happen, yes, but not with enough frequency to base personnel decisions around. I think the Burrow injury is causing a lot of recency bias on this topic. The Jets offensive line is nowhere near the dumpster fire the Bengals offensive line is and it's likely to improve with Becton developing and JD investing more resources into it. I just think waiting to draft a QB until we have a perfect scenario for him is getting way too cute. Good teams are never in a position to get a QB unless they trade a TON of draft picks.
This is a very reasoned, and reasonable argument, but in the end I have to point to the rarity of being in a position to draft a QB this highly rated, not just in the Jets history which has happened really only twice, but across all teams. No doubt there will be other very highly rated QBs in the future, but historically there haven't been that many rated this highly, and who knows when the next one will arrive? And at that point, will the Jets be in a position to draft him? Not very likely given they've only ever drafted #1 twice before in 50+ years (since the merger), thus they would need to trade a huge number of valuable assets to get that chance. I agree that building a solid team first and then drafting your FQB increases the chances of success for that QB, and if it were a case of simply going out acquiring one at that point, I'd agree with this approach, but as I laid out above, this isn't how it works. There are things you can control - like building up the foundation of your team - and things you can't - like the opportunity to draft a generational QB talent. IOW, you can't generate opportunities, you have to seize them when they occur. That said, just because you seize that opportunity does not mean that you completely abandon building the foundation in the belief that this QB can make up for it. This is exactly what the Jets did with Sanchez and then with Darnold, neither of whom were as good as Lawrence seems to be. Is Douglas smart enough to know this? I believe he is, and wouldn't make this same mistake. There are two questions at this point is: is Lawrence truly a generational QB talent? From what I've seen and read, he seems to be but I haven't seen enough of him to say for sure. Some legitimate questions have been raised about how much of his success comes from being on a great team, and questions about his deep ball accuracy. And then there's the question: Is Fields as good or better, or perhaps a better fit for whatever type of offense the Jets plan to employ? If the answer to this second question is "Yes", then the Jets could "have their cake and eat it too". That would be my dream scenario. But if the answer is "No", I'd have to seize the opportunity and take Lawrence, and I would make sure Gase was gone so he couldn't screw him up.
On one hand people say this is once in a generation prospect, the next Patrick Mahomes. Then they say, "but nobody would trade that much for him". Has anyone here ever worked in sales and marketing? I think the term, "the next Patrick Mahomes" should be the go to expression this off season. I also like the phrase, "Would make any team an immediate Superbowl contender". To be honest my Jax example might be underselling how much bounty Kid Goldilocks could bring. Contact me for tips JD.
I’ll put my 2 cents in about this discussion. If we get the chance to draft Trevor we take him simple as that. More picks and all that won’t help us get a true generational talent at QB just like it didn’t help the Rams when the got that massive haul for RG3. Quarterback is the most important position in all of team sports. Not just football but ALL sports. You can’t pass that up for anything. Fields is not going to be a generational QB he’s going to be lucky to be a starter in 3-4 years. Saturday is a clear example that Ohio st QBs are busts at the next level because when they face legit Ds that apply pressure with good coverage and they don’t have all day to pass it to wide open receivers they struggle Lawrence won’t force a trade or go back to school he will go to the number one pick and in the 2021 draft whoever it is. The Eli and Elway situation are completely different from his and happened nearly 20 and 40 years ago. Eli had his Dad in his ear that SD is broke and won’t pay up. Elway had baseball with the Yankees and didn’t want to go to a team with a drunk owner that was going to move the team in the middle of the night. If Burrow didn’t pull that card last year it won’t happen again.
1) It would cost more picks for us to trade up later because we would be a lot better as a team and would drafting lower, maybe much lower, than a team trading up this year. IMO no team would be able to afford to trade up for a prospect like Lawrence from the bottom one-third of the round, maybe bottom one-half, which is where I think we would be with the right HC, and a slew of draft picks in 2021 and 2022. This year, I think it would be a team in the top 5, maybe top 10 trading up. They'd have to pay a premium for Lawrence, but less so since their draft position was higher. 2) You have a bit of a point, but imo it only matters how much quality is on the offensive side of the roster during a QB's first 2-3 seasons. The defensive side of the roster is basically irrelevant in helping the QB to develop. We already have our LT and #1 WR, and an excellent slot. If we add a couple of quality OL, a TE, another quality WR, and a starting RB between FA and the draft in 2021, and the QB has that quality offensive roster. 3) Again, I don't know why you insist on continuing to state #3. We're all agreed that if things remain the status quo, that nothing, no player will help that much. Things aren't going to stay the same. Gase is getting fired. We'll have a new HC, CS and offensive system. We'll have an upgraded OL and additional playmakers. I'm confident in that.
Its easy to just keep saying "wrong". Can you explain where you feel I am mistaken? What is TL's trade value to you? No wait. What would a rookie Patrick Mahomes trade value be...in your opinion?
