Well I still haven't seen enough film, especially the in-depth breakdown videos of Lawrence to say for sure if I think he's as good as some say. I can say, that if he's as good as I thought Mahomes was, I would stick with the pick and take him. But if he's somewhere between Mahomes and Darnold, I agree with the plan of trading the pick for a king's ransom. I also think that Douglas might well trade the pick in any case...hard to know.
It doesn't ignore anything. There are always exceptions to any norm. Tom Brady was a 6th round pick. He is an anomaly. Just because some lower round QBs turn out to be great doesn't negate the wisdom in drafting a QB early.The only one of those who was truly a great QB was Steve Young. The others played well for a year or so, but most of their careers, they were mediocre or worse. That can't be all blamed on their situations, either. Some of it was that they were late bloomers or didn't put it together earlier. Every guy you mentioned started immediately and had the opportunity to succeed and didn't.Testaverde was dumb and never learned from his mistakes until Parcells forced him to play with discipline. Of that group, David Carr is the only one I feel any sympathy for. Couch, Testaverde, and Bartkowski all had their opportunities. Bartkowski suffered a lot of sacks. I wasn't a Falcons fan, so I don't know or remember if he held the ball too long or if their OL was truly that bad. He still passed for a lot of yards, but his completion percentage was only north of 60% from 82-85. Tim Couch's career was only 5 years. Why was it so short? I don't remember. I remember that he was a disappointment after the draft hype, but he played pretty well. Plunkett started for the Patriots, then the Niners and finally the Raiders. For most of his career, he sucked. His completion percentage was in the 40s or 50s. Only two years of his career did his completion percentage go over 60%. In fairness, maybe the offensive system their teams utilized maybe didn't fit their talents (square pegs/round holes) or maybe their receivers sucked. Douglas knows that this is a QB-driven league. He knows how poorly Sam has played, what his flaws are. By the time of the draft, he will have a pretty good idea of what the relative strengths and weaknesses are of Lawrence, Fields and the other QBs in the draft. He will know that Lawrence is the consensus #1 pick and is thought to be a generational QB prospect. I trust that he will do what is right. If we have the #1 pick and he agrees that Lawrence is the best QB and a generational QB, he should take him. Conversely, if he thinks that Lawrence is over-hyped, and that neither Lawrence, nor Fields are all that, then he needs to follow his instincts and the work of his scouts and either trade down for a bevy of picks, or stay put and take Chase or Sewell. Either way, he'd better be right, or nothing will improve with the Jets and his career will be short-lived. Similarly, if Douglas is able to hire or lead the hiring of the new HC, he should hire the candidate whom he thinks is both the best HC candidate AND who has the right offensive philosophy for Lawrence if he plans on drafting Lawrence. He shouldn't hire a HC who will have a system that Lawrence won't fit (if there is such a system), unless he thinks Fields is the better prospect and Fields will fit that HC's offense. I respect you and your opinion, I just think you're misguided on this one issue.
I agree with this post. True, we are a below average team right now. Becton is an All Pro-caliber LT. Mims is a rising star. Crowder is a very good slot WR. With a new HC, Lawrence, a FA starting OG and WR, and a WR, TE, RB and OG added in the draft, and we could suddenly have a very good offense and be very competitive. Douglas could also add an Edge or a #1 CB instead of one of the other positions I listed and the team be much better. Things can turn around quickly. The only way I see that things won't turn around is if Gase is still the HC or if the Johnsons insist on hiring the new HC and not allowing Douglas to make the hire. With all the draft picks we have and cap space, and with the job that Douglas did in this draft, I believe the Jets will be a very good team in 2022 and afterwards, unless somehow he suddenly stops being able to spot talent or forgets everything he learned in Baltimore, Philly and Chicago. The thing is, you assume that Lawrence would be joining the same team that we have today, and he wouldn't be. Douglas has the cap space to sign 2-3 new starters, and has 9 or 10 other picks in the draft after Lawrence to improve the roster. A new HC and CS (if Douglas is able to make the hire and makes the right hire, which I trust him to do if given the opportunity), will be more flexible, will adapt to the talent we have on hand, and in fact, will have an offensive system that fits Lawrence, and the team will be built around Lawrence.
If we trade Lawrence, then who are we going to get to play QB? It isn't like there's going to be a better QB prospect coming along.
This logic makes no sense. If Lawrence isn't so good that he's worth trading for multiple picks draft him, but if he is, trade him? In what universe does that make sense? I'll tell you...NO UNIVERSE. No amount of picks is worth giving up an elite QB for. The Jets will have a solid foundation with Becton, Mims, Crowder, Q. Williams, Davis, Hall, Lawrence, Fatukasi, Franklin-Myers, Maye, and possibly a few others. Add in the players that Douglas will add in FA and the draft other than Lawrence, and we should have a very solid foundation and be on our way to a very good team. You keep posting as if the roster wouldn't change other than Lawrence, and that's just not reality.
I'm not opposed to drafting Lawrence, but I don't buy this idea that there won't be a good QB prospect in future drafts. Lawrence's successor at Clemson is highly regarded and expected to be a 1st round pick when he declares in a few years. We could do what the Chiefs did in 2017 and trade up for him or someone else when the roster should be in better shape than it is now.
