That's the sad thing. It's been common knowledge for years that past Jets GMs thought they were smarter than other GMs, or they got greedy, or thought that we'd have a chance to get another QB and that getting S or DT was more important. Some Jets fans just don't learn. They either forget Jets history or can't see that we've been down this road many times before, and they're wanting the Jets to make the same dumb mistakes as previous GMs have.
7. Hole in Trevor's game? Interesting take on Lawrence from June Jones, the former NFL coach and offensive guru: Although he called Lawrence "a superior athlete playing quarterback" and "a great leader," he wondered about his long-ball accuracy and suggested his completion percentage (71%) is inflated because of so many screen passes. "The only question is, how accurate is he on throws down the field?" said Jones, who has an instructional video on CoachTube.com. "He has tremendous receivers at Clemson with size and completes passes down the field, but a lot of times on the film I've watched, the receivers make some great catches on balls that are there but not right on the money." Full schedule » | Standings » • Depth charts for every team » • Transactions » | Injuries » • Football Power Index rankings » More NFL coverage » The numbers support his opinion. Before this weekend, Lawrence was 10-for-29 (35%) on passes of at least 20 air yards, which ranked 63rd in the country, per ESPN Stats & Info data. In case you're wondering, Ohio State's Justin Fields was 8-for-11 (73%).
Thanks for posting this. No QB is perfect. I figured that Lawrence had a hole or flaw somewhere. Now the question is how bad is this flaw, and is it fixable? Not all offenses depend on a lot of deep passes. If it's something that will continue to be a problem for him, then the Jets need to have an offense that features more short-to-medium range passes, and probably one that gets the ball out quickly. He has the arm strength and work ethic to improve upon that. Just the threat of hitting an occasional deep pass could be enough to keep opposing Ds honest, particularly if the Jets have a HR threat at RB and WRs who are great at getting yardage after the catch and who can turn a short pass into a long TD. That will still force opposing Ds to keep safeties deep.
McCown outplayed Sam prior to his rookie year with virtually the same team too. You give him the rookie pass for that one but it's still telling unfortunately.
I think Fields has a higher ceiling but Lawrence has a higher floor. Lawrence definitely needs to improve his long game. He's much better up the seams and sustaining drives/moving the chains than he is at hitting the big play. To be fair to Lawrence most of the deep plays I see them trying to hit seem to be straight 9 routes rather than deep overs/crossing routes which are higher percentage throws.
Sometimes I feel like we could all brush up on stats and data analysis 101 here. I see lots of people citing outliers as examples of proving a rule. Do some teams find franchise QB's late in the draft? Yes, but it's extremely uncommon and much rarer than getting a franchise guy with a top 10 pick. Will there be other great QB's after Lawrence? Yes, but it's highly unlikely the Jets will be in as good a spot to get one as they are this season. The Jets will either have to have another remarkably bad season (which again, is rare in the NFL) or trade a boatload of picks to move up in the draft to get one. This is our shot - being in the situation we're in with such a good QB prospect being available during the same season we are historically bad is EXTREMELY rare. We can't act like we'll be here again just because we're a bad team. We've been a bad team for a decade and have never been in this spot with a true #1 prospect before. Also seeing lots of cherry picking stats for Sam and others. All else equal, you will get the most reliable and accurate data from looking at the largest sample size possible. Tired of hearing about Sam's stretch of decent games in 2019. Not to say they didn't happen, but to base your analysis of him on only those games instead of his entire career is crazy. It's a blatant attempt to warp stats to support a point instead of just being neutral and thinking what the bulk of the evidence indicates you should think. If we get the #1 pick we should take Lawrence without hesitation. I'm not nearly as high on Fields but we should probably take him if we pick #2. Sam is one of the worst QB's in the NFL. Not my opinion, it's a literal fact when you consider his entire career and what the evidence shows. And no, we didn't "ruin" him. He has the same problems that he did in college. Also, if Lawrence or Fields don't work out it doesn't invalidate any of this. Being a great QB is very hard and it's very rare to get guys who can do it. But by far your best chance of doing so is being in a position to take the top prospect.
