Yeah, but you'd never know they were the second coming until they got out on the field and played. At least with QB there are some measurables were you can get a reasonable idea if the guy is worth betting the farm on. In addition, the risk/reward is more balanced with QB. If you figure right, it could mean a championship. However, a DE or OLB no matter how good, isn't going to propel your team to a championship.
Yes, indeed. Very costly to move up but only for a year or two, not for his career. After that, you can begin drafting talent to complement your prize. The model I like is what the Giants did to get Eli. They pretty much bet the farm on him and it paid off. It's definitely a risk/reward situation but I think the odds are better you'll get your franchise QB than hoping to find the next Tom Brady in the later rounds.
True, the odds are definitely better of finding a franchise caliber QB at the top of the draft than in the middle or lower rounds. I think such a trade impacts the QB and team for more than just a year or two. When you spend your #1 draft pick on a player, barring injury or bust, you expect that player to be a starter for you for at least the next 7 years, if not longer. When a team trades up to #1 or #2 in the draft, they are giving up at a minimum their #1 pick and #2 pick, and unless they're only a spot or two away (drafting #3 or #4), they're going to have to give up more picks than that. If your team is drafting in the 10-20 area or worse, then you are giving up multiple #1 picks, and most likely multiple #2 and/or #3 picks. IMO you don't replace those players easily or in 1-2 years. The only way it doesn't have a huge impact on your team is if you already pretty much have a solid team you're just missing the QB.
One never knows for certain, but players like Vonn Miller, LT, and Clowney were said to be "can't miss" prospects akin to Peyton Manning and the Colts' QB whose name escapes me at the moment.
I guess you mean Andrew Luck. Yes, agree. However, I would never bet the farm on a Miller or a Clowney. Don't think those types of players provide enough of an impact to propel a team to a championship. Case in point: JJ Watt. No doubt a great player, but his play never made the difference to get his team into the playoffs, much less a championship. On the other hand, I would have bet the farm on Luck even though his results have been disappointing so far. But I think everyone can see the talent and it's just a matter of finding the right supporting cast and/or CS.
What about Vonn Miller? Do you think the Broncos would have gotten to the SB last season, much less won it without Miller? I don't.
Good question! When I think of betting the farm, I see a minimum of a 1st and 2nd round this year and a 1st next year and probably a 3rd next year to boot. That is what I'd be willing to pay to move up to No. 1 to draft a QB who I thought was going to be great. Miller is a great player and certainly has lived up to his No. 2 overall selection. Also not denying that his play was instrumental in the Broncos success. Still, I don't think I would pay that price for a defensive player even one as great as he is in hindsight. It just goes to who I think has a greater impact on the overall success of a team: a great QB, or a great defensive player. I'd take the great QB.
Oh, if it was a choice between the two, I definitely agree that the QB wins every time!!! I'm just saying that if you already had your QB in place that it could be worth trading up to get a Vonn Miller to add the dominant piece to your D.
How the hell do you not know who Andrew Luck is? Correction: How the hell do you spend your menial message board life telling people they don't know NFL football and then admit you can't remember who Andrew Luck is? "Thorry, GraNCdson, we can't afford a 62.95 newfangled thatellite bill on my thocial thecurity, my twenty kitteth aren't feeding themthelvth!" *granny wink*
Anyway he gets fired by the end of the season? He did bring us to 10-6 and at max can only get us 9-7 (doubtful though). I fear they may grant him another season, especially if he beats NE this Sunday. Depends. Guy isn't a good coach nor is Fitz our guy.
Trading up, yes, but not at the price of a QB. When the game is close in the 4th Q, which player is more likely to win the game for you? That's the guy you bet the farm for. Case in point: Remember when Clowney was coming out and considered a can't miss prospect? I don't know what Houston was asking, but the telling factor was: no team was willing to pay the price whatever it was to trade up to get him. Happy TG to all TGG!.
Idk about the odds but a top 3 pick QB has about a 50/50 chance to be successful ... you add the Jets to the mix and it goes down to 30/70 I rather pick a guy in the mid rounds and hope it pays off as opposed to betting the farm on one guy ... how many top end quarterbacks were top 3 picks look at the top end guys Rodgers, Ben, Flacco, Eli, Carr, Dak, Brady, Wilson ... none of em were top 3 it isn't about drafting high it's about having an organization that knows how to develop a guy and we sure as hell don't
I've said it before and I'll say it again we should draft a quarterback in the second round every year until it hits
Since we'll be drafting DT's or CB's in the first round every year, this makes sense... In a bizarro JetWorld kinda way.
You're absolutely right about the odds being against getting the QB pick right, but even if they are 30/70 like you say, they have to be less than that if you pick in the later rounds. I'm not sure I agree about having an organization that knows how to develop a QB. What development did Wilson, Dak and Ben have? They just came in and played at a high level. It helps to be lucky.
They might be less in the later rounds but my point was don't bet the farm on a 30% success rate ... as for QB development yes it makes a difference where a guy goes ... I'll give you an example if we drafted Dak he would be sitting on the bench while we start FItzpatrick not ever knowing if he can actually play ... if Ben or Wilson went to the Browns they would rot that's just how life works
