Breaking down Sanchez's accuracy issue - ESPN Fantasy

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by Jetfanmack, Aug 20, 2011.

  1. Miamipuck

    Miamipuck New Member

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    You know you can get perma-banned for posting false news. We all know this isn't possible, the Jets cut Woodhead.
     
  2. nyjunc

    nyjunc 2008 TGG Bryan Cox "Most Argumentative" Award Winn

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    It's not an accuracy problem, he's an accurate passer, it is a comp % problem. 2 very different issues.
     
  3. Hobbes3259

    Hobbes3259 Well-Known Member

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    NO. Schotty is :rofl:
     
  4. Big Blocker

    Big Blocker Well-Known Member

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    Whether MS can raise his accuracy and completion percentage is the key to the season. That pretty much covers it.
     
  5. abyzmul

    abyzmul R.J. MacReady, 21018 Funniest Member Award Winner

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    I think the weakest part of Dirty's game for the past 2 seasons has been executing precision short plays like screens and quick outs. His timing sucked and he never fooled the defense. If he gets better in that department alone, I think he's a second tier QB for 2011.
     
  6. Organized Chaos

    Organized Chaos Well-Known Member

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    Does anyone have a passing chart for sanchez last season? I haven't been able to find one.

    I recall looking at a passing chart during his rookie year, and he was having trouble with the short passes and I still remember him blowing a few last season as an above commenter mentioned. QB's shouldn't miss little dump offs or screen passes. That is very fixable, and considering the improvement from year 1 to year 2...I'd expect Sanchez to be even better this season.

    I was looking at Sanchez's stats yesterday. It's amazing that people think this guy is a "game manager". As the ESPN article says, he was 9th in attempts, and he had a few games last season where he was throwing the ball 35-40+ times! That isn't what a game manager does.

    For reference, the top 6 QB's in the NFL have a completion percentage above 65%. The top 20 are above 60%.

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/completionPct

    What really kills Sanchez is that he is streaky. He can put together a pretty damn good game.

    EX:

    VS NE in the playoffs 16 of 25 for 194 yards 3 TDs. (64% comp percentage)
    VS PIT in the playoffs 20 of 33 for and 2 TDs (60% comp percentage)
    VS CLE 27 of 44 for 299 yards and 2 TDs 1 int (61% comp percentage)
    VS NE 21 of 30 for 220 yards and 3 TD's (70%! comp percentage)

    But his bad games are incredibly fucking awful:

    VS MIA 17 of 44 216 yards and 1 int (38% comp percentage)
    vs BALT 10 of 21 for 74 yards (47% comp percentage)
    vs GB 16 of 38 for 256 yards and 2 ints (42% comp percentage).

    Sanchez isn't a game manager as so many non-jet fans mistakenly assume based on his rookie season and Rex's repeatedly screaming "GROUND AND POUND!". Nor is Sanchez a widely inaccurate Quarterback in every game. He is simply a streaky Quarterback at this point in his career.

    He can put up good numbers against good defenses. He can complete 60%+ of his passes in a game and throw for multiple touchdowns. He can make every throw on the field, including the deep ball. But his bad games are just awful.

    Now, I've seen plenty of QB's have bad games as we all have. Usually it's based on matchups (Pennington vs the Raiders!). With Sanchez though it seems like it's something else. He played very well at new england in the first game and the playoff game (60% and 70% completion percentage). But he shit the bed against them (51% completion percentage, 3 ints) when the Jets were blown out.

    I think Sanchez's statistics will improve greatly if he can just moderate himself somehow in these bad games. Any QB will have worse stats in a loss since they're passing more and the other team knows it. But they're usually not as bad as Sanchez gets.

    TL;DR- Sanchez helps the Jets win games sometimes and can be reasonably accurate when he's having a good game. His bad games are really bad though which drags down his averages. He's not a game manager, he's a QB with a whole lot of upside if he can make his bad games a little less "bad".

    PS-Just for fun, take one of Sanchez's good games and compare it to Chad Henne last season.

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/11291/chad-henne

    You will see that Sanchez can put together a good 250 yards, 60% completion percentage along with a few TDs and 0 ints. Henne did not last year, but Henne had a better completion percentage on the whole year. As others have noted, completion percentage isn't everything...the important thing to realize is that Sanchez has the upside of an A game that he can play against any defense where he puts up great numbers. Not every QB can do that..It's good reason to be optimistic about where Sanchez will be in the coming years.
     
    #26 Organized Chaos, Aug 22, 2011
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2011
  7. DemoIsland

    DemoIsland Member

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    If he hits Plaxico on his right shoulder on the very first play, Plax can catch and run. Instead he throws it behind him. At times he looks excellent and at points you just scratch your head.
     