Thanks for the info on Couch. I didn't realize his OL was so bad and that he had taken such a pounding. You are making the same mistake as Ouchy. Your thinking is that the only additional player of quality that Douglas will add is Lawrence, and the rest of the team will continue to suck. That's irrational, particularly following the stellar draft that Douglas just had in April, the amount of draft picks that he has to work with in 2021 and 2022, and the amount of cap space that he has to work with in 2021.
And this is what really concerns me about everyone dubbing him the "Messiah". This flaw was one of Darnold's - and remains one. Maybe Lawrence's footwork and mechanics are better than Darnold's and he can learn to improve on this, but most QBs with this problem don't really improve much. I'd say this reason enough to pump the brakes on the TL Train.
I'm not certain at all that the Bills would be 7-3 with Sam at QB. If he hasn't learned basics in three years of working with Jordan Palmer, what makes you think he'd learn them with Dorsey and Daboll? JD could trade down, but I'll be shocked if he does. For starters, if he passes on Lawrence and Lawrence goes on to a HOF career, that will always be an albatross around JD's neck and a huge negative mark. He might not even keep his job another year or two. Second, he doesn't have to trade down to continue to fix the OL. I'm sure that he has been disappointed in the play of the OL. That doesn't mean that JD made mistakes in who he signed. If it's true that he had a limited budget to work with in this year's FA, then he did as well as he could. Secondly, it's up to the OL Coach, the OC and HC to get them to play well. Not having mini-camp, OTAs and preseason definitely hurt the OL, but I think that the OL Coach, OC and HC have done a pretty lousy job as well. Third, JD could sign a starting OG in FA, Clark could prove to be a solid starter, and/or JD can draft a starting OG in 2021. He could also draft or sign a FA RT that's better than Fant. Fourth, the Jets already have 9 draft picks this year and 7 next year (including two 1st round picks each year. If he trades down this year for a bevy of picks, in four-five years he could have serious problems trying to re-sign everyone. Daboll should be one of the top candidates and is one of my favorites for the HC job, but just because he has worked very well with the Bills and Allen, doesn't mean that he would with the Jets' new HC and Lawrence or Fields.
While it can be fixed, up to a point, I wouldn't expect him to become a pinpoint passer either. And this is a real concern for me. One of the things that I saw in Mahomes that convinced me he would be great was his accuracy, whether in the pocket or on the move, regardless of arm angle. That's the type of QB that I want. I didn't see the Chargers game, but from what I've heard, accuracy is what makes Herbert special. To me, this flaw is enough to make me want to bypass Lawrence. Maybe Fields is a lot more accurate, and if so he'd be my choice, or if not him, then I'd certainly entertain a trade back to acquire more premium picks and either find that accurate QB in a lower pick or round, or wait for a future draft.
Spot on! Thank you. It's amazing to see posters citing outliers as proof of some idea that they have. They also are forgetting recent Jets history. Mac didn't take Mahomes or Watson because he had Hackenberg, and now they are wanting Douglas to pass on Lawrence and Fields and roll with Sam. It's simply unbelievable. It's like some of our posters want the Jets to continue to suck. They are totally blind to see how they're willing to make the same dumb mistakes that Mac made. What real good does it do to pass on Lawrence, trade down for a bevy or picks, and then in a year or two have to give up even more draft picks for the Jets to be able to trade up to get a QB that isn't as good or as much of a sure thing as Lawrence is? That would create draft classes where we got little or nothing, and that leaves holes in a roster just like all of Tanny's trading up did. Some of our posters would fail logic, history, or data analysis. Some of the same posters who criticized Mac for passing on Mahomes and Watson are advocating passing on Lawrence. Sadly, some of those advocating passing on Lawrence and trading down, have justified Mac's passing on Mahomes and Watson, yet had no problems burning 4 draft picks to get Sam. It's lunacy! The reality is that everyone has an opinion, but some people's opinions aren't based in facts or knowledge.
No one said that Lawrence isn't accurate, only that his accuracy on deep throws appears to be lacking.
