Any team that can't run on 3rd and 1.9 has no business being anywhere near the playoffs. 3rd and 3 is where the passing questions start. With the Jets having the offensive posture they claim to be in right now (and it's a very weak claim at this point) passing the ball on 3rd and short after a 2nd down incompletion is further reinforcement of the fact that they're so confused on offense that nobody including the Jets can figure out what they're doing. The Jets offense right now is a bewildering maze of about 3 different systems living side by side. There's the bastardized Sid Gillman offense, which is passing oriented and uses a ton of motion to unmask coverages and defeat the blitz (however Gillman advocated throwing the ball deep a lot and Schotty has never done that), there's the WCO, which Schotty claims not to use but looking at the patterns he asks his receivers to use this is obviously not true) which stretches the field heavily and uses the pass to setup the run, and then there's the Ground and Pound which basically is about playing smashmouth football and taking shots down the field when necessary. I don't think any of the great QB's that are playing right now would be happy in the offense the way it is currently constructed. They'd be more successful than Sanchez is but they'd much rather be in an offense built to their strengths instead of one built to the schizophrenic whims of the OC and HC who have been fighting about which offense to run from day one.
3rd and almost 2 is an incredibly difficult down and distance to run against, there was nothing wrong w/ the call on 2nd or 3rd down. 2nd down we had a big play but the ball was high, 3rd down we got the pass batted down. It happens.
good post, id like to also mention, that this argument that we would complain if we ran and didnt get it, is asinine. first off, its complete heresy, and secondly, i rarely see people complaining when schotty makes the right call and it doesnt work. sanchez fucked up the throw to keller on a good call on 2nd and 1, keller was wide open and would have gotten a few more yards if he caught the ball. but the reason that is a good playcall is because even if you miss the completion its only a yard or 2 for the first, which you expect to be able to pick up on the ground if needed. throwing on 3rd and 1 after an incompletion with a quarterback who has accuracy issues is a stupid call.
I don't understand all the Wildcat hate. It can be effective if used properly and in the right situations. Here are the Wildcat plays from yesterday: 1st QUARTER: 2-7-NYJ29 (9:38) Direct snap to S.Greene. S.Greene right end to NYJ 32 for 3 yards 1-10-NYJ48 (8:06) (Shotgun) Direct snap to J.Kerley. J.McKnight left end to NYJ 47 for -1 yards 3-2-WAS18 (5:16) Direct snap to S.Greene. S.Greene right tackle to WAS 17 for 1 yard 3rd QUARTER 1-10-WAS29 (6:22) Direct snap to J.Kerley. J.Kerley right tackle to WAS 23 for 6 yards 4th QUARTER 1-10-WAS35 (5:32) Direct snap to L.Tomlinson. L.Tomlinson right end to WAS 30 for 5 yards 2-9-WAS9 (3:48) Direct snap to S.Greene. S.Greene right tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. So, 6 runs for 23 yards (3.8 ypc) and a TD. 3 times it was run on 1st and 10, 2 times on second and long, and 1 time on 3rd down. The only play I had a problem with was 3rd and 2.
Finally Schotty gives his haters some real material on one play yesterday, in the fourth Quarter, 3-1-NYJ 20 (9:43) 6-M.Sanchez pass incomplete short middle to 82-M.Mulligan (96-B.Cofield). WTF??? That made no sense at all. Maybe they were thinking Mulligan is so little used as a target in the passing game that they would catch Washington sleeping or something, but they should have run the ball. Especially at that point, since Sanchez was in the middle of another one of his inconsistent stretches. More generally you have to wonder what the CS was thinking in putting in the wildcat plays. They were not uniformly awful, but they accomplished little good overall. What was the point? Brad Smith is not on the team anymore. But... before the Schotty Haters blame him exclusively for that, I would have to think that Ryan knew the plan was to use the wildcat here and there against Washingon.
The reason I don't like Schotty's schemes is THEY DON'T WORK. They're ineffective. He ran Chad Pennington out of town, having him throw 27 TD's and 25 Int's over a season and a half when Chad threw 75 TD's and 39 Int's over the rest of his career. Brett Favre threw 22 TD's and 22 Int's under Schotty with 486 TD's and 314 Int's over the rest of his career. I figure you give Mark Sanchez to a real offensive coordinator right now and he's probably good for 30 TD's and 10 Int's over the course of a season because he's managing to keep things under control with Schotty.
Do you guys not understand he had Chad coming off of TWO shoulder surgeies the previous 2 years? Do you guys not understand he got Favre in a new system for the first time in 16 years a month before the season and favre was busy giving Pakcer opponents tips rather than studying the playbook?
I'm sorry I don't buy it. Chad's accuracy was down a bit in 2006 to be true so maybe you give Schotty a wash there, but then in 2007 Chad was at 68.9% and still throwing too many picks. Schotty's system is a pick machine. It concentrates defensive players too close to each other by the maddening process of having receivers cross routes and settle down near each other without actually setting picks for each other. This results in clusters of defenders in proximity to the pass. Schotty rarely attacks the deep middle, allowing safeties the latitude to either go over the top on sideline routes or collapse into the short middle to give linebackers help over the top. It's just not a good system. Does it work now and then? Of course it does, because when you have NFL caliber QB's and receivers they're going to make some plays even in a bad system. Everybody kills Sanchez for lack of consistency, but this offense has been inconsistent at all points in Schotty's tenure here except for the 10 games he had a healthy Brett Favre. Even in those 10 games the Jets inexplicably got shut down a couple of times by teams that definitely did not have the capability to do that. The Raiders holding the Jets to 13 points in 2008 was a joke, given the offense had scored 56 points before that and would score 47 points after. That Raiders defense was really poor that year and they randomly shut Schotty and Favre down.