If the Jets were all set at the QB position for the next ten seasons, then fine, go ahead and trade the overall #1 for a king's ransom. The reality is the Jets have an extreme amount of uncertainty at the QB position with Darnold (inconsistent and not exactly durable to this point), and finally have a chance to reel in a QB who may hang around for more than just a few mediocre years. This generational talent label is more of a marketing myth, than anything else. There are many talented players who come around in all generations, however, that does not mean they all will be properly developed and put into an ideal position to succeed. All just speculation at this point, since you cannot formulate a concrete personnel strategy until the draft positions are finalized. Another position which has been overshadowed by this winless/#1 pick thingy is Tight End. Along with QB, this is another position which needs to be addressed on a priority basis.
We were set at QB for the next 10 seasons with Mark Sanchez. We were set at QB for the next 10 seasons with Sam Darnold. We've been set at QB for the next 10 seasons a few times over the last 10 seasons.
We were NEVER set at QB with Mark Sanchez. Sorry, but that's just delusional. We weren't set with Sam, either. We had hopes, but we were not set.
What you are saying would be 100% accurate if fan talk was in some way relevant to reality. Neither Sanchez nor Darnold ever demonstrated they were that guy. For that matter Trevor Lawrence falls into the same category - conversation on these boards notwithstanding.
Are you ill or something? I have never used the term 'wron' once. The last post was a thing people like to call a bit of banter, I'm chuffed you think me clever enough to have that term so easily to hand in my mind though A rookie Mahomes was worth the 12th pick in the draft and a year (bar 1 game) sitting learning. So he wasn't worth all those picks you're claiming. Of course, if you're playing the retrospective game I'd say a lot of teams would have been interested. But would they trade the farm for him and then leave themselves unable to draft him some talent to play with as that is what your fantasy entails?
I don't want to bicker over personal things with you KOB but you keep implying I'm ill. It might be banter but its also being used to discount the points I'm trying to make. I'd rather you challenge them with informed debate. Also its a little puzzling to me if you think I was referring to Mahomes trade value before the draft - a draft in which Mitchell Trubisky was taken 7 picks before him. I don't think you have a serious interest in answering the question but I'll try one more time and be direct. As of right now, what to you consider the high end is for TLs trade value in draft picks?
What informed debate? It won't happen, not one team will cough up what you suggest no matter how much you bang on about it. I also said I would take your deal if it was offered not that you acknowledged that part of my post btw. I think you have answered your own question with the Trubisky inclusion, this is why teams will not cough up what you proposed for the chance TL will be more Trubisky than Mahomes, If you can't understand why I used Mahomes before his draft rather than retrospectively then what can I say? It was fairly obvious tbh. But to help you along it makes the scenario equal, ie TL is about to be drafted looking full of promise with talk of generational talent, Mahomes pre-draft was not talked about like that, so he got picked 12th, possibly KC traded up to grab him I can't remember now and I really can't be arsed to go and look because if they did trade up for him they didn't give up 58 number 1 picks and 34 2nds or whatever fantastical numbers you put up for the Jets to trade away the number 1 pick. It is unrealistic, is that informed enough for you? ps also not sure I heard people saying he was the next Mahomes more like the next Andrew Luck as a generational talent, you see Mahomes wasn't thought to be one of those pre-draft.
Suck for Sam started a year before Sam was drafted. Same with T.L. Is T.L that much better of a prospect? Because Sam was a cant miss, franchise saving qb. The draft especially with QBs is high risk. That's why personally I try to keep Sam, trade the top pick to accelerate our rebuild. 1 possible Franchise QB vs 3 possible starters in other positions of need. We dont have a Pass Rusher, need help at CB, Oline, RB, WR... I would like to fix other areas of need and build around Sam. I do think he has hig upside still but possibly injury prone. Again its risky either way but I think the damage is much higher if T.L turns out to be a bust
This is not an accurate representation of the situation. There was debate about whether Darnold or Mayfield should go first all the way up until the draft, and neither was considered a can't miss prospect. They were the two consensus best prospects in the draft but neither one was drawing Manning or Luck comparisons. There's the risk of TL or any QB prospect busting but there's also the risk of never having a top QB which basically guarantees you won't compete for a Super Bowl.
To answer your question, yes, TK is that much better a prospect than Sam. Sam was not thought to be a generational QB. He had turnover issues, fundamentals issues, played in the weak PAC-12, and his team wasn't very good. Lawrence is considered a generational QB and doesn't have any of those negative issues. Keeping Sam and not drafting Lawrence or another QB, would be the worst possible thing Douglas could do. It would probably prevent Douglas and the Jets from hiring a quality HC candidate and would doom the Jets to failure when Sam yet again got injured or hoof and mouth disease and missed games, and was wildly inconsistent when he did play. Have you not watched him play or seen his ranking and statistics? A topnotch franchise QB is worth more than 3 starters at other positions. Neither pass rusher, nor CB, nor OL, nor WR, nor RB matter if we don't have a QB that's worth a darn. The damage would be much higher if TL turns out to be a bust, but not only is that not very likely, but is a cowardly way to look at the draft. You can't win anything playing it safe and conservatively. You have to take risks in order to be great. You have to be aggressive and go for it.