That's a serious flaw IMO. I set that concern aside when we drafted Darnold in the hope that it wasn't as big a problem as it turned out to be. If Lawrence is accurate on all other passes, and this is his only problem, then it can be minimized by good play design and play calling - but if we still have Gase that isn't going to happen. Even if Gase is gone, there's no assurance that the next HC/OC will adjust to Lawrence's strengths, although that should be a requirement for the job. As I said, what made me certain that Mahomes would be great was his uncanny accuracy, even more than his arm strength. This combination - accuracy and arm strength - was what made Namath great as well. All that said, you don't necessarily need a great, HOF, QB to win a SB, although that certainly helps - a lot. So if Lawrence is simply near-great, and better than anyone since Namath, that would be a major upgrade.. But accuracy is a critical success indicator, and I'd like to find out more about Lawrence in this regard before I go all in on him. I do agree that being in a position to draft a talent like him (or Fields) is a rare occurrence, even for an historically bad team as the Jets, so passing up on either of them is not something I would do lightly. My own preference is to take TL with the 1st pick if they get it, but I've just been pointing out that there are other options that bear consideration, and also that Douglas may well decide to go for "quantity over quality".
Darnold's problem is that he's so inaccurate everywhere and makes such poor decisions that the coaches don't even feel comfortable letting him throw deep/intermediate in the first place. Lawrence is extremely accurate on short and intermediate passes. Ideally he would be more accurate on deep balls as well but I think that's significantly less important than being deadly accurate over the short-mid range. Most high profile offenses in the NFL get the vast majority of their yards on short and intermediate throws.
I agree with all that you say, especially the bold. It is something to take note of and monitor during the scouting process. If he's accurate with his other passes, is a quick processor, reads defenses well, makes good decisions, doesn't turn the ball over, and is a great leader, I can live with shaky accuracy on deep throws. I've seen Clemson play a lot over the last two years, but not at all this year. I don't know what kind of offense that Clemson runs, but it may be that he isn't called to throw that many deep passes, although I remember his throwing some deep to Tee Higgins that were accurate. The thing with Sam is that he struggles with accuracy everywhere and his mechanics have gotten worse, not better. Lawrence's mechanics look to be pretty solid. If Gase is back, as we've both said several times, nothing matters, and we won't care, because we won't be here or following the Jets any more. If Douglas goes for quantity over quality, I won't be happy at all, and will lose most of all the trust and faith I have in him. If he gets to make the new HC hire and hires the right guy, and has a great FA and draft, then I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and see what happens, but I really can't see that happening (his going for quantity over quality).
I guess to sum up my current position: I prefer they take Lawrence if they can, or Fields as a "consolation prize", and would be disappointed if Douglas goes the "quantity over quality" route, but as long as they get rid of Gase and really focus on building up the "O", I'll hang in there.
Ouchy and I are on the same page here-- it's not that Douglas won't draft anybody else or sign some free agents, it's that this roster needs not 5 or 6 more players, or even 10-15, but somewhere around 37-40. Lawrence, Becton, Mims, Maye, Q, and Mann, plus maybe one or two of the other rookies will be legit NFL starters. Franklin-Meyers, Davis, Crowder, Cashman, Perine, Phillips, and Fatukasi are backups or bit-players on a real NFL roster. Is Douglas going to bring in 37 free agents? Even if he does, how long can that possibly hold together?
Let's not get carried away. The team absolutely does not need 37 new players to compete. How does any team get a franchise QB other than drafting one? They're never available in free agency and never get traded. If we don't pick a QB now we'll just end up mortgaging a bunch of draft picks to reach for one in the future. The draft picks are gone either way. We wouldn't "save" the picks by trading down this draft, we'd just be getting a bunch of picks this draft in exchange for trading a bunch of them in a future draft. I think that's the pragmatic way of looking at things, at least. What are the chances that there's a season in the future in which both of these things are true: 1. We are the worst team in the NFL 2. The best QB prospect in multiple years is available I think it's pretty unlikely. This year is our chance.
I agree with this entirely. I'm saying the odds of success are better by using the picks now to build a good roster, then trading future picks to get a star QB at the top of a future draft, as opposed to grabbing the QB now, and wasting time/risking injury by putting him on a shit team. That's all I'm saying--a superstar QB is obviously the most important player on the field--I'm not arguing that at all. I'm arguing that if we are going to get one, maybe we should take care of it. I feel like I'm trying to explain to some crackheads that if they spend their lotto winnings on a massive TV, it's just going to get stolen, because they have no doors or windows on their crackhead trailer.