In 2007 Chad hurt his foot/ankle in week 1 and was never fully healthy. Not to mention the OL was a disgrace and our #1 RB averaged 3.6 YPC. By the way, Chad was 16-21 in that game(76%). It went downhill after he got hurt again. It's always black and white. It wasn't a 10 ga,es w/ a healthy Favre, it was a 4 game stretch a month AFTER he supposedly got hurt. The injury was an excuse. Our QB was outplayed by Jamarcus Russell in 2008 in oakland, that's why we lost
You've beaten this argument to death several times over. The situations with the three Qb's were all different, and the correlations you draw through them do not establish that Schotty is the causative element. Correlations do not establish causation, standing alone. You need to realize that you are not proving causation by reciting correlations over and over and over. Chad was a fragile player who had limited physical abilities, thus calling for limitations on the play calling and overall offensive scheme. When he went to Miami he was supplemented by a very effective wildcat based on the play of Brown and Williams. He also avoided reinjuring himself, until he did, and now he's not playing. There were in short several variables other than that he was no longer playing for Schotty that you leave out of the analysis. At least you acknowledge the Jets were effective with Favre until he got injured and after a slow start due to Favre's being out of shape and not practicing enough with a new team and new offensive approach. What Favre has to do with either of the other two is mystifying to me. You sound like you only saw the Jets not making the playoffs and did not actually watch the games to understand why. It was not because of Schotty. Sanchez started out as a rookie. Totally different situation for an OC to deal with. His inconsistency is more about lack of accuracy than about play calling. I personally would like to see quicker development of his play, and to some extent the OC has a role in that. But Sanchez's situation is unlike either Chad's or Favre's. Your argument fails to prove what you are trying to prove.
The cycle continues with this offense. I'm definitely no Schotty supporter but the fact of the matter is that Sanchez leaves plays out there every game. Yes, I understand Sanchez has played well in the clutch but his overall inconsistency can not be overlooked as a factor in the odd, strange play calling and vice versa and the vicious cycle keeps spinning. Every so often everything seems to click giving you just enough hope.
You're right and it shouldn't thrill anybody. But, outside of the Wildcat plays, Greene rushed 19 times for 75 yards. That's a 3.9 average. The Wildcat also makes the other team take time during the week for preparation.
Look how close Mark is to Pennington type numbers, this season. And if nothing else, Penny was a much more accurate passer. I would say, that given the evidence, Mark with a real OC would be exactly what you just said. 2 or 3 TD's a game, a pic every other game.
Occam's razor: the simplest answer is usually the most likely one. The Jet's offense has been flat except for a 10 game period when the Jets were not running Schotty's system. Given that Schotty is the one factor that has remained constant the simplest answer is that Schotty's systems doesn't work well enough to score a lot of points.
Jets on target to post a high in points scored in the Rex Ryan Era. 2009-348 Points scored 2010-367 Points scored 2011-290 points scored in 12 games Lam
Occam's razor does not require that identified variables and causative elements must be ignored. It also is not a useful analytical tool outside of understanding situations where the possible choices explaining the situation are mutually exclusive, as is the case where more than one element can be the cause. Many things go into the performance of something as complex as the Jets offense. Your whole assumption that one variable causes the outcome is flawed and based on nothing.
With all due respect, I have to wonder if you actually consider Schottenheimer's system effective. I have been crying out from the bottom of my lung for quite some time that matching short passing game with ground attack is a disaster in the making (and finally br4dw4y5ux caught on it too - thank GOD!) and I have yet to hear from anyone (especially from those in SDF camp) how this idea is wrong. So I ask you - do you think execution is that huge of a problem to disguise an otherwise functional and effective offensive designs? I am asking this because 1. I do not even think Schottenheimer's system is functional one under any circumstances and 2. even if it were, that then means Schottenheimer cannot train the offensive crew to perform in his system like a well-oiled machine, either due to the lack of personnel, or for whatever reasons. We have seen from Denver and Miami this season, how an OC should be able to adapt to what he has, and make a production out of what he has. (Miami did start slowly, with Henne and whatnot - but once they stabilized the QB position, they made a run of 4 straight Ws.) Now, you need to tell me, if Schottenheimer could bring success of similar magnitude, if he were in those shoes. My guess is no. He is totally incapable of adjusting to the personnel he has. (Or that was what was happening in the past half decade.)
No. My reasoning is based on what has changed and not changed as the same results were being obtained year after year. We have seen multiple QB's now indicted as being the flaw in the whole. Chad didn't have the arm and was injury prone, Clemens was shaky and inaccurate, Sanchez is inaccurate although hardy on the field. That's what it boils down to. We could keep watching the Jets cycle QB's through here for another decade and unless they went to get the hall of fame bound QB who told Schotty to fuck off so he could run something he was good at we'd get the same results. The only QB who really succeeded for any period of time under Schotty was the guy with more pull than him and the stature to tell him what the Jets were going to run on any given play. Everybody else has failed to live up to performance expectations and they have all done so in different ways. A system in which neither Chad Pennington, the hyper-accurate dinker and dunker nor Mark Sanchez, the strong-armed mid-range thrower, succeeds is just a bad system. The Jets should have fired Schotty at the end of the season last year. Having to switch back and forth between his system and Ground and Pound again should have told them all they meeded to know about his ability to develop Mark Sanchez. Instead we have this season as a result.