I don't know. Maybe Darnold. Maybe they sign a FA. We don't know what a future draft class might offer in a year or two. I'm not saying this is what I prefer, but if Lawrence isn't the slam dunk everyone says, then taking a boatload of prime picks for him might be the better long term way to go.
I'm sure there will be a great QB in a future draft, but the odds that we're the team to get him will be very small. This isn't the time to overthink things; just take the superstar prospect and call it a day.
Look at the Super Bowl winners. How many of them had a boatload of prime picks? How many of them had a superstar QB? There are never any guarantees in the draft, but the odds that Lawrence will be a superstar QB without the benefit of hindsight are higher than you'll get out of virtually any other prospect, let alone one we may have the rights to.
Maybe. Frankly I've always said that a superstar QB is the primary target, but...it's hard to know who really is a superstar. I'm no expert. Based on my experience of watching football for decades, and doing a lot of film watching, I came to the certainty that Mahomes was such a QB. I haven't seen enough of Lawrence to say that yet, but if he's that good, then yes, take him and run. Of course the other wildcard in all of this is whether Gase is still the HC. If he is, all bets are off, and frankly, I won't be paying any attention.
Just for your reference: Bruce Arians on Tim Couch (Arians was Cleveland's OC 2001-2003, after serving as the QB coach in Indy since 1998): "He wasn't a bust. He was a guy who got the ever living shit beat out of him and had Kevin Johnson as his most reliable WRs, no running game and one of the worst nfl offensive lines ever assembled. We ruined him. And then Butch took him by his beat up body and shook every last bit of confidence out of him." To me, it sounds like the Jets' next OC speaking to us in 20 years' time about Lawrence....
For what it's worth I really dislike Arians as a coach/coordinator. His quarterbacks usually have inflated turnover numbers because he's insistent on throwing the ball down field. They're inherently lower percentage passes and will cause more sacks/fumbles. He's overrated in my eyes and I think he's kind of a douche. Now that you know I don't like him - he might be right on Couch. I don't think the coach makes the player or the player makes the coach. It lives somewhere in the middle. Situations matter. But players at quarterback can elevate their situation more than any position in sports outside of a generational talent in basketball or maaaaaybe a goalie in hockey. The NFL made a concerted effort when they got a glimmer in their eyes over what Peyton Manning was doing in the early to mid 2000's and realized how much money they could make if they had ten of him around the league. All the illegal contacts and holdings that extent drives over literally a harmless hand check on a slot receiver away from the play, roughing the passer calls that would make Ken O'Brien laugh. That's why you don't pass on the generational prospect. Your best chance at sustained success is to get the guy that will keep you competitive and fighting in each game in the 7-9 to 9-7 range and hope to continue to surround them with talent so you can gear up for a SB run every couple years.
A lot of interesting points made in this thread as well as others regarding the future of the QB position. Two things keep coming back to me: 1. Going into this season, there was not a Jet fan on this forum, nor a NFL pundit who believed that Josh Allen was a better quarterback than Sam Darnold. Yet, here we are. The glaring difference is that one is being developed by Brian Daboll and Ken Dorsey, while the other is being developed by Adam Gase and Dowell Loggains. One player has taken two steps forward while the other has taken two steps back. That is not coincedence. Put Sam on the Bills and they would be 7-3; Allen on the Jets and they are 0-10. Can't prove it obviously, but it's what my gut tells me. I know many of you must have come to the same conclussion. 2. WWJD? What would Joe do? I keep thinking back to Joe's promise to Sam's parents to protect their son. It's clear from his press conferences that he expected better performance from this revamped Oline and feels he personally fell short on his promise. How does that affect his decision making going forward? WWJD? I would not be one bit surprised if Joe "stays the course" by trading out of the first or second pick for a haul and continues to build on both sides of the ball. I would expect that the Jets won't exercise Sam's 5th year option and use year 4 to see where they (and he) stand. If Sam pans out, negotiate at that point. If they part ways, look for a QB in the 2022 draft when you have protection and weapons already in place. P.S. - If Joe has any say on the future of the HC spot, Draboll is my guy.
I like a superstar QB as much or more than anyone, but I have to say I suspect you're right about Douglas's plan.
Outside of Jets forums, there were a lot of people going into this season who thought Allen was better than Sam. And I don't think the Jets would be 0-10 with Allen; he would have beaten the Broncos, Patriots, and Chargers. (Though in all fairness, that's 2020 Allen, not necessarily what would have happened if he had Bates and Gase coaching him for the previous two seasons.) Also, Flacco outplaying Sam should be evidence enough that we need to move on.
Maybe.... but we'll see. Very possible Lawrence ends up being a star QB with a long fantastic career. Saying Darnold is trash and a colossal mistake though. I just feel like that is more than a little harsh. I've seen him make some very nice throws. And playing under hideous conditions I've seen him look better than McCown 3 years ago, the backups last year, and Flacco this year. Flacco and McCown aren't the best QB's the NFL has ever seen but they certainly aren't trash either. I still think he's got potential to be the best Jets QB in years. I also feel that if you threw Lawrence into those same games under those same conditions since Gase has taken over the results would have been just the same. I truly believe you'd STRUGGLE to improve the results by 10 or 15%. Get Sam some help. And if you DO draft Lawrence for god's sake get him some help too. And I define "help" as new coaching staff, all the rest of the premium draft capital on the offense, and maybe even some free agent dollars to boot. If you draft Lawrence and do any less than that? We're all effed. Lawrence too lol!