    #27 DemoIsland, Aug 22, 2011
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2011
  8. Organized Chaos

    Organized Chaos Well-Known Member

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    Also, lots of articles overlook Sanchez's rushing TD's and playoff performances last season when evaluating his gameplay. When you add it all up he was:

    25TD's (3 rushing) vs 14 ints.

    Much better than the 17tds vs 13 ints that writers reference in articles stating how Sanchez is 'holding back the Jets'
     
  9. LostInMA

    LostInMA Active Member

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    In his defense, it was pretty shitty out
     
  10. nyjunc

    nyjunc 2008 TGG Bryan Cox "Most Argumentative" Award Winn

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    I'd have to see the replay again but I remember seeing if he led him there were defenders there so it looks like a poorly thrown ball but in reality it wasn't. I reserve the right to change my mind on this if I see a better angle.
     
  11. Zach

    Zach Well-Known Member

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    I thought the route was hook (or curl or comeback. whatever), and neither go nor fade. The pass was right on, right in the middle of three Bungles defenders.
     
    #31 Zach, Aug 22, 2011
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2011
  12. rholt168

    rholt168 Active Member

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    It also was a curl route.
     
  13. Jets n Boys

    Jets n Boys Banned

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    Yes, Sanchez was just 56% on passes behind LoS. Lets admit it, he wasn't the most accurate passer in the NFL the last two years and that's where he needs work. The 20 odd dropped passes also didn't help his cause.
     
  14. Jets n Boys

    Jets n Boys Banned

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    Thats a great point right there. I tend to agree with you. His rushing TDs should be considered too, cuz he lead the drives and could've attempted a couple of slants or quick hits for passing TDs, instead, he or OC opted for a QB sneak/draw/run.
     
  15. Big Blocker

    Big Blocker Well-Known Member

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    The point about streakiness is a good one. I am not sure what is involved with that, and the lucky thing is he's played relatively well in the playoffs. But his overall season numbers have suffered very much from his performance in a few regular season games.
     
  16. Jets n Boys

    Jets n Boys Banned

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    http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2011082151/2011/PRE2/bengals@jets?module=HP11_cp#tab:watch

    Absolutely correct. I think the throw was on his outside shoulder on purpose so that Plax can stop, and turn away from the defender. Plus, he was not supposed to lead Plax. Plax was suppose to come to a stop to catch the ball. Wasn't exactly a deep slant from what I saw in the replay.
     
  17. m0nk3y

    m0nk3y New Member

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    Am I going crazy? Look at that last row, "Pass Thrown 31-40": it has 14 attempts and 3 completions. How is that possibly equal to 30.8%? My "rough" math has it at 21.4%. Is Sanchez really #15 or are Christopher Harris' numbers completely wrong?
     
  18. Jets n Boys

    Jets n Boys Banned

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    It should read 13 4, not 14 3. Typo, but I just noticed it too.
     
  19. m0nk3y

    m0nk3y New Member

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    Ah, now that actually works. Thanks.
     
  20. Zach

    Zach Well-Known Member

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    I don't think so.

    The ball was placed between three defenders (the camara is showing Plax at a poor angle). If the ball was thrown at the outside shoulder, then the safety up top has a play. Plax had two defenders (Safeties - it was a cover 2) ahead of him, and one behind. (Obviously, the CB) If the outsider WR (I couldn't see who) could block the safety, then it would make sense - the safety had a clear lane at Plax, and the WR was not ahead of Plax to throw the block at him. It was a curl (or hook - I can't tell which from the play video) route, and I think the ball placement was very good.

    Edit: Holmes was the outside receiver, but Holmes motioned inside, so there was NO OUTSIDE HELP. If Sanchez threw the ball at the outside shoulder of Plax, then safety could have a very good play. It's a classic cover two, and two safeties were watching Sanchez all along. If you intend to bicker about Sanchez not hitting Plax in his stride, maybe you have a better shot if you talk about dropping the ball in front of Holmes instead. (Holmes beat his defender and had three steps on him, and was running away from the safety in the left. That safety was watching Holmes and Plax, but couldn't decide which way he should react - caught with his pants down basically because of Holmes. Sanchez was very well protected, so if he pumped once to Plax - and provided both safeties bit - then Holmes could have a TD on that play, as he had no one ahead of him but a lot of green grass.)

    Edit 2: What's even more encouraging is that, Plax was bumped at the line - but that didn't alter the timing of the pass. He basically knew when he had to get open, and got himself open at that precise timing even after getting bumped at the line. If he stays healthy, he will be a serious weapon this season. I don't think I could see that from Braylon, frankly.
     
    #40 Zach, Aug 22, 2011
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2011

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